Why did Bitcoin fall today? ETF outflows of $1.15 billion, five major signals confirm the life or death of the bull run

Bitcoin prices continue to decline, currently reporting at $101,352, with the intraday low reaching $98,966. Why did Bitcoin fall today? On a macro level, a strengthening dollar and the Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance are exerting pressure. Ahead of the release of ADP employment and non-farm payroll data this week, traders have adopted defensive strategies. According to Farside Investors data, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF funds experienced outflows of $1.15 billion in October.

Why did Bitcoin fall today? A double whammy of a stronger dollar and hawkish Fed

(Source: CoinMarketCap)

A stronger dollar typically puts pressure on Bitcoin because cryptocurrencies are inherently a non-yielding alternative asset. When the dollar appreciates, investors tend to shift toward dollar-denominated tools that offer positive real yields, reducing demand for Bitcoin and other digital assets. After a sluggish first half of the year, the dollar index rebounded in November to the 98-100 range, while the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield approached 4.1%. Real interest rates remain in a tightening state.

Furthermore, given the hawkish stance in the latest Federal Reserve policy statement, traders have taken a defensive approach ahead of this week’s U.S. economic data releases. Several highly anticipated reports are scheduled this week. The ISM manufacturing data will be released on November 3, followed by the services PMI and ADP employment data on November 5. The week concludes on November 7 with the release of the non-farm payroll report, which is one of the most closely watched labor market indicators. The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index data will also be published on November 7.

This series of dense economic data releases has led investors to reduce risk exposure ahead of the announcements. If the data underperform expectations, it could reinforce the Fed’s hawkish stance and delay rate cuts, which would be significantly negative for risk assets like Bitcoin. Conversely, soft data might reignite expectations for rate cuts and push Bitcoin higher. The current decline reflects this cautious attitude amid uncertainty.

A strong dollar and high real yields mark the end of capital flow-driven breakthroughs. When capital flows are relatively stable, the dollar often determines whether the rebound continues or diminishes. Macro liquidity indicators (the dollar index and 10-year Treasury yields) are among the five major bull market verification signals: a weakening dollar (below 97) and declining yields tend to open liquidity channels, which historically support bullish momentum. Any indicator strengthening tightens liquidity and pressures Bitcoin’s beta coefficient.

BlackRock’s $714 million redemption on the 4th triggers chain reactions

Adding to the pressure, according to Farside Investors data, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF funds saw outflows totaling $1.15 billion in October (from October 29 to 31). This further intensified selling pressure at the market open in November. These redemptions eliminated the structural support layer that absorbed sell-offs from crypto-native participants during earlier market declines, as ETF fund flows had served as a demand stabilizer.

Bitcoin’s price broke below $106,400, with spot ETF fund flows turning negative for four consecutive trading days. This shift was driven by BlackRock’s IBIT redeeming $714.8 million over the past four days, significantly reducing daily demand at a critical turning point in the cycle. According to Farside Investors, outflows of $88.1 million, $290.9 million, $149.3 million, and $186.5 million occurred simultaneously with this collapse.

These outflows forced authorized participants to sell shares, converting them into Bitcoin and then selling into the market. As a result, the net capital flow direction reversed. When ETF subscriptions slow and redemptions increase, the daily buying that previously helped absorb volatility shifts into a supply source. Since mid-October, as Bitcoin struggled to stay above $106,400, digital asset funds experienced continuous net outflows.

Mechanical effects are significant because ETF fund flows translate into spot buying and selling, and the timing overlaps with key breakout levels used by many traders to distinguish late-cycle pullbacks from trend recoveries. ETF fund flows are among the five major bull market verification signals: sustained multi-day subscriptions by major issuers like BlackRock’s IBIT or Fidelity’s FBTC indicate demand revival. Conversely, continued redemptions or flat flows confirm that buying has shifted to selling.

Derivatives clearing has also exacerbated the decline. CoinGlass data shows that nearly $1.15 billion in long positions were liquidated in the past 24 hours, with about $330 million concentrated in Ethereum futures after ETH prices fell below $3,900. When leveraged traders’ positions are automatically closed due to adverse price movements, forced liquidations occur, causing forced selling and accelerating the downtrend.

Five major signals to verify if the Bitcoin bull run continues

Crypto Twitter is flooded with claims that “everyone is buying Bitcoin,” from Michael Saylor and BlackRock to entire countries and banks. However, despite the widespread accumulation narrative, Bitcoin prices have fallen sharply and broken key levels as ETF fund inflows turn negative. The conflict between positive news and falling prices highlights a key point: in markets driven by liquidity and marginal flows, who is actually buying and when they buy matters far more than who claims to be buying.

Five clear signals to verify a Bitcoin bull market

1. ETF Fund Flows: Continuous multi-day subscriptions by major issuers like BlackRock’s IBIT or Fidelity’s FBTC indicate demand revival. Conversely, ongoing redemptions or flat flows confirm that buying has shifted to selling. Current status: four consecutive days of net outflows totaling $714 million, a negative signal.

2. Overall Capital Inflows: Widespread capital inflows into digital asset funds, especially with Bitcoin leading, suggest institutional investors are re-entering risk assets. Persistent outflows or concentration in defensive altcoins indicate capital withdrawal. Current status: October net outflows of $1.15 billion, a negative signal.

(Source: Bitcoin Magazine Pro)

3. Leverage Conditions: A basis (annualized yield) rising (above approximately 7-8%) and stable positive funding indicate a market favoring one-sided risk, typical of an active bull phase. Flat or negative basis suggests deleveraging. In the second half of this year, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange’s three-month futures premium has fallen back to around 4-5% annualized, and perpetual swap financing has become weak or even negative. Current status: weak basis, near-zero or negative funding, a negative signal.

4. Macro Liquidity: A weakening dollar (DXY below 97) and declining yields open liquidity channels. Any strengthening indicator tightens liquidity. Current status: dollar rebounded to 98-100, 10-year yield at 4.1%, a negative signal.

(Source: Luxor)

5. Mining Supply Pressure: Rising hash power prices with stable or decreasing miner selling volume indicate the market is comfortably digesting new supply. A sharp drop in hash power prices or a surge in miners transferring hash power to exchanges typically signals stress points. Current status: post-halving hash power prices near cycle lows, increasing miner monetization pressure, a negative signal.

Over the past four trading days, spot ETF demand has shifted from buying to continuous net selling, aligning perfectly with Bitcoin losing the $106,400 turning point. Due to weak CME basis and tight funding, the decline in marginal prices is driven not by healthy adjustments but by risk-off factors.

The $106,400 turning point and three possible scenarios

Until daily inflows recover and the $106,400 level is re-established, this remains a phase of redistribution and digestion within a larger cycle. The short-term trend depends on whether spot markets resume accumulation and whether the basis widens. If the largest U.S. spot ETFs (especially IBIT and FBTC) continue to experience net outflows, and CME basis remains around 5% annualized or below, with flows flat or negative, the market will remain in distribution.

In this scenario, if $106,400 cannot be reclaimed, focus shifts to $100,000. If macroeconomic tightening persists, subsequent declines could reach mid-high $90,000s. This is the most pessimistic outlook, implying the current bull cycle may have ended, entering a deep bear market correction.

A more neutral outcome, with capital flows fluctuating but remaining modest, basis stable between 5-7%, and the dollar oscillating around 97-100, suggests Bitcoin will digest between $100,000 and $106,000 while liquidity rebuilds. In this case, the market is in a consolidation phase, waiting for new catalysts to break the stalemate.

Optimistic scenarios require sustained daily net inflows of $300 million to $800 million, basis widening over 8-10%, and a weakening dollar. If capital flows continue, this combination could allow a retest of $110,000 to $115,000 and reignite debates about the cycle top.

Finally, unless the historic Bitcoin cycle pattern has been disrupted by corporate bonds and ETF inflows, timing has already made its decision. If Bitcoin reaches a new all-time high by the end of this year or in 2026, it would mark the latest cycle peak ever. Historically, Bitcoin’s cycle peaks tend to occur 12-18 months after halving, with the 2024 halving implying a peak around April to October 2025. Delays into late 2025 or 2026 would suggest the cycle’s timing has been altered by institutional participation and ETF inflows.

In this context, marginal sellers dominate the market trend. Compared to daily trading volume, sovereign-level purchases are sporadic and small-scale, and corporate treasury operations vary. Banks generally prefer to assist clients with transactions rather than take on asset-liability risks daily.