January CEX spot trading volume plummets, putting pressure on the crypto market structure; total market capitalization may further shrink.

January 28 News, although market discussions still focus on the price fluctuations of Bitcoin and a few altcoins, the overall cryptocurrency market structure is showing deeper risk signals. Multiple data points indicate that spot trading volume in January has significantly declined, and liquidity continues to contract, making the entire market increasingly fragile.

According to Newhedge’s statistics, the total spot trading volume of cryptocurrencies on centralized platforms in January was approximately $1.118 trillion. If there is no obvious rebound by the end of the month, this level will become the lowest since July last year, reflecting a clear cooling of investor trading appetite. Even though many altcoins have fallen 70% to 90% from their historical highs, funds are still choosing to wait and see rather than bottom out.

Data from CryptoQuant further confirms this trend. The small on-chain transaction indicator, which measures retail activity, has been declining since August last year. Analyst Caueconomy pointed out that the risk of a U.S. government shutdown and the uncertainty surrounding yen arbitrage trading are prompting funds to shift to defensive positions, with a noticeable decrease in new trading and investments.

Changes in capital flow are especially evident at the stablecoin level. In January, the total market cap of ERC-20 stablecoins declined, and stablecoin reserves on exchanges also decreased accordingly. This suggests that funds are not just rotating within the market but are gradually exiting the crypto ecosystem. Previous studies warned that, in the absence of new liquidity, Bitcoin prices face the risk of further decline.

On a structural level, the total market cap of cryptocurrencies has fallen below $30 trillion, with around $2.86 trillion seen as a critical support zone. TradingView’s long-term trend shows that the current market cap is approaching an important trend line that has persisted since 2024. If this support is broken, the market could face a deep correction similar to that of 2022.

In the short term, macro factors may still introduce variables. The US dollar index has recently weakened, and the market is betting on future rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which historically tends to benefit risk assets. However, to reverse the current situation, the market still needs to see retail inflows and stablecoin funds reaccumulating. The coming days will be a key window to test whether the crypto market can hold its structural bottom.