Prediction Market

In brief Polymarket is creating surveillance systems for sports-focused prediction markets with Palantir, the firm known for its work with the U.S. military. The initiative comes as lawmakers have called out suspicious trading activity on markets related to U.S. military efforts, while

Decentralized prediction market Polymarket is collaborating with data company Palantir and TWG AI to develop AI monitoring tools for sports betting to detect abnormal trading and prevent insider trading. This system will be used for Polymarket's new US compliance platform, demonstrating its efforts to re-enter the US market and respond to regulatory measures from competitor Kalshi.

CFTC Chairman Michael Selig stated that blockchain-based prediction markets can enhance price discovery and information transparency, becoming a powerful "truth machine." Using the 2024 U.S. presidential election as an example, he emphasized that market pricing accurately reflects election outcomes. The CFTC will introduce new regulations to guide compliant trading of event contracts.

Polymarket is hiring Palantir Technologies and TWG AI to strengthen oversight of its sports contract trading, aiming to identify and prevent suspicious activities. This move comes amid increased regulation of prediction markets, with a focus on screening participants and cross-referencing banned lists.

On March 10th, a certain prediction platform added a market forecast that the price of crude oil could break the all-time high of $147.27 before the end of the month, with a current probability of 11%. This price was reached in 2008, driven by surging demand in emerging markets and supply tightening.

Gate News Report, March 10 — According to the latest data from Polymarket, there are significant differences in market bets on the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates at different times this year. Among them, the probability of a rate cut in September is the highest at 80%; July has a 59% chance; June has a 52% chance; April has a 16% chance; and March has only a 1% chance. Currently, the trading volume of this prediction market has exceeded $1.6 million.

Customers of Clear, a brand of the XP Group, who hold an international investment account, will be able to participate in regulated prediction markets. XP is the first company to bring regulated prediction markets outside the U.S., with a focus on financial and economic events. Kalshi Partners

Gate News Report, March 10 — According to the latest data from Polymarket, market bets on the BTC price trend in March are diverging: a 57% chance of dropping to $65,000, and a 57% chance of rising to $75,000; a 28% chance of dropping to $60,000, and a 28% chance of rising to $80,000. As of now, the trading volume in this prediction market has exceeded $28.27 million.

Gate News Report, March 10, Iran's Army announced that in retaliation for attacks on Iranian oil facilities, its drones attacked a refinery and fuel storage facilities in Haifa, Israel. Additionally, Iran has launched a new round of missile strikes against Israel. According to Polymarket data, the probability of a ceasefire between the US and Iran by the end of this month is now reported at 34%.

Cboe Global Markets will launch a new prediction market contract linked to the S&P 500 Index, allowing traders to earn a portion of the gains based on prediction accuracy. This move aims to attract more retail investors. It marks an increased focus on event-driven financial products and is expected to boost retail trading activity, becoming an emerging investment trend.

On March 10th, a new account placed a $5,000 bet on Predict.fun FDV on Polymarket, including $2,100 on "FDV > 300M." At this time, Predict.fun announced the acquisition of Probable and launched a joint staking program to attract liquidity.

According to Gate News, on March 10th, a new address purchased a prediction about other countries possibly taking action against Iran in March on the Polymarket prediction market for $7,600. Meanwhile, U.S. Senator Lindsey Graham criticized Saudi Arabia's passive attitude toward the Iran war, warning of potential political consequences, reflecting that U.S. hawks want Middle Eastern allies to take on more responsibility.

On March 10th, on the prediction market Polymarket, two high-probability addresses placed a $13,400 bet on a ceasefire between the US and Iran in June. Iran hopes to end the war rather than a temporary ceasefire. Trump claimed the conflict would end quickly and issued threats against Iran.

Gate News Report, March 10 — Lookonchain monitoring shows that a user created a new wallet "minder42" 20 hours ago, betting that the U.S. military will enter Iran before March 14. Despite the odds continuously decreasing, the user keeps increasing their bet, with a total investment of $32,900 so far.

According to PolyBeats monitoring, on March 10th, an account on Polymarket invested $13,000 in options related to the end of the US-Iran conflict. Trump hinted that military actions were nearing completion, and the market was concerned about high oil prices affecting the economy, prompting a display of willingness to cease fire.

The 2026 World Baseball Classic has begun, with the United States leading at a 47% chance of winning, followed by the Dominican Republic at 24% and Japan at 22%. Experts predict that among the top eight teams, the United States and the Dominican Republic have a chance to reach the top three. Taiwan's first victory over South Korea demonstrates improved strength, but they face challenges in advancing further.

On the Polymarket platform, an account placed a $7,500 bet to buy "Nothing Happens: MicroStrategy," betting that MicroStrategy will not trigger a specific condition to settle as "No." MicroStrategy recently increased its Bitcoin holdings, now holding 738,731 coins, just 11,269 coins short of 750,000, with the related market probability reaching as high as 98%.

Gate News Report, March 9 — According to Dune data, last week's trading activity in the prediction market continued to rise, with the number of trades reaching 47.26 million, setting a new record. Among them, Polymarket led with 26.26 million trades, followed by Kalshi with 20.04 million trades.

Gate News Report, March 9 — According to data from the Polymarket website, the probability of "a certain CEX conducting an IPO this year" surged to 93% tonight, then fell back to 69%, with a trading volume of over $260,000. Previously, it was reported that Nasdaq is collaborating with the exchange's parent company Payward to promote tokenized stock trading.

Gate News Announcement: On March 9, the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE, the world's largest options exchange) launched an innovative prediction market framework that offers investment options beyond simple binary outcomes, providing investors with more diversified ways to participate in the market.