On June 5, 2026, S&P Dow Jones Indices officially announced that Marvell Technology (MRVL) will be added to the S&P 500 Index before the market opens on June 22. This marks a milestone for a leading company in AI infrastructure entering the mainstream index system. More importantly, it means that over $20 trillion in global passive funds tracking the S&P 500 will be required to buy MRVL shares during the quarterly rebalancing window, creating a quantifiable mechanism for short-term incremental capital inflows. Is this "index inclusion effect" merely a liquidity-driven price pulse, or does it offer a sustainable source of alpha?
Inclusion Event: How an AI Chip Company Reached the S&P 500 Threshold
The S&P 500 Index has two core eligibility criteria for constituent stocks: first, the company must meet a minimum market capitalization requirement; second, it must report positive GAAP net income for four consecutive quarters. Marvell had previously appeared on the candidate list but failed to pass the profitability test.
This hurdle was officially cleared in fiscal year 2026 (ending January 31, 2026). According to Marvell’s financial report, the company posted full-year net revenue of $8.195 billion, up 42% year-over-year, with GAAP diluted earnings per share of $3.07, representing an 81% increase from the previous year. In the first quarter of fiscal year 2027 (ending April 30, 2026), net revenue reached $2.418 billion, up 28% year-over-year. The AI data center business was the main driver behind this breakthrough—generating over $6.1 billion in revenue for fiscal 2026, a 46% year-over-year increase.
On the day of the announcement, Marvell’s stock rose about 6% after hours, as the market began to price in the inclusion effect. That same week, Jensen Huang publicly stated at Computex that Marvell could become the next trillion-dollar chip company. NVIDIA has invested $2 billion in Marvell as a strategic partner, deepening collaboration around the NVLink Fusion platform and advancing silicon photonics technology for next-generation AI infrastructure connectivity.
Passive Funds’ "Forced Buying" Mechanism: Why Index-Tracking Funds Must Buy
Being added to the S&P 500 has a direct impact on stock prices due to structural rules in the passive investment ecosystem. When a company joins the S&P 500, all funds tracking the index—including ETFs and index mutual funds—must buy shares of the new constituent before the index adjustment takes effect. This requirement is embedded in fund contracts and is not subject to fund managers’ discretion; it’s a systematic buy order.
As of June 2026, global passive assets tracking the S&P 500 exceed $20 trillion. Consider the three largest S&P 500 ETFs: Vanguard VOO surpassed $1 trillion in assets under management in 2026, iShares IVV holds about $859.5 billion, and State Street SPY manages roughly $784.6 billion. Together, these ETFs account for over $2.64 trillion, representing only a portion of the tracking capital pool. Numerous index mutual funds, pension plans, insurance assets, and international investment portfolios tracking the S&P 500 are also subject to this rule.
The calculation logic for capital inflows is: Marvell’s inclusion weight in the S&P 500 multiplied by the total global passive assets tracking the index. Based on the S&P 500’s current total market cap of about $60 trillion and Marvell’s free float market cap of approximately $230 billion, its inclusion weight is around 0.38%. With passive assets tracking the S&P 500 exceeding $20 trillion, index funds are expected to buy between $70 billion and $80 billion worth of MRVL shares during the adjustment window. This estimate follows the public index methodology, but the actual weight will be determined by S&P Dow Jones Indices’ final data before inclusion, and the purchase amount will also depend on share prices around the inclusion date. Nevertheless, the scale is significant enough to materially impact MRVL’s supply-demand dynamics in the short term.
Regarding the buying window, S&P Dow Jones Indices announced that this adjustment will take effect before the US market opens on Monday, June 22, 2026. Index funds typically complete portfolio adjustments over the weekend between the close of trading on Friday, June 19, and the market opening on June 22. This highly concentrated buying window, combined with the inclusion weight, forms a complete transmission chain from index inclusion to capital inflow and ultimately to stock price impact.
Historical Inclusion Effect Backtesting: 40 Years of Data Reveals Statistical Patterns
Academic and Wall Street research has amassed extensive empirical samples on the excess returns of stocks added to the S&P 500. Multiple studies covering 1980–2020 systematically backtested the inclusion effect, revealing the following statistical patterns.
In the 1980s, stocks added to the index saw average excess returns of about 3%–4%, while those removed dropped by about 4%–5%. The 1990s marked the peak of the inclusion effect, with added stocks gaining about 7%–8% in excess returns and removed stocks falling by about 16%. In the 2000s, the effect began to wane, with added stocks gaining about 5% and removed stocks declining by about 12%. Between 2010 and 2020, excess returns for added stocks fell below 1%, and declines for removed stocks also narrowed to less than 1%, making it statistically impossible to reject the null hypothesis of "no excess returns." During this period, the inclusion effect in the Russell 1000, Russell 2000, NASDAQ 100, and S&P MidCap and SmallCap indices showed a similar trend of diminishing impact.
Research attributes this decline to two main factors. First, the explosive growth of passive investment attracted arbitrage capital that "front-runs" the inclusion, causing excess returns to be realized partially or entirely before the official announcement. Second, the predictability of S&P 500 constituent changes improved, allowing market participants to anticipate inclusion candidates and position themselves ahead of the announcement, shifting the price discovery process earlier. Overall, index inclusion still has a positive impact, with excess returns concentrated around the announcement window, but the scale has shrunk significantly since the 1990s, and capturing these returns requires greater precision in timing. For large-cap stocks, the inclusion effect is more stable, while mid- and small-cap stocks tend to revert to the mean more noticeably after inclusion.
How to Trade MRVL Directly with USDT on Gate Stocks
For crypto investors holding USDT, Marvell’s S&P 500 inclusion and the resulting passive fund buying effect present a quantifiable investment event window. Gate’s newly launched real US stock trading feature offers crypto users a seamless way to participate directly in MRVL and other US equities.
Product Coverage
Gate Stocks allows users to trade over 10,000 US stocks and ETFs directly with USDT, covering the NYSE, NASDAQ, NYSE Arca, NYSE American, and BATS—major US securities markets and liquidity networks. This means users can invest in MRVL using their existing USDT balance without currency conversion or opening a separate overseas brokerage account.
Trading Thresholds and Fees
Gate supports fractional share trading starting from as little as 0.01 shares, making it especially suitable for high-priced stocks. Marvell currently trades at a high price, so fractional trading significantly lowers the entry barrier for retail investors. On the fee side, Gate Stocks has fully integrated its VIP tier system; holding as little as $2,000 qualifies users for VIP status, granting access to exclusive rates as low as 0.023%.
Settlement Mechanism
Gate Stocks transactions are settled in real time with USDT, with no overnight holding fees or funding rates. For investors planning to hold through the inclusion window, costs are clear and manageable. Dividends are also automatically settled in USDT.
Compliance and Security
Gate partners with Alpaca, a licensed US broker-dealer, to provide users with direct access to US market infrastructure for real stock trading. User holdings are custodied by regulated brokerage partners, representing real, transferable stock assets.
How to Trade
After completing KYC verification, enter the TradFi section or stock trading area in the Gate App, transfer USDT to your stock account, and search for "MRVL" to start trading. Orders can be placed during both pre-market and after-hours sessions, covering about 16 hours of trading—ideal for flexible positioning around key announcement dates.
Conclusion
In summary, Marvell’s S&P 500 inclusion takes effect on June 22, 2026, and offers three layers of analytical value. From a data perspective, over $20 trillion in global passive funds tracking the S&P 500 and Marvell’s approximate 0.38% inclusion weight create a clear framework for capital inflows. Historically, 40 years of academic research on S&P 500 inclusions show that events generate positive excess returns around the announcement window, but the effect has diminished sharply since the 1990s, making it harder to capture and requiring more precise timing. Operationally, Gate Stocks enables crypto users to trade US equities directly with USDT, fractional shares, and low fees, providing an efficient way to access index inclusion events.
However, several constraints should be noted. First, stock prices may already reflect expectations ahead of the inclusion announcement, limiting gains on the actual effective date. Second, after the passive buying window closes, prices may experience a short-term "buy the rumor, sell the news" pullback due to the nature of incremental capital inflows. Third, excess returns observed in historical studies are statistical averages; their applicability to Marvell specifically depends on its valuation, the AI industry cycle, and overall market risk appetite. Fourth, Gate Stocks’ availability is subject to local regulatory frameworks, and some users may not be able to access the service.
As the AI infrastructure supply chain continues to attract market attention, index inclusion offers a unique perspective on the allocation value of AI chip stocks from a passive capital mechanism standpoint. Investors should assess trading opportunities during this window based on their own capital size, holding period, and risk preferences.
