Gate market data shows, August 18, after experiencing significant volatility, the intraday low Bitcoin price dropped to $114,866.58, currently closing at $115,188, with an intraday decline of 1.73%. This volatility occurred against the backdrop of Bitcoin’s multiple failed attempts to test the psychological resistance level of $118,000. Technical analysts pointed out that it has broken below the short-term trendline support and may test the support level of $114,500 in the short term.
The dominance continues to decline, and the market landscape is undergoing deep evolution.
The dominance of Bitcoin in the market (BTC Dominance) has fallen to a six-month low of 59%, significantly down from 65% in May. This key indicator measures the proportion of Bitcoin’s market capitalization relative to the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies, and its decline marks a systematic shift of funds towards other crypto assets.
CoinMarketCap detailed data shows:
- Bitcoin dominance: 58.7% (down 4.24%)
- Ethereum dominance: 13.9% (up 3.71%)
- Other alts total share: 27.4% (up 0.52%)
This structural shift has broken Bitcoin’s long-held dominance of over 60%, marking the largest drop since December 2024 (53.9%). The core driving forces come from two directions:
- Institutional capital shift: Ethereum ETFs saw record inflows of $2.3 billion in a single month.
- Increased investor risk appetite: With expectations of a shift in macro policy, funds are beginning to chase high Beta assets outside of Bitcoin.
Capital migration path: Ethereum leads the altcoin market recovery
Ethereum has become the biggest beneficiary of this round of capital migration. Its price rose 54% in a single month, significantly outperforming Bitcoin’s 10% increase during the same period. In mid-August, ETH briefly approached its historical high of $4,785, just a step away from breaking the record.
Institutional participation deepening is the core driving force:
- ETF issuers led by BlackRock and Fidelity saw inflows of $503 million in a single day (August 7)
- Industry giants like BitMine announced a $24.5 billion ETH accumulation plan
This capital shift has begun to spread to a broader range of alts:
- Chainlink (LINK) weekly increase of 23.1%
- Total market cap of the Ethereum ecosystem increased by 3.25% in 24 hours, reaching $734 billion
- Layer 1 projects like Solana and XRP are simultaneously attracting incremental capital inflow
alts season inflection point: historical indicators suggest market reversal
The Coinbase institutional research team pointed out for the first time in a report released on August 15: "The current market environment suggests that as September approaches, we may be迎来 a turning point in the全面altcoin season."
The definition standard is: At least 75% of the top 50 alts by market capitalization in the past 90 days have outperformed Bitcoin.
Although the current Altcoin Season Index is at 44 (below the critical value of 75), it has surged nearly 147% from below 25 in July. The historical similarities are noteworthy:
- Bitcoin’s dominance has experienced its first monthly bearish crossover since January 2021.
- Previous similar signals have triggered a sustained upward movement of alts for four months.
Technical aspects and macro environment: Dual factors driving market evolution
Bitcoin’s short-term technical structure shows weakness:
- Price has fallen below the EMA50 support line
- RSI indicator shows bearish divergence after being overbought
- Key support level has moved down to $114,500, resistance level remains at $118,500
The macro environment provides favorable support:
- The probability of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates in September reaches 92%
- The July CPI year-on-year is 2.7%, alleviating inflation concerns
- Two members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) have already voted in favor of lowering interest rates.
A low interest rate environment could release about $350 billion in retail funds from money market funds, further boosting risk appetite in the crypto market.
Future Outlook
As Bitcoin’s dominance approaches the critical watershed of 55%, the market is on the brink of a transition between old and new cycles. If the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates in September, Coinbase’s predicted "full altcoin season" could ignite Ethereum to break its historical peak of $4,785, and drive mainstream alts such as SOL and XRP to replicate ETH’s recent excess returns. Although BTC is projected to find short-term support at $114,500, in the medium to long term, the continuous inflow of institutional funds through ETFs and on-chain accumulation behavior still lays the foundation for Bitcoin to break past its previous high of $124,000. The cryptocurrency market has never been so diverse, nor has it ever been so full of tension.
