1月15日消息，以太坊（ETH）在 2026 年初展现出明显反弹动能，年内累计涨幅约 14%，并在去年 12 月中旬以来首次触及 3400 美元关口，随后小幅回落至 3350 美元附近。此次上涨中，超过一半的涨幅集中出现在 1 月 13 日，当日美国通胀数据回落，同时特朗普公开敦促美联储降息，宏观环境的变化明显提振了风险资产情绪。
尽管短线有所震荡，但市场中长期看多以太坊的声音正在增强。白宫相关内部人士 Garret Bullish 近期发布最新分析，预测以太坊价格存在显著上行空间。他曾在 2025 年 10 月成功做空比特币并获得可观收益，因此其观点在市场中具备一定参考价值。
Garret Bullish 在报告中指出，以太坊已重新回到自去年 4 月启动的上升通道，并可能进入艾略特波浪理论中的第五浪阶段。他给出的第一目标价为 5413 美元，激进情景下甚至指向 7155 美元。以当前价格测算，基础目标意味着约 60% 的上涨空间。
他同时强调，宏观与地缘政治因素可能继续成为推升加密资产的重要变量。其研究显示，在中东地缘冲突背景下，加密市场往往出现超额表现。历史数据表明，冲突发生后 30 天内，以太坊平均涨幅约 27%，90 天内可达 39%。基于此判断，他认为 2026 年第一季度 ETH 表现有望显著强于市场平均水平。
不仅如此，机构层面的长期预测同样偏向乐观。渣打银行在最新报告中预计，以太坊在 2026 年可能触及 7500 美元，2027 年进一步上探 15000 美元，并将 2030 年的长期目标设定在 40000 美元。
从相对强弱角度看，ETH/BTC 比率自去年 12 月以来持续回升，显示以太坊相对比特币正在走强。若这一趋势延续，在宏观流动性改善的背景下，以太坊价格有望重新挑战 4000 美元上方区域，甚至为后续更高目标奠定基础。
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