On October 7, 2025, XRP is approaching the key psychological level of $3 after a continuous pump. Although the overall market sentiment is optimistic, technical analysis shows that XRP is currently in a critical area of convergence between bulls and bears, and a slight misstep could trigger a short-term pullback.
After experiencing a rise of over 120% in the first half of this year, XRP has become the focus of investors. The core question in the current market is: is this the starting point of the new Wave 3 main upward trend, or a "false breakout" before a temporary high?
1. XRP encounters strong resistance in the $2.97–$3 range.
As of the time of writing, XRP is at $2.92, with a daily pump of 1.8%. In the past 30 days, XRP once broke through $3 but quickly pulled back, showing that there is significant resistance in that range.
From a technical perspective, the $2.97–$3.00 range is a long-term resistance zone since 2018, with multiple historical price reversals.
- $3.00 is a psychological round number, and market sentiment can easily fluctuate at this level;
- $2.97 corresponds to the previous high point and the Fibonacci pullback level near 0.786;
- The trading volume has significantly increased in this range, indicating a fierce battle between bulls and bears.
If XRP If it can effectively hold above $3 and break out with increased volume, it may confirm the start of a new main upward wave. Conversely, if it faces resistance again, it may retest the support level in the range of $2.65–$2.70.
II. Technical Structure: Is Wave 3 or a Correction Wave?
Some traders believe that the current trend of XRP may be entering the third wave (Wave 3) phase of the Elliott Wave Theory. This wave is typically the strongest in terms of rise and the most active in trading.
From the daily chart, the ascending structure of XRP that started from the low of $1.45 has the prototype of a "five-wave rise" pattern:
- Wave 1: rose from $1.45 to $2.40;
- Wave 2: pullback to $1.85;
- Wave 3 is expected to target the range of $3.40–$3.80.
However, some analysts warn that this structure could also evolve into a Corrective Wave, especially in the context of a tightening macro environment and a failure to sustain increasing trading volume. If the price cannot hold above $2.80, the short-term pullback risk will intensify.
3. On-chain data: Activity is rising but capital outflow is slowing down.
According to Santiment data, the number of on-chain active addresses for XRP has increased by about 12% in the past 7 days, but the net inflow of funds has decreased by 8%.
This means that although trading is active, there is insufficient new buying momentum.
At the same time, "whale accounts" holding more than 10 million XRP have shown slight signs of reduction in the past two weeks, with the amount of XRP transferred to exchanges increasing by approximately 42 million.
Analysts point out that this behavior may be a short-term arbitrage operation or a preemptive defense against high-position risks.
4. Macroeconomic and Regulatory Environment: Double-Edged Sword Effect
After Ripple’s lawsuit with the U.S. SEC reached a preliminary settlement at the end of 2024, the market confidence in XRP significantly recovered. However, uncertainties in the regulatory environment still exist.
A recent draft in the United States regarding stablecoins and token classification may once again affect the market positioning of XRP. If XRP is officially defined as a "Payment Token," its advantages in cross-border settlements will be further highlighted, but if classified as a "security asset," compliance costs may increase.
From a macro perspective, the strength of the US dollar and the high interest rate environment have also weakened the attractiveness of some risk assets. If the Federal Reserve delays the rate cut cycle, it may exert continued pressure on the crypto market, including XRP.
5. Short-term Outlook: Divergence Between Bulls and Bears Intensifies
From a short-term perspective, the key range for XRP is:
- Support levels: $2.70, $2.50;
- Resistance levels: $2.97, $3.20;
- Breakthrough target: If it stabilizes at $3.20, it may aim for $3.50.
The market sentiment indicator shows that the long-short position ratio is approximately 1.08:1, indicating a mildly bullish state, but not extremely optimistic.
If BTC and ETH continue to fluctuate, XRP’s independent market still needs stronger capital flow and news support.
6. Conclusion: $3 is the turning point and also the touchstone.
XRP is currently at a critical structural boundary: a breakout would mean a new wave of pump is about to begin; a pullback could trigger a deeper technical correction.
