Bitcoin market analysts predict a potential July rebound based on historical trading patterns and recent on-chain activity. From 2021 to 2024, Bitcoin recorded positive returns in July in four out of five years, with gains ranging from 6.9% to 28.0%, according to data from domestic Korean exchanges and crypto analytics platform CoinGlass, which reported a 7.4% average July return from 2013 to 2025. The rebound thesis is supported by Glassnode's observation that long-term holder Net Position Change turned positive and expectations of institutional fund inflows following June's spot ETF outflows. However, uncertainty remains around U.S. monetary policy and regulatory developments, with differing analyst views on whether the crypto winter has ended.
Bitcoin Records Positive July Returns in Four of Five Recent Years
Bitcoin posted gains in July 2024, rising from 86 million KRW to 92 million KRW, a 6.9% increase, based on domestic Korean exchange data. In July 2023, Bitcoin fell 5.0% from 40 million KRW to 38 million KRW, marking the only decline in the five-year period examined. July 2022 saw a 28.0% gain, while July 2021 recorded a 12.5% increase. July 2020 showed a 12.4% rise from 145 million KRW to 163 million KRW. CoinGlass data spanning 2013 to 2025 indicated Bitcoin's average July return reached 7.4%, with the pattern holding across both bull and bear market cycles.
Long-Term Holders Resume Accumulation as Short Liquidation Risk Rises
On-chain analytics firm Glassnode reported that Bitcoin's long-term holder Net Position Change (NPC) recently turned positive. NPC measures the 30-day net holding change among investors who have held Bitcoin for at least 155 days. The positive shift indicates that sustained selling by long-term holders has stopped and buying activity has resumed. Separately, analysts noted that if Bitcoin reaches $67,645 (approximately 104.6 million KRW), short covering by investors could trigger cascading buy orders and amplify upward momentum. Expectations of renewed institutional inflows following large-scale spot ETF outflows in June also contribute to the rebound outlook.
Analysts Diverge on Crypto Winter End and Market Bottom Timing
Standard Chartered's head of digital asset research, Jeff Kendrick, stated in a recent report that Bitcoin's decline to $59,000 is likely the cycle's lowest point, adding that the market's winter has ended. Kendrick suggested investors may have sold Bitcoin spot ETFs to participate in SpaceX's initial public offering, and he expects large-scale outflows to subside. Investment bank Cantor Fitzgerald presented a contrasting view in a recent report, stating that the crypto market is entering the final stage of a bear cycle and predicting a bottom formation around late October based on Bitcoin's historical trading patterns. Cantor Fitzgerald's analysis mentioned that several months remain until the market reaches its floor. Uncertainty around U.S. interest rate policy and delays in regulatory frameworks such as the Clarity Act were cited as ongoing risk factors.
FAQ
What was Bitcoin's performance in July over the past five years?
Bitcoin recorded positive returns in July in four out of five years from 2021 to 2024, according to domestic Korean exchange data. July 2024 saw a 6.9% gain, July 2022 a 28.0% gain, July 2021 a 12.5% gain, and July 2020 a 12.4% gain. The only decline occurred in July 2023, when Bitcoin fell 5.0%. CoinGlass data covering 2013 to 2025 showed an average July return of 7.4%.
What does Glassnode's Net Position Change indicator show for Bitcoin?
Glassnode reported that Bitcoin's long-term holder Net Position Change (NPC) recently turned positive. NPC tracks the 30-day net holding change among investors who have held Bitcoin for at least 155 days. A positive NPC indicates that long-term holders have stopped net selling and resumed accumulation.
Do analysts agree that the crypto winter has ended?
Analysts are divided. Standard Chartered's Jeff Kendrick stated that Bitcoin's decline to $59,000 is likely the cycle's lowest point and that the market's winter has ended. Cantor Fitzgerald, however, predicted that the crypto market is in the final stage of a bear cycle and expects a bottom around late October, suggesting several months remain before the market reaches its floor.
