Gold Trapped in $250 Range Since FOMC as Iran Conflict Overshadows Economic Data; Indian Silver Premiums Hit 10% on Import Curbs

According to Heraeus precious metals analysts, gold prices have remained trapped between $3,950 and $4,200 per ounce since the Federal Reserve's June 17 meeting, with market participants prioritizing geopolitical concerns over positive economic data. Despite three successive price releases—PCE, CPI, and PPI—coming in below expectations in June, which typically would support gold, markets are instead focused on renewed U.S.-Iran conflict tensions and potential disruptions to the Strait of Hormuz. Headline CPI fell from 4.2% in May to 3.5% in June, yet the ongoing geopolitical risk has capped gold's upside, with spot gold last trading at $4,009.76.

Meanwhile, India's mid-May import restrictions on silver have created a domestic supply shortage, pushing local premiums to $6.50 per ounce—over 10% above benchmark prices—despite weak demand. Silver imports plummeted to just 1.0 million ounces in May and June each, down 84% year-over-year and over 90% below the five-year average, after the government raised import duties to 15% and tightened rules to include silver grain and powder. Spot silver last traded at $56.962 per ounce, up 1.90% on the session.