Recently, the price movement of the Polygon Ecosystem Token (POL) has become a focal point in the market’s attention. After several weeks of sustained selling, POL is showing new signs of recovery, with its technical structure closely resembling the setup that triggered a 90% rally at the start of the year. However, as of February 14, 2026, Gate market data shows POL trading at $0.1011. While that’s a 5.45% gain over the past 24 hours, both on-chain data and derivatives markets reveal a critical turning point: current buying momentum has not yet fully cleared out sellers, and the market’s "flush-out" phase remains incomplete.
Similar Patterns, Different Dynamics: Buyers Active but Sellers Remain
A look at the candlestick chart shows that Polygon’s current price structure is indeed similar to the bottom formation seen before the 90% surge in January 2026. Since February 11, POL has rebounded nearly 13% and is now holding steady in the $0.095 to $0.102 range. At the same time, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) reveals a bullish divergence—prices hit new lows while the RSI’s lows are rising. This typically signals a weakening of selling pressure.
Divergence setup, source: TradingView
However, this bottoming process differs fundamentally from what happened in January. Back then, the market experienced a decisive "seller flush," with positions being aggressively cleared out and creating a clean base for buyers. This time, POL has tested the $0.087 area multiple times rather than breaking through in a single move. The formation of this "low zone" suggests that selling power has not been fully exhausted as it was previously. The supply hasn’t been completely absorbed, marking a major technical inflection point in the current bullish setup.
Cautious Signals from the Derivatives Market: Leverage Missing, Shorts in Control
This "incomplete sell-off" is also reflected in derivatives data. Unlike the January bull run, when leverage spiked (open interest soared over 140% in a short period), POL’s recent 13% price rebound has not been accompanied by a significant rise in open interest (OI), which remains steady around $18.8 million. This indicates that leveraged capital has not rushed in, and speculative sentiment remains cautious.
Open interest remains stable, source: Santiment
Even more noteworthy is the funding rate. Data shows the current funding rate has turned negative (near -0.012), meaning short sellers are dominating the market and are willing to pay to maintain their short positions. This stands in sharp contrast to the overwhelmingly bullish sentiment in January. Traders appear unconvinced by the sustainability of this rally and continue to bet on a price pullback.
Funding rate, source: Santiment
Whales Quietly Accumulating: Price Supporters or Rally Delayers?
While retail and short-term traders remain cautious, whale addresses have adopted a markedly different strategy. Since early February, the holdings of major POL whale addresses have risen from about 7.5 billion to nearly 8.75 billion tokens—an increase of roughly 16%. This quiet accumulation has been the main reason POL has repeatedly found support and rebounded near the $0.087 level.
POL whales, source: Santiment
Whale buying has provided a "price floor," absorbing market supply without triggering panic selling. However, this also has another effect: it delays the market’s final flush-out. Because whales are gradually accumulating rather than aggressively driving out weak sellers, selling pressure remains present in the market. As a result, the current price rise is more gradual than explosive, with bulls and bears locked in a standoff and neither side fully in control.
Key Price Levels Set the Stage: $0.118 and $0.083
With selling pressure not yet fully cleared, the validity of the technical setup will hinge on the breakout of key price levels.
- Key resistance above: $0.118. A decisive breakout above this level would signal that remaining selling pressure has been fully suppressed, potentially triggering a rush of leveraged capital and short covering, thus completing the market’s final flush-out. If this happens, price targets could extend to $0.137 or even $0.186.
- Key support below: $0.083 - $0.087. This is the most critical support zone at present. If POL falls below this range, it would confirm a new low, indicating that sellers still dominate the market and that the sell-off remains unfinished. In that case, prices could further decline to $0.072 or even $0.061.
Outlook: Finding Certainty Amid an "Unfinished Flush-Out"
Looking ahead, based on Gate market data as of February 14, 2026, Polygon (POL)’s short-term trajectory will revolve closely around these key price levels. While the 5.45% 24-hour gain has sparked optimism and market capitalization remains solid at $1.06B, the market’s internal structure suggests the path upward won’t be straightforward.
Long-term models indicate that by 2031, POL could see potential price swings of +94.00% from current levels. However, in the short term, the battle will be decided within the $0.083 to $0.118 range. For observers, rather than rushing to call a trend reversal, it’s wiser to patiently watch how these critical levels play out. Only when selling pressure is truly absorbed will Polygon’s next major rally have a solid foundation.
