Litecoin (LTC) 240% Potential Rally Hinges on Crypto Reserve Inclusion and ETF Approval

NOIDA (CoinChapter.com)—Litecoin (LTC) price has comparatively held firm amid volatile market conditions, trading between $100 and $134 since Dec. 2024. During the recent market flash crash, the token plunged over 27% from March 3’s high of $130 to reach $94 on March 4. However, LTC prices are recovering, driven by speculation surrounding its potential inclusion in Trump’s Crypto Strategic Reserve and the growing likelihood of an LTC ETF approval.

LTC price currently trades around $104, with the 100-day EMA (blue) at $110 acting as dynamic resistance. A rejection here could reinforce the downtrend, pushing LTC toward its next major support near $95, where the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level aligns with strong historical demand.

The token has been moving inside an ascending channel since Dec. 2024. and is currently testing the pattern’s support trendline. A rebound from here would bring Litecoin price close to the resistance near $114.

LTCUSD daily price chart with RSI. Source: Tradingview

A reclaim of $114, the 0.618 Fib retracement level, would invalidate the short-term bearish outlook and set up a move toward $126, the 0.786 retracement level. Bulls need to push LTC above this zone to confirm renewed upside momentum.

The RSI sits at 39.68, signaling that LTC is approaching oversold conditions but lacks bullish momentum. A breakdown below $95 could open the door for a retest of $83, aligning with the 0.236 Fibonacci level.

While Bitcoin and Ethereum have dominated mainstream narratives, Litecoin has quietly gained momentum, fueled by increasing mentions in political and financial circles. Market excitement has been amplified by posts mentioning excellent LTC ETF approval chances, or highlighting that rumors of a Litecoin ETF are pushing LTC prices higher.

Litecoin’s Case for Trump’s Crypto Reserve

With Trump officially confirming a Crypto Strategic Reserve that includes XRP, Solana (SOL), and Cardano (ADA), speculation has swirled over whether additional assets—such as Litecoin— could be added. The token has historical and structural advantages that make it a logical contender.

Created by U.S.-based developer Charlie Lee, Litecoin carries the type of “America First” narrative Trump has repeatedly championed. It is also fully decentralized, a characteristic that aligns with Bitcoin, which has historically been viewed as a digital alternative to gold.

LTC traders remained optimistic of Litecoin’s potential reserve inclusion.

Another argument for Litecoin’s inclusion is its longevity and reliability. Launched in 2011, it has survived multiple market cycles and remains a widely recognized payment cryptocurrency. Unlike Solana, which has faced network reliability issues, Litecoin has been comparatively more consistent in delivering fast and low-cost transactions.

Litecoin lobbyists could use this to argue that the token is a valuable addition to the reserve, offering diversification beyond the smart contract-heavy assets that Trump’s team has so far endorsed.

However, several doubts remain. Despite its track record, Litecoin’s market cap and institutional adoption lag behind Bitcoin and Ethereum. The token also lacks a clear-cut geopolitical advantage compared to XRP, which has ties to cross-border payment systems, or Solana, which has positioned itself as a high-speed blockchain for enterprise adoption. Additionally, the reserve’s broader purpose remains ambiguous. Is it meant to store value, influence financial markets, or hedge against inflation? If Trump’s administration prioritizes influence over utility, Litecoin’s chances of inclusion could be slim.

If added to the reserve, Litecoin’s price could see a sharp rally, much like Solana and Cardano did after Trump’s March 2 announcement. However, if it remains absent from the March 7 White House Crypto Summit discussion, market confidence in LTC’s role in U.S. policy could fade.

Litecoin ETF Speculation Heats Up As Bullish Setup Has Traders Salivating

Alongside speculation over its place in Trump’s reserve, Litecoin has been gaining traction as a likely candidate for ETF approval. Analysts at Bloomberg had pegged the approval probability at 90% by year-end, citing Litecoin’s proof-of-work structure, historical market performance, and the SEC’s classification of it as a commodity.

Recent filings from Canary Capital, including S-1 and 19b-4 forms, suggest the SEC is actively reviewing a Litecoin ETF. The deadline for a final decision is Oct. 2025, but market analysts believe Trump’s influence could accelerate the process. If the March 7 Crypto Summit sees Trump explicitly naming Litecoin as part of the reserve, it could pressure the SEC to move faster on ETF approval to align with national policy.

Polymarket stated that Litecoin remained a strong contender for an ETF approval.

However, the SEC has historically taken a cautious stance on crypto ETFs beyond Bitcoin. Regulatory concerns over market manipulation and liquidity risks have stalled similar ETF applications. If Trump endorses Litecoin, the SEC may face a political and legal dilemma—either approve the ETF to avoid contradicting federal policy or maintain its current trajectory of slow, measured evaluations.

The March 7 summit could determine whether LTC gains mainstream institutional legitimacy or remains an outsider in the evolving U.S. crypto landscape.

Meanwhile, traders will likely be watching LTC price action closely, as the token is close to breaking out of a bullish technical setup.

Litecoin price has formed an ascending triangle, a bullish continuation pattern marked by rising lows and a horizontal resistance level. The setup indicates growing buying pressure, as each pullback forms a higher base while resistance remains consistent. A confirmed breakout could attract more buyers to the market.

The LTC USD pair formed a bullish technical setup.

The ascending trendline, which has been building support since mid-2022, suggests increasing accumulation. Traders calculate the price target by taking the height of the formation and adding it to the breakout level As such, LTC price could rally over 240% to reach the theoretical price target near $358.

However, if the breakout fails, it could trigger a reversal, sending LTC toward lower support zones.

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