Gate on-chain observation ( on November 3: Whale long positions unrealized losses exceed 20 million USD; Abraxas Capital short order increases to 760 million USD.

In the context of continuous pullbacks in the Crypto Assets market, on-chain data reveals significant differentiation among the Whale camp. Abraxas Capital's short positions have continued to expand to 760 million USD, including 280 million USD in BTC shorts, 267 million USD in ETH shorts, and 103 million USD in HYPE shorts, with the hedge fund's total unrealized gains reaching 50.2 million USD. Meanwhile, the long positions camp has suffered heavy losses, with the “100% win rate Whale” holding total unrealized losses exceeding 20 million USD in BTC, ETH, SOL, and HYPE long orders, having pulled back all profits from its last 12 trades. The market's long-short strength comparison has significantly changed, and high-leverage longs are facing severe tests.

1. BTC Market Dynamics and Analysis

Short positions strength continues to strengthen, long positions camp losses expand

The Bitcoin market shows a clear pattern dominated by short positions, with several well-known long order traders facing serious losses:

· Abraxas Capital's short positions reach new highs: The hedge fund has continuously increased its BTC and ETH short positions with two addresses, raising the total nominal value of its positions from 480 million USD to 760 million USD. Currently, its BTC short position has increased from 124 million USD to 280 million USD, an increase of over 125%, indicating a strong bearish outlook for the market. The total unrealized gains from the two addresses have reached 50.2 million USD, and among the current 22 short positions, only the main address's ETH short position is still showing unrealized losses.

· “100% Winning Rate Whale” Faces Severe Test: This whale has reached its asset trough since October 14, currently holding over $20 million in unrealized losses on BTC, ETH, SOL, and HYPE long positions. Based on the current unrealized losses, he has pulled back all profits from the past 12 trades, with a total unrealized loss of $8.26 million, marking the largest drawdown since its active trading.

· “Calm Opening King” short positions profit-taking: This trader has again rolled over BTC and SOL short positions, gradually closing part of the BTC and SOL short positions over the past 20 hours. The nominal value of BTC short positions has decreased by about 7.63 million USD, and the nominal value of SOL short positions has decreased by about 5.90 million USD. Currently, the unrealized gains on BTC short positions are 360,000 USD, with a return rate of about 74%. The total nominal value of positions has decreased from 60.68 million USD to 17.79 million USD, with realized profits of about 1.81 million USD.

Long-term holders continue to reduce positions

· Ancient whales large-scale selling: Since October 21, Owen Gunden has deposited 3265 BTC into CEX (worth 364.5 million USD). The continued reduction of such long-term holders poses significant pressure on the market.

· “1011 Insider Whale” intensively offloading: Since October 1, this whale has deposited approximately 13,000 BTC (worth $1.48 billion) into CEX and Hyperliquid. In the past 3 weeks, this whale has deposited a total of 7003 BTC into CEX, worth $781.81 million.

· Profit-taking continues: a Whale address deposited 351 BTC (approximately $38.73 million) into CEX, realizing gains of $27.97 million. The Whale initially withdrew 361 BTC from CEX 3-4 years ago, when it was worth about $11.63 million, and now has redeposited it all, worth approximately $39.60 million.

2. ETH Market Dynamics and Analysis

Whales suffer heavy losses, institutional operations show divergence

The Ethereum market presents a complex long-short landscape, with investors of different sizes facing drastically different situations:

· “Maji” faces a liquidation crisis: The address holds 835.2 ETH long order with an unrealized loss of $150,000, and the liquidation price is $3,668.4. The account has only $93,000 left. Over the past 30 days, the account has incurred a loss of $28.66 million, significantly retreating from its peak, demonstrating the enormous risks of high-leverage trading in a downtrend.

· Whale profit taking: A certain whale deposited $11.17 million worth of 3000 coins of ETH into a CEX. The address withdrew 8009 coins of ETH 249 days ago, valued at $18.25 million, and currently still holds 2002 coins of ETH. Its total position is expected to have a profit of approximately $14.76 million, demonstrating good timing ability.

· High-risk short positions: The “gambler” address 0x9e4f is making a highly risky bet, establishing a short order with 25x leverage, shorting 7,368.8 coins of ETH (approximately 28.2 million USD), with an opening price of 3,900.81 USD and a liquidation price of 3,953.3 USD. Such high-leverage shorts face significant risks in a volatile market.

Institutional capital flow shows divergence

· Large ETH transfer draws attention: Address 0xe5c withdrew 20,021 ETH (78.15 million USD) from CEX, possibly to repay Aave loans. It previously collateralized 200 million USDC to borrow 22,020.09 WETH on 10.20, when the ETH price was 4032.24 USD; the current withdrawal price is 3903.53 USD, indicating an adjustment in its borrowing strategy.

· Institutional funds continue to flow in: Despite the weak market performance, institutional-level funds are still looking for opportunities. Multiple signs indicate that institutional investors are strategically positioning themselves during price pullbacks, especially in accumulating core assets like ETH.

3. Other Altcoin Market Dynamics and Analysis

Public Chain Ecosystem: Intense Long and Short Battle of SOL

Solana has become a battleground for intense competition between long positions and short positions, with clear differentiation in Whale operations:

· Large long positions bravely enter the market: Whale address 0x8d0E deposited 10 million USDC into Hyperliquid and opened a long order for 140,366 SOL (approximately 26.14 million USD), with a leverage of 20 times and a liquidation price of 75.13 USD. The entry of such large long positions indicates some investors' confidence in the future price of SOL.

· “100% Win Rate Whale” SOL Position Under Pressure: This Whale's SOL long order has become the worst-performing part of its investment portfolio, facing immense pressure amid the ongoing market decline. The high concentration of its long positions may exacerbate the extent of losses.

Meme coins and specific projects: Differentiated operational strategies

· “100% win rate Whale” increases position in HYPE against the trend: This Whale continues to slightly increase its long order in HYPE, with an increase of 294.34 coins. As of the time of writing, its long positions are valued at approximately $397 million. It has opened a 10x long order in HYPE, with the latest position of 70775.48 coins (about $2.95 million), and the total value of four long positions is $376 million, with unrealized losses of $6.83 million.

· “Maji” reduced its holdings in Meme coins: In contrast, “Maji” reduced its long positions in HYPE and PUMP. As of the time of writing, the value of its long position holdings is approximately $10.01 million. Its position adjustments in the market downturn indicate a decrease in risk appetite.

· ASTER attracts funding attention: a Whale withdrew 5.8 million ASTER from the CEX, valued at 5.58 million USD, and deposited it into Aster. Over the past 6 days, the Whale has withdrawn 6.8 million ASTER from the CEX, valued at 6.66 million USD, showing continued optimism towards specific small-cap projects.

Institutional-level token unlock attracts attention

· Large Transfer of VIRTUAL: An investor/institution address of VIRTUAL transferred 7,958,000 VIRTUAL (worth 13.45 million USD) to the institutional service platform Teneo, and it is expected to be transferred to CEX in batches like the previous times. This investor/institution obtained 26,420,000 VIRTUAL through investments in December 2023, and currently all these VIRTUAL have been transferred out at a price of 1.54 USD, worth 40.83 million USD.

4. Market Overview and Trend Analysis

Overview: Short positions dominate, market sentiment turns cautious

The current market is in a typical short positions dominated phase, characterized by:

· Hedge funds continue to increase short positions: Abraxas Capital has been steadily increasing its short positions during the market price decline, with a total scale reaching 760 million USD, and achieving considerable unrealized gains, demonstrating the effectiveness of its strategy.

· Famous long positions trader suffers a setback: from “100% win rate Whale” to “Buddy”, multiple well-known long positions traders are facing serious losses, and the risks of high leverage long positions are laid bare.

· Long-term holders behave consistently: From Owen Gunden to “1011 insider Whale”, the continuous reduction in holdings by long-term holders shows consistency, which exerts ongoing pressure on the market.

Trend Analysis: Key Support Levels Face Severe Tests

Based on on-chain data and market structure, the market trend for the next 1-3 trading days is projected as follows:

· Key position for Bitcoin: BTC needs to hold the support level of $105,000. If it fails to do so, it may drop to the range of $100,000 to $102,000. The continuous reduction of holdings by long-term holders puts pressure on the market rebound.

· Ethereum liquidation risk: There is a significant amount of long positions liquidation risk for ETH below $3700, especially as the liquidation price for Whale positions like “Maji” is at $3668, which could trigger a chain reaction if reached.

· The volatility of altcoins has intensified: mainstream altcoins like SOL may face greater fluctuations, and it is essential to pay close attention to the large-scale liquidation of “100% win rate Whale” long orders. There are clear signs of capital outflow in the Meme coin sector, making operations more challenging.

· Risk Warning: Closely monitor the profit-taking behavior of Abraxas Capital's $760 million short positions; any large-scale liquidations could trigger a short squeeze. At the same time, the chain liquidation risk of high-leverage long positions still needs to be heeded.

V. Conclusion

As Abraxas Capital's short positions increased to $760 million and realized $50.2 million in unrealized gains, when the long positions of the “100% win rate Whale” faced unrealized losses exceeding $20 million, and when “Maji” lost $28.66 million within 30 days, the market showcased the stark results of different strategies in a trending market using the most authentic language of capital. This battle between long and short positions is no longer a competition for short-term prices, but a comprehensive contest of investment philosophy, risk management, and psychological endurance.

The cyclical nature of the market always repeats the same story — leverage amplifies gains when prices rise and accelerates destruction when they fall. In this increasingly volatile market environment, ordinary investors should perhaps focus more on position management and risk control, rather than blindly following any party's trading strategy. After all, in this cruel capital game, those who can survive long-term are never the adventurers with the highest short-term gains, but rather the conservators with the strictest risk control.