Goldman Sachs Raises S&P 500 Ten-Year Return Forecast to 7% From 3%, Revising "Lost Decade" Prediction

Goldman Sachs reversed its prior "lost decade" forecast for U.S. equities on June 29, according to newly appointed Chief U.S. Equity Strategist Ben Snider. The firm now expects the S&P 500 to deliver annualized returns of approximately 7% over the next decade, nearly double its October 2024 prediction of just 3% by former strategist David Kostin.

Snider argued that investors should not assume valuation multiples will revert to long-term historical averages, citing persistently elevated corporate profit margins and relatively low interest rates as structural support for higher valuations. While the 7% forecast remains below the S&P 500's historical average return of roughly 10% since the 1950s, the shift signals growing optimism at Goldman despite continued disagreement across Wall Street, with several strategists still maintaining "lost decade" outlooks.