Micron Technology (MU) stock has nearly quadrupled year-to-date, becoming one of the most standout semiconductor stocks in the AI memory boom. The Financial Times reported on July 4 that Apple is lobbying the White House to approve procurement of chips from Chinese memory manufacturer ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT), and the same week Apple announced a comprehensive price increase for Mac, iPad, iPhone, and Vision Pro, citing an unprecedented shortage of memory and storage devices.
Apple Lobbying White House for CXMT Procurement Approval: Kuo Ming-chi's "Public Relations Move" Interpretation and CXMT's Own Capacity Constraints
The Financial Times reported that Apple is lobbying the White House to seek approval for procuring chips from CXMT and ensure CXMT is not placed on the U.S. export control "Entity List." TF International analyst Kuo Ming-chi stated that the actual impact of this move on alleviating the overall shortage is limited, as CXMT itself admitted in its IPO prospectus that its capacity is far below China's domestic demand, and "CXMT itself cannot meet its own needs."
Kuo Ming-chi further interpreted that Apple's move is more like a public relations operation: "Even if the lobbying ultimately achieves nothing, coverage by multiple media outlets can still leave the market with the impression that 'Apple has done its best but is constrained by U.S. policy,'" thereby easing external dissatisfaction over price hikes and shortages. He also noted that Apple's proactive stance this time is higher than when it evaluated YMTC (mainly to reduce NAND costs) in 2022, because the nature of DRAM supply risk is completely different.
Jefferies Quantifies DRAM Gap: 7% Supply Growth, 150-200 kwpm Shortage
According to a Jefferies report, the structural data for the DRAM supply chain is as follows:
Bit Supply Growth: Excluding China's factor, global memory bit supply growth in 2026 is only about 7%, and this growth comes entirely from process node shrinkage, not new capacity additions.
Gap Size: A supply gap of 150 to 200 kwpm (thousand wafers per month) persists, as wafer capacity has not expanded, and it is expected to last until 2027.
CSP Capacity Lock-up Rate: Cloud Service Providers (CSPs) have locked in 50% of global memory capacity through LTAs, and this proportion may rise to 70% in the future.
Consumer Electronics Allocation Under Pressure: Consumer electronics manufacturers can hardly secure LTAs, being crowded out by cloud long-term contracts.
Kuo Ming-chi stated that among the memory capacity allocated to consumer electronics in 2026, 15% to 20% is expected to shift to data centers in 2027, and the actual shipment volume of Apple's A20 chip may be 10% to 20% lower than the original target (all are Kuo Ming-chi's personal analysis and estimates, not investment advice).
DRAM's Strategic Position in the AI Inference Era
Citrini analyst Jukan stated that comparing memory within NVIDIA's framework is itself a wrong perspective: "Looking at the key bottleneck in the AI inference era, it is memory. Now AI inference capability is directly linked to revenue, but inference performance does not simply improve by stacking more NVIDIA GPUs." He pointed out that GPUs are often idle due to memory bottlenecks in inference scenarios, making the value of adding memory much higher than adding GPUs.
Jukan quoted renowned investor Gavin Baker's statement on the All-In Podcast: "DRAM is the most important bottleneck. The reason Musk focused his Terafab super fab plan on memory is precisely because he believes memory is the most critical bottleneck—not lasers, not capacitors, not power semiconductors, not NAND, not hard drives, but DRAM." The above are all analysts' personal views.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why is Apple lobbying the White House to procure memory from CXMT, and can this solve the supply shortage?
According to TF International analyst Kuo Ming-chi's statement, the actual help of this move is limited, because CXMT admitted in its own IPO prospectus that its capacity is far below China's domestic demand; the DRAM gap is a structural issue that cannot be solved by changing suppliers. Kuo Ming-chi stated that his personal analysis suggests this move is closer to a public relations operation to ease external dissatisfaction over price increases; specific policy developments are subject to official announcements by the U.S. government.
How has Micron (MU) stock performed year-to-date, and what is the EPS outlook according to institutional analysis?
According to reports, Micron (MU) stock has nearly quadrupled year-to-date. Bernstein analysts stated that benefiting from HBM price increases, the EPS estimates for the three major memory makers (Samsung, SK Hynix, Micron) are expected to peak simultaneously in the second half of 2027, with Micron's growth curve considered the steepest, and the average HBM selling price in 2027 is estimated to rise 2 to 2.5 times year-on-year. The above are institutional analysis estimates and do not constitute investment advice; real-time stock prices are based on market quotes.
What is the specific scale of the DRAM gap and when might it ease?
According to Jefferies reports, the current DRAM supply gap is about 150 to 200 kwpm (thousand wafers per month), with global bit supply growth excluding China's factor at only about 7%. Due to no expansion in wafer capacity, the gap is expected to last until 2027; CSPs have locked in 50% of global capacity, and consumer electronics manufacturers' allocations remain under pressure. Specific capacity dynamics are subject to official announcements from each company and the latest reports from institutions.
