The popularity of the Bitcoin Layer 2 track has recently surged, and Merlin Chain (MERL), as a representative project in this field, achieved a key breakthrough on July 24: South Korea’s leading exchange Bithumb announced the listing of MERL, driving its price to skyrocket by 20.53% in a single day, reaching a peak of $0.168, setting a new high in nearly 6 months. This "exchange effect" once again confirms the direct impact of market liquidity on token pricing, providing an opportunity for investors to reassess its value.
Project Positioning and Technical Advantages: The Scaling Engine of the Bitcoin Ecosystem
Merlin Chain is a native Bitcoin Layer 2 solution, with the core goal of enhancing the scalability of the Bitcoin network through ZK-Rollup technology, while being compatible with the Ethereum Virtual Machine (EVM), enabling developers to seamlessly deploy smart contracts and decentralized applications (dApp). Its technical architecture consists of three major modules:
- ZK-Rollup Batch Processing: Compressing transactions and settling them on the Bitcoin mainnet, achieving a speed increase of over 10 times and significantly reducing Gas fees;
- Decentralized Oracle Network: Connecting off-chain data to empower complex application scenarios such as DeFi;
- On-chain Fraud Proof: Ensuring transaction security through a dual verification mechanism.
In terms of team background, Bitmap Tech, led by founder Jeff Yin, is an OG team in the Bitcoin ecosystem, having launched popular Ordinals assets such as BRC-420 "Blue Box" and has deep ecological resources. Currently, over 150 dApps have been deployed on the Merlin chain, and its native DEX MerlinSwap has a daily trading volume of 450 million dollars, demonstrating active ecological demand.
Current Market Performance and Key Data (as of July 25, 2025)
- Price: $0.168 (peak after listing on Bithumb), 24-hour increase of 19.65%;
- Market Cap: $102 million (circulating supply of 725 million MERL), fully diluted valuation (FDV) of $294 million;
- Trading Volume: Driven by Binance perpetual contracts (50x leverage) and listing on Bithumb, single-day peak reached $793 million;
- On-chain Activity: Average daily active addresses in June were 13,000, an increase of 18% compared to May.
Technical analysis shows: Currently, $0.27 is a key support level. If it holds, it may rebound to $0.35; if it breaks, it could challenge $0.45. The RSI indicator is close to the oversold area (36.8), indicating potential short-term rebound momentum.
Price Prediction: Short-term Volatility and Long-term Potential
Analysts have differing opinions on the trend of MERL, but there is a general consensus that the Layer 2 sector’s dividends will provide long-term support:
| Time period | Minimum forecast | Highest Prediction | Potential Increase | Core basis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| end of 2025 | $0.35 | $0.60 | +108% | Ecosystem dApp growth and demand for leveraged trading |
| Early 2026 | $0.65 | $1.00 | +495% | DeFi/NFT application landing breakthrough |
| 2030 - 2035 | $1.80 | $3.88 | +2200% | Bitcoin Layer 2 large-scale adoption |
For example, CryptoHorizon analyst Michael Reed pointed out: "If Merlin occupies a 10% share in the Bitcoin DeFi staking scenario, the market value of MERL is expected to exceed $500 million (corresponding to a price of $0.70)."
Risks and Opportunities: Variables Investors Need to Focus On
Opportunity Directions:
- Exchange Incremental Effect: Bithumb has a large user base (27% of youth in South Korea hold crypto assets), new KRW trading pairs may continue to attract traffic;
- Technical Upgrades: The 15x speed upgrade of ZK-Rollup has been tested, and the mainnet launch may reduce transaction fees by 30%;
- Capital Inflow in the Bitcoin Ecosystem: Coinbase’s report predicts that the Layer 2 TVL will grow by 40% in the second half of 2025.
Risk Warning:
- Position Concentration: The top 5 addresses control 68.69% of the tokens, posing a potential selling pressure risk;
- Market Competition: Mature Layer 2 solutions like Optimism and Arbitrum have captured 80% of the developer share;
- Regulatory Uncertainty: South Korea’s "Travel Rule" requires KYC for cross-exchange transfers, which may restrict fund inflows to Bithumb.
Conclusion: Key Price Points and Strategy Recommendations
The short-term price momentum of MERL has been ignited by the exchange listing, but its long-term value still depends on the real demand for ecological applications and technical stability. Investors should focus on the following points:
- Break above $0.35: Confirm an upward trend, mid-term target $0.60;
- Drop below $0.27: Be cautious of large sell-offs and observe changes in on-chain data.
Against the backdrop of surging demand for Bitcoin Layer 2 scalability, if MERL can establish barriers in terms of dApp scale and user experience, it is expected to become a dark horse in the race.
