Bitcoin, ¿por qué está estancado en 70,000 dólares? Las estrategias de opciones se convierten en una fuerza clave de presión.

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bitcoin news Análisis de mercado Datos sobre derivados

2026-03-30 06:18:40

BTC-2,22%

Gate News message: The Bitcoin price has recently been continuously ranging between $65,000 and $75,000, with the market lacking a clear direction. In addition to geopolitical conflicts and the macro interest-rate environment, it is believed that institutional investors’ options strategies are an important factor limiting a breakout.

Since mid-February 2026, Bitcoin has repeatedly tested the $70,000 level but failed to break through. On the one hand, safe-haven demand driven by the Middle East situation provides bottom support to the price, making it difficult to fall below $65,000; on the other hand, rising U.S. Treasury yields weaken the appeal of risk assets and curb upside room.

The deeper cause comes from the derivatives market. Tesseract’s CEO, James Harris, noted that institutional funds have continued to sell out-of-the-money call options with higher strike prices throughout the first quarter, extracting additional returns by collecting premiums. This “covered call option” strategy is built on spot holdings, enabling investors to earn steady returns even in a sideways market.

This operation shifts a large amount of risk to market makers. Since market makers hold positive gamma positions, they need to buy when prices fall and sell when prices rise to maintain risk neutrality. This hedging behavior, in an invisible way, creates a “sell high and buy low” mechanism, thereby compressing the price volatility range and keeping Bitcoin in a long-term ranging structure.

Market data also corroborates this phenomenon. Bitcoin’s 30-day implied volatility index (BVIV) has recently fallen to about 56%, contrasting with rising volatility in stocks and commodities, indicating that market volatility is being artificially suppressed.

At present, Bitcoin’s trend is not only influenced by the macro environment, but is also deeply tied to the structure of derivatives. When yield strategies dominate capital flows, the price may continue to hold a range. Whether it can break through the key range in the future will depend on changes in capital allocation and whether volatility is released again. (CoinDesk)

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