Prediction Market

Gate News message, April 25 — The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) filed an amicus brief today with the Massachusetts Supreme Judicial Court, asserting its exclusive federal jurisdiction over commodity derivatives markets, including prediction markets. The case, Commonwealth of Massa

Pyth feeds will settle Kalshi contracts on assets like gold, oil, and soybeans with continuous pricing beyond exchange hours. The system aggregates data from 125+ institutions, ensuring real-time coverage across commodities trading without interruptions. Kalshi expands amid regulatory

Gate News message, April 24 — The U.S. Department of Justice has closed its criminal investigation into Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, removing a major obstacle to Senate confirmation of incoming Fed chair Kevin Warsh. U.S. Attorney for the District of Columbia Jeanine Pirro announced the deci

Gate News message, April 24 — The U.S. Department of Justice has closed its criminal investigation into Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, removing a key obstacle to Senate confirmation of incoming Fed chair Kevin Warsh. U.S. Attorney for the District of Columbia Jeanine Pirro announced the closur

Gate News message, April 24 — Polymarket introduced a new Steam account login option, expanding access methods for users. Saturn increased its STRC holdings, with total positions valued at $33 million. A Balancer hacker converted 7,000 ETH into 204.7 BTC, equivalent to approximately $15.88 million,

Brazil has enacted a sweeping ban on prediction markets and betting platforms, according to local media and government filings. The two leading prediction markets, Polymarket and Kalshi, were inaccessible to researchers in the country based on direct testing. ## Regulatory Basis and Scope The Banc

The U.S. Department of Justice in the Southern District of New York has indicted U.S. Army Special Forces officer chief Gannon Ken Van Dyke, alleging that he used classified information to bet on Polymarket on the outcome of Maduro’s arrest, earning approximately $409,881 (13 transactions, 2025-12-27 to 2026-1-26). The charges include illegal use of confidential information, theft of nonpublic information, commodity transaction fraud, wire fraud, and illegal money transactions, among others. It is described as the first federal prosecution centered on insider trading and arbitrage with a prediction market, which may affect future regulatory directions.

According to an official press release issued by Wisconsin Attorney General Josh Kaul on April 23, Wisconsin has sued Kalshi in Dane County, alleging that the platform’s prediction market business, which operates in the form of “event contracts,” falls within the legal definition of gambling under Wisconsin law and constitutes an unlicensed gambling activity.

Gate News message, April 24 — The U.S. Department of Justice has arrested active-duty Army soldier Gannon Ken Van Dyke, 38, on charges of using confidential information to place bets on Polymarket, a prediction market, regarding former Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro's capture. Van Dyke particip

Gate News message, April 24 — According to Odaily Seer, an account that has suffered losses exceeding $4 million placed a $100,000 bet on Denver Nuggets to beat Minnesota Timberwolves with a 1.5-point spread at an average entry price of 46 cents on Polymarket, approximately 10 minutes before

The U.S. Department of Justice arrested a U.S. military servicemember on April 23, accusing him of using classified information to place bets on the prediction market Polymarket that Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro would be arrested, resulting in profits of more than $400k from an initial wager of more than $33k. On Thursday, U.S. President Trump said he will investigate whether federal employees have been placing bets on sports betting platforms, criticizing, “the world has become a casino.”

Pyth feeds will settle Kalshi contracts on assets like gold, oil, and soybeans with continuous pricing beyond exchange hours. The system aggregates data from 125+ institutions, ensuring real-time coverage across commodities trading without interruptions. Kalshi expands amid regulatory

Gate News message, April 23 — According to Polymarket, the prediction market platform, there is a 73% probability that MegaETH token will exceed a fully diluted valuation (FDV) of $1 billion on its launch day, with a 32% probability of exceeding $2 billion. MegaETH is scheduled for token generation

Gate News message, April 23 — Prediction markets platform Kalshi has fined and suspended three congressional candidates for wagering on the outcomes of their own campaigns, stepping up enforcement of insider trading controls. Mark Moran, running for a Senate seat in Virginia, received a $6,229

Gate News message, April 23 — Polymarket, a crypto prediction market platform, has drawn insider trading allegations following a surge in trading volume around predictions related to U.S. President Donald Trump's policies and statements. Between April 5 and 8, markets predicting outcomes related to

Gate News message, April 23 — AI prediction market protocol Delphi has officially launched on Gensyn, an AI computing protocol, enabling humans and AI agents to conduct prediction trades on the same platform. Settlement is completed on-chain through verified AI oracles. Gensyn previously launched D

Gate News message, April 23 — Microsoft evaluated the possibility of acquiring AI coding tool company Cursor but ultimately did not proceed with the transaction. SpaceX subsequently secured an agreement to acquire Cursor at a $60 billion valuation, with a $10 billion breakup fee if the acquisition i

Polymarket traders won more than $35,000 after temperature sensor spikes near Paris-Charles de Gaulle airport resolved long-shot weather bets in their favor, prompting France's national weather agency to file a police complaint. The incidents occurred on April 6 and April 15, when a Météo France sen