CryptoQuant: Bitcoin's April Rally Was Speculative, Correction Risk Looms

Onchain analytics firm CryptoQuant has characterized Bitcoin’s April price surge as a “speculative rally” lacking fundamental buying support, warning of increased correction risk. According to CryptoQuant’s head of research Julio Moreno, the rally was driven primarily by perpetual futures demand rather than spot market accumulation, a pattern historically associated with unsustained price gains.

April Price Movement and Demand Divergence

Bitcoin rose approximately 20% in April, climbing from around $66,000 to as high as $79,000. However, this price gain was driven almost entirely by growth in perpetual futures demand, while spot demand remained negative throughout the entire period, CryptoQuant reported.

“Perpetual futures demand was the sole driver of bitcoin’s April price rally, while spot apparent demand contracted throughout, a configuration historically associated with unsustained price gains during bear markets,” Moreno wrote in the firm’s analysis.

The divergence between rising futures demand and contracting spot demand represents a clear onchain signal that the rally is speculative rather than structural, Moreno explained. This pattern suggests the price increase is driven by leverage rather than fresh bitcoin accumulation.

CryptoQuant’s onchain analysis showing the divergence between futures and spot demand during April’s price rally.

Lack of Structural Foundation

“Historically, such configurations lack the structural foundation required to sustain price gains and typically resolve via correction once futures positioning unwinds,” Moreno stated.

CryptoQuant noted that sustained price rallies during bull markets typically coincide with demand growth across both futures and spot markets. “Without a reversal in apparent demand from negative to positive, rallies back toward the $79,000 local peak will lack the onchain support needed for a sustained breakout,” the firm said.

Comparison to 2022 Bear Market

CryptoQuant identified the current demand pattern as similar to conditions observed at the start of the 2022 bear market. While the firm acknowledged this does not guarantee an identical outcome this time, it noted that the current structure carries “meaningful downside risk.”

Bull Score Index Signals Deterioration

The CryptoQuant Bull Score Index declined from 50 to 40 in April, falling back into bearish territory below the neutral threshold. This decline confirms that onchain fundamentals deteriorated following the recent speculative futures-driven price rally, according to the firm.

“The Bull Score of returning back to 40 indicates conditions are ‘getting bearish’ and places the market in the same range that historically preceded continued price weakness,” CryptoQuant concluded. The Bull Score Index aggregates multiple onchain and market indicators on a 0–100 scale, with scores above 50 indicating bullish conditions and below 50 indicating bearish conditions.

CryptoQuant Bull Score Index showing the decline from 50 to 40 in April, signaling deteriorating market conditions.

Current Price Status

Bitcoin was trading at approximately $78,500 as of the time of reporting, nearly flat over the preceding 24 hours.