Spot gold traded near $4,012.80 an ounce in early U.S. trading Thursday, up 0.36%, while spot silver traded near $58.130, up 1.44%, as bargain hunting emerged after a four-session selloff. The gains occurred despite the U.S. dollar remaining near a one-year high and Treasury yields holding near the 4.4% area. May PCE data rose 0.4% monthly and 4.1% annually, matching annual consensus and coming slightly below the 0.5% monthly forecast, doing little to remove Federal Reserve policy constraints on precious metals. The market continues to trade off the June 17 Federal Reserve reset, where nine Fed officials projected at least one rate hike before year-end, leaving gold and silver exposed to higher real-rate expectations.
PCE Data Release Matches Consensus Expectations
May PCE rose 0.4% on the month and 4.1% from a year earlier, matching the annual consensus and coming in slightly below the 0.5% monthly forecast. U.S. stock futures strengthened after the release, with Nasdaq 100 futures up 2.3%, S&P 500 futures up 0.8% and Dow futures up 0.2%, reflecting relief that the print was not hotter than expected.
FOMC Held Rates at 3.50%-3.75% on June 17
The FOMC held the target range at 3.50% to 3.75% in a unanimous 12-0 vote on June 17. The updated projections moved the debate away from 2026 cuts and toward at least one possible hike before year-end. Nine Fed officials projected at least one hike in 2026, a shift that has left gold and silver exposed to higher real-rate expectations even as oil has backed away from its war premium.
Strait of Hormuz Tanker Traffic Doubled Over 24 Hours
Brent crude fell to $72.24 a barrel, near prewar levels, after tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz doubled over 24 hours to the highest level since late February and vessels resumed transiting with satellite signals switched on. That has removed part of the immediate safe-haven bid for gold, softened inflation fear in energy markets and helped risk assets recover. The U.S.-Iran ceasefire and shipping recovery remain politically fragile.
Dollar Index and Treasury Yields Hold Elevated Levels
Nymex WTI crude oil prices were lower and trading around the $70 area, while Brent crude was near $72.24. The U.S. dollar index is firmer near 101.64. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is trading near the 4.4% area.
Technical Targets for Spot Gold
Spot gold bulls' next upside price objective is to push prices back above the $4,023.00 to $4,090.00 resistance zone, with a sustained move targeting $4,357.00 and then $4,597.00. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is a break below $3,900.00, with deeper downside targets at $3,830.00 and then $3,800.00. First resistance is seen at $4,023.00 and then at $4,090.00. First support is seen at $3,900.00 and then at $3,830.00.
Technical Targets for Spot Silver
Spot silver bulls' next upside price objective is to drive prices back above the $59.62 to $62.00 area, with a move above that zone targeting $71.49 and then $72.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is a break below $57.20, with deeper downside targets at $53.40 and then $51.26. First resistance is seen at $59.62 and then at $62.00. Next support is seen at $57.20 and then at $53.40.
Frequently Asked Questions
What did the May PCE data show?
May PCE rose 0.4% on the month and 4.1% from a year earlier, matching the annual consensus and coming in slightly below the 0.5% monthly forecast.
What did the FOMC decide on June 17?
The FOMC held the target range at 3.50% to 3.75% in a unanimous 12-0 vote, with nine Fed officials projecting at least one rate hike before year-end.
How did Strait of Hormuz tanker traffic change?
Tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz doubled over 24 hours to the highest level since late February, with vessels resuming transits with satellite signals switched on.
