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Barclays Forecasts Gold to Rise to $4,900 Per Ounce by 2027 as Geopolitical Adjustment Fades

GateNews
Metals
XAU0.57%
SPX5000.70%
According to Barclays Bank, as reported by Jin10 on June 16, gold's recent selloff triggered by Middle East tensions represents a market reset rather than a reversal. The bank attributes the decline to three factors: U.S. dollar strength, equity market rallying that shifted risk capital from defensive assets, and concentrated positioning that accelerated losses. Barclays estimates that dollar strength combined with a 10% S&P 500 gain caused roughly 10% of gold's decline, with the remainder from position liquidations. The bank currently pegs gold trading near its fair value estimate of $4,150 per ounce and maintains its forecasts of $4,791 per ounce in 2026 and $4,900 in 2027. Structural factors supporting the longer-term bullish trend include persistent inflation, policy uncertainty, and central bank currency diversification. Barclays calculates that each percentage point increase in inflation drives gold prices up approximately 5%, suggesting energy-shock inflation legacies will eventually provide support.
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