Bernstein Holds Ambitious $150K Year-End Bitcoin Target Despite 54% Drawdown to $62.6K

According to Bernstein analysts led by Gautam Chhugani, Bitcoin was trading around $62,600 on July 6 after a 54% drawdown from October 2025's peak near $125,000. Despite the correction, Bernstein maintained its year-end target of $150,000, which the firm acknowledged as "ambitious" given current market conditions.

The 54% decline is milder than the 75–90% drawdowns that ended previous cycles, with the correction running three quarters from the cycle top versus the historical norm of 12–15 months. Bernstein pointed to net positive inflows of $10 billion in 2026, down from $60 billion in 2025, as evidence that the underlying flow picture appears calmer than market sentiment suggests.