Since February 2026, the global financial market has been closely watching two sets of key data from across the Pacific: the US January Nonfarm Payrolls report released on February 10, and the US January Consumer Price Index (CPI) released on February 13. These two reports have effectively set the tone for the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy direction in the first half of the year. Despite the data painting a mixed picture, the market has reached a rare consensus: The Fed is almost certain to keep interest rates unchanged at its March policy meeting.
According to the latest data from the CME FedWatch tool, traders now see a 94% probability that the Fed will keep the federal funds rate target range steady at 3.50%–3.75% in March.
Nonfarm Payrolls Surpass Expectations: The "Anchor of Stability" in the Labor Market
The primary driver behind this market consensus is the unexpectedly robust labor market. Data released by the US Department of Labor on February 10 showed that seasonally adjusted nonfarm payrolls increased by 130,000 in January, far exceeding market expectations of 55,000 to 70,000. At the same time, the unemployment rate fell to 4.3%—its lowest level since August 2025.
This nonfarm report is significant because it eased concerns about a rapid cooling of the US economy. Although employment figures for all of 2025 were sharply revised downward, revealing underlying weakness in last year’s job market, the stronger-than-expected rebound in January demonstrates that, at current interest rates, corporate hiring demand remains resilient.
Recent remarks from Fed officials have reinforced this view. Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan noted that while the labor market had previously softened, employment prospects are gradually stabilizing. Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester went further, stating that current monetary policy is appropriate and that rates can remain unchanged. Strong employment data gives the Fed ample room to "wait and see." Even if inflation continues to ease, as long as the labor market doesn’t experience a dramatic downturn, the Fed has no urgent need to cut rates.
CPI Slowdown Confirms Trend: Inflation Eases but Risks Linger
If the nonfarm data provided justification for maintaining the status quo, the January CPI report released on February 13 paved the way for this decision—further strengthening the Fed’s resolve to remain patient.
The data shows that the US January unadjusted CPI rose 2.4% year-over-year, below the market expectation of 2.5% and marking a new low since May 2025. Core CPI also cooled to 2.5%, the lowest since March 2021. On the surface, the downtrend in inflation is clear. Lawrence Werther, Chief US Economist at Daiwa Capital Markets, commented that both headline and core inflation year-over-year increases have just met the minimum threshold for a patient policy stance.
However, beneath the surface, not all is calm. The data reveals that core services inflation (excluding housing)—a key focus for policymakers—jumped 0.6% month-over-month in January. This change could draw attention from regional Fed presidents who remain cautious about price increases. In addition, with the Trump administration’s new tariffs and the lagging effects of last year’s weaker dollar, imported inflationary pressures persist.
For the Fed, the January CPI report is "reassuring but not enough to declare victory." It confirms that inflation is trending lower, but the underlying details suggest that price pressures could return. In this "good but not good enough" scenario, maintaining the current policy and continuing to monitor developments is clearly the most prudent choice.
Why Is Market Consensus So Strong?
Overall, the reason why keeping rates unchanged in March has become market consensus is that the current data gives the Fed every reason to extend its "observation period."
On one hand, while inflation is cooling, it remains above the 2% target and core services inflation is still stubborn. On the other hand, the stabilization of the labor market has eliminated the immediate risk of a hard economic landing, so the Fed does not need to cut rates to support jobs. As Fed Governor Lisa Cook put it, recent data shows that the pace of cooling has "stalled." The Fed should remain patient until it is more confident that inflation will return to the 2% target.
Against this macro backdrop, the crypto market has found its own rhythm. As of February 14, Gate’s trading platform data shows that Bitcoin (BTC) has demonstrated resilience following the macro news, currently trading at $68,876.8 and consolidating in a narrow range between $68,500 and $69,200. This price action indicates that the market is digesting expectations of "delayed but not abandoned" rate cuts. As long as the Fed doesn’t pivot back to aggressive rate hikes, the current rate environment remains a relatively stable external condition for risk assets.
Ethereum (ETH) is also showing a strong correlation with Bitcoin, currently hovering around $2,048.94 and similarly awaiting further macro signals.
Conclusion
In the spring of 2026, the Fed appears especially composed in its rate decisions. The strength of January’s nonfarm data and the cooling CPI together create a safety net, allowing the Fed to confidently hold steady in March and continue observing the effects of fiscal policy and global economic changes. For traders—whether in traditional or crypto markets—the window before the March FOMC meeting may be the key moment to reassess asset allocations and patiently wait for clearer trends to emerge.
