On June 12, 2026, SpaceX debuted on the Nasdaq under the ticker SPCX, with an IPO price of $135 per share, valuing the company at approximately $1.77 trillion. The IPO raised around $75 billion, surpassing Saudi Aramco’s 2019 record to become the largest public offering in history. SPCX opened at $150 and closed at $161 on its first trading day, marking a 19.34% gain. However, within just two weeks, SPCX experienced a sharp swing from its peak to a significant pullback.
As of June 24, 2026, SPCX closed at $154.54, down 1.01% for the day and 19.43% over the past five trading sessions. After three consecutive declines, the stock fell below its first-day closing price, dropping about 30% from last week’s high. This volatility reflects three overlapping structural pressures: the Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance suppressing global risk assets, anticipated supply shocks from large-scale share unlocks around August, and a fundamental valuation gap, as highlighted by Morningstar’s $62 fair value estimate. This article analyzes these three factors and discusses Gate’s unique advantages for trading SPCX.
Federal Reserve Hawkishness: The Macro Backdrop Suppressing Risk Asset Valuations
SPCX’s pullback is not an isolated event. On June 24, 2026, Bitcoin dropped below $60,000, hitting a year-to-date low of $59,018. The total crypto market cap fell to $2.12 trillion, down 2.65% from its recent high. The macro driver behind this wave of risk asset sell-offs is the market’s expectation of continued hawkish monetary policy from the Federal Reserve.
The US Dollar Index climbed to around 101.5, near a 13-month high, reflecting ongoing expectations of further Fed rate hikes and rising demand for safe-haven assets. The 10-year US Treasury yield remained near 4.5%, continuing to limit the upside for risk asset valuations. Higher risk-free yields reduce the relative expected returns on equities and other risk assets, putting particular pressure on high-valuation growth stocks that are not yet profitable.
The correlation between crypto markets and tech stocks has been especially pronounced during this sell-off. A correction in Asia-led semiconductor stocks dragged the Nasdaq down 2.21%, with crypto assets following suit. As a high-valuation stock with exposure to aerospace, satellite communications, and AI narratives, SPCX’s risk premium is naturally under pressure in this macro environment. Arthur Hayes predicts that Bitcoin’s base price could approach $40,000 over the next six months as the Fed’s hawkish stance continues to constrain the crypto market. While this forecast targets digital assets, the logic applies equally to high-beta stocks like SPCX—when macro liquidity tightens, assets whose valuations depend on future cash flows are often repriced first.
It’s also important to note that SPCX’s correlation with the tech sector extends beyond macro trends to capital flows. Bitcoin spot ETFs have seen persistent outflows, with the 7-day average net outflow nearing $300 million per day. This suggests institutional investors are systematically reducing risk exposure rather than buying the dip. This contraction in risk appetite similarly affects institutional allocation decisions for SPCX.
August Share Unlocks: The Timing of Supply Shocks
The second structural risk facing SPCX is the imminent large-scale share unlocks. Currently, only about 5% of SPCX’s total shares are freely tradable, with the remainder still under lockup. This extremely low float amplifies early volatility and means that future supply releases will have a significant impact on price.
According to public information, SPCX’s share unlocks will occur in phases:
The first unlock is expected between late July and early August 2026, on the second trading day after the company releases its first post-IPO quarterly report. Around 20% of insider shares—including those held by employees and pre-IPO investors—will become tradable. Additionally, if SPCX closes at or above $175.50 on at least five of the ten trading days before the Q2 earnings date, an extra 10% of conditional shares will also be unlocked.
Subsequent unlocks will take place every 2 to 4 weeks from August through October 2026, with each batch representing roughly 7% of total shares, spreading selling pressure throughout Q3. By around August 20, the cumulative unlocked proportion is expected to reach about 37%; by around September 9, it will rise to roughly 44%, increasing the tradable share count by about 900%. The standard 180-day lockup period will expire around December 2026.
This unlock schedule means that from August through year-end, SPCX’s tradable supply will shift from extremely scarce to relatively abundant. If demand does not expand in tandem, the increase in supply will exert ongoing downward pressure on price. It’s also worth noting that pre-IPO investors’ cost basis is far below the current market price—SPCX’s IPO price was $135—so even with a significant pullback from current levels, early investors may still choose to take profits.
Morningstar’s $62 Fair Value: Quantifying the Valuation Gap
The third risk for SPCX is the wide valuation gap between institutional research estimates and market pricing. After SpaceX announced its $60 billion all-stock acquisition of AI programming platform Cursor’s developer Anysphere, Morningstar lowered its fair value estimate for SpaceX from $63 to $62 per share.
Morningstar noted that this deal pushed an already richly valued stock further into "expensive" territory. The $62 fair value suggests about 69% downside from the current market price, with SPCX trading at roughly 3.2 times the analyst estimate. Morningstar called SPCX one of the most expensive stocks in its coverage universe.
This valuation is grounded in detailed financial modeling. SpaceX generated $18.7 billion in revenue in 2025, and Morningstar projects that to grow to $36.8 billion in 2026. However, even at the forecasted 2026 level, SpaceX’s revenue would only match Micron Technology’s from last year, while Amazon’s revenue is more than 19 times higher. SPCX trades at 141 times 2025 revenue and nearly 78 times projected 2026 revenue—triple Broadcom’s multiple and 26 times Amazon’s. Since SpaceX is still unprofitable, traditional earnings-based valuation metrics are not yet applicable.
Morningstar’s model assumes SpaceX will eventually develop rapidly reusable Starships and successfully commercialize orbital AI data centers. However, the firm states, "Both of these engineering challenges remain unsolved, and we do not expect them to be resolved before at least 2028." In its most optimistic "moonshot" scenario, Morningstar values SpaceX at $154 per share, but assigns only a 7% probability to that outcome.
It’s important to note that Morningstar is not the only institution cautious on SPCX. Analyst price targets range from a high of $227 to Morningstar’s $62 fair value, making SPCX one of the most hotly debated large IPOs of 2026. This lack of consensus is itself a risk signal—when the market cannot agree on a fair price, stocks are more prone to swings driven by sentiment and liquidity rather than fundamentals.
Gate’s Differentiated Advantages for Trading SPCX
Against this backdrop of triple risk factors, the choice of trading platform is crucial for execution efficiency and cost control. Gate offers several unique advantages for trading SPCX.
24/7 Trading Hours. Gate is the first platform to offer 24/7 trading across US, Hong Kong, and Korean markets. This allows investors to respond to market developments outside of regular US trading hours, providing flexibility to manage positions during major news or macro events.
Fractional Shares. Gate supports trading in increments as small as 0.01 shares, enabling investors to gain exposure to SPCX with whatever funds they have, without being limited to whole-share multiples. This significantly lowers the entry barrier, especially with SPCX trading above $150 per share.
Low Trading Costs. The VIP threshold requires just $2,000 in holdings, and trading fees can be as low as 0.023%. This competitive fee structure benefits active traders and those employing swing strategies.
Conclusion
SPCX currently faces three major risks—Fed hawkishness, August share unlocks, and Morningstar’s $62 fair value estimate—which exert pressure from macro liquidity, micro supply structure, and fundamental valuation perspectives. These factors do not operate in isolation: a hawkish Fed dampens risk appetite, making high-valuation stocks more vulnerable to supply shocks and negative news; valuation gaps increase the likelihood of sharp price swings in the absence of consensus.
For investors, understanding these structural risks is more important than simply tracking daily price moves. Key variables for SPCX’s medium-term trajectory include the timing of the August earnings window and initial unlocks, the Fed’s July policy meeting, and the business updates in SpaceX’s first earnings report as a public company. Gate’s 24/7 trading, low entry barrier, and fractional share features provide investors with the tools to adjust positions flexibly across different timeframes.
FAQ
Q: What was SPCX’s IPO price?
SPCX went public on Nasdaq on June 12, 2026, with an IPO price of $135 per share, valuing the company at about $1.77 trillion and raising approximately $75 billion—the largest IPO in US stock market history.
Q: When exactly will SPCX shares be unlocked?
The first unlock is expected between late July and early August 2026 (the second trading day after the Q2 earnings report), releasing about 20% of insider shares. From August to October, additional batches of roughly 7% will be unlocked every 2 to 4 weeks. The standard 180-day lockup expires around December 2026.
Q: Why did Morningstar assign SPCX a $62 fair value?
After SpaceX’s $60 billion acquisition of Cursor, Morningstar cut its fair value estimate to $62 per share. Their model values SPCX at about 141 times 2025 revenue—far above peers—and assumes that key milestones like Starship reusability and orbital AI data centers won’t be validated before at least 2028.
Q: What are the advantages of trading SPCX on Gate?
Gate offers 24/7 trading, fractional shares starting at 0.01, VIP trading fees as low as 0.023%, and allows participation using USDT without needing an overseas brokerage account.
Q: What is SPCX’s current float ratio?
At present, only about 5% of SPCX’s total shares are freely tradable, with the rest under lockup. As phased unlocks begin in August, the float will gradually expand.
