The crossroads of the 2025 public chain track: ETH Square Pectra meets cold and Solana InfiniSVM's ambition to break the game

At around 8 a.m. on March 7th, White House AI and Cryptocurrency Chief David Sacks posted on social media that President Trump had just signed an executive order to establish a strategic BTC reserve. However, after this huge Favourable Information news came out, the market seemed unimpressed, directly falling by more than 5.6%. This has seemingly become a daily routine recently, with a drop every time there is Favourable Information. And both eth and SOL, which may serve as reserves, were not spared. However, there seems to be a more important topic for ETH and SOL, which is the upcoming major upgrade: Ethereum’s Pectra vs. Solana’s SIMD-0228.

Upgrade Fast Overview

The Pectra upgrade of Ethereum and the SIMD-0228 proposal of Solana are two important events in the blockchain field in 2025, representing different paths of technological optimization and economic model adjustment.

Ethereum Pectra upgrade

The Pectra upgrade plan is scheduled to be implemented in March or April 2025, combining the Prague and Electra phases, aiming to enhance network performance and user experience. Research shows that it includes account abstraction (allowing payment of gas fees in tokens such as USDC, DAI), staking optimization (increasing the maximum validator stake from 32 ETH to 2048 ETH), and smart contract optimization, etc. Current data shows that about 33.8 million ETH is staked, accounting for around 28% of the total, with a reward rate of approximately 3.81%(Datawallet). This may attract more users, but the centralization risk (such as large holders controlling more nodes) is worth noting.

The Ethereum Pectra upgrade was originally planned to be completed in one go, but the development team found that implementing all functions at the same time was too complex and risky. Therefore, they decided to divide the upgrade into two phases.

• Phase One (Early 2025): Focus on direct improvements related to account abstraction and validators. These improvements will make Ethereum more user-friendly while increasing staking rewards.
• Phase 2 (expected in 2026): Introducing more technological optimizations, such as the EVM object format designed to enhance smart contract efficiency (EOF), and the PeerDAS technology to further enhance Layer 2 scalability.
• Pertra: The upgrade mainly includes the following aspects:

1. Account Abstraction

2. Smart Contract Efficiency

3. Optimization for Validators

4. Optimize data management through Verkle trees

5. Layer 2 solution and PeerDAS

Solana SIMD-0228 Proposal

Proposal 0228 is to adjust the inflation rate dynamically based on the staking rate, aiming to maintain a 50% staking rate and reduce SOL’s issuance rate in the long term. Solana’s current inflation model is a curve that gradually decreases over time. At the launch of the mainnet (March 2019), an 8% inflation rate was set and has been decreasing over time, with the current inflation rate at around 4.8% and a long-term target inflation rate of 1.5%-2%. If this proposal is passed, short-term staking rewards will decrease (between 1%-4.5% based on the staking rate), and the long-term inflation rate will approach 1.5%. Currently, the staking rate is 70%, so if 228 is passed, short-term staking SOL rewards will decrease, issuance will decrease in the long term, and staking rewards will adjust in real-time based on the staking rate. It is worth mentioning that the issued SOL is considered ordinary income and is taxable, at least in the United States. Therefore, there will be selling pressure proportional to the issuance amount.

Solana’s SIMD-0228 proposal will begin voting on March 6, 2025, with the aim of reducing the SOL inflation rate from 4.5% to 0.87% through a dynamic emission mechanism. It is based on adjusting emissions based on the staking participation rate: reducing issuance when the staking rate is above 50% and increasing it when it is below 50%. Currently, Solana’s staking rate is about 63.43%, with approximately 322.3 million SOL staked, and the inflation rate is about 4.5%. This may stabilize the value of SOL, but the dynamic mechanism may affect market confidence.

Pectra is more comprehensive, covering the technical aspects; SIMD-0228 focuses on economic adjustment. Pectra may improve efficiency, but there is considerable controversy over centralization; SIMD-0228 may attract investors, but emission uncertainty needs to be observed. In the future, on-chain data (such as changes in staking rate) will reveal its actual impact.

Outlook

The Ethereum Pectra upgrade and the Solana SIMD-0228 proposal represent different paths of public chain development:

• Pectra consolidates Ethereum’s ecological advantages through comprehensive technical improvements, suitable for investors and developers focusing on long-term technology and user experience. The community’s response seems lukewarm, as of the draft date on March 7th, Ethereum Pectra test encountered errors again, with empty block issues emerging, prompting some developers to call for mainnet upgrade in April or postponement, plunging ETH market sentiment into a trough.
• On the other hand, SIMD-0228 enhances the value attractiveness of SOL through economic model optimization, and this proposal aims to adjust the issuance rate of SOL. The proposal is put forward at this point in time essentially against the backdrop: - In 2024, the Solana ecosystem has ushered in prosperity, but trading activity has gradually started to decline from the All Time High; SOL has become a compliant asset, shifting towards ETFs and institutional assets, with short-term selling pressure on SOL increasing and long-term selling pressure decreasing, which can release liquidity or bring about a short-term on-chain trend of SOL.

The success or failure of both depends on the implementation effect and market acceptance. The concentration risk of Pectra and the market confidence impact of SIMD-0228 will be the focus of future observation, and on-chain data (such as staking rate, inflation rate changes) will be key indicators for evaluating their impact. We look forward to the next 2 months.