The US Dollar Index 96.3 is approaching a critical inflection point. History shows that after the dollar fell below 96 in 2017, BTC surged tenfold, and in 2020, it increased by 540%. If the fractal repeats, it could reach $150,000. However, current interest rates and real yields are relatively high, increasing the risk of yen arbitrage unwind. The BTC/XAU ratio has fallen back below the 200-week moving average, and historically, every four years after touching this level, a new cycle begins.