Grayscale Investments published a June 9 research report stating that bitcoin now trades below its long-term valuation average following a recent drop below $60,000 to a new cycle low. Head of Research Zach Pandl wrote that a composite onchain valuation indicator suggests BTC is undervalued relative to historical trends, though not as deeply discounted as previous cyclical lows such as the period after the FTX collapse. Pandl identified two factors that could determine bitcoin's next move: progress on the CLARITY Act in the U.S. Senate and whether leveraged traders can withstand current market pressure without triggering forced selling.
Onchain Valuation Indicators Show BTC Below Historical Average
Grayscale's June 9 report analyzed bitcoin's current price level using a composite onchain valuation indicator. Pandl wrote in response to the question "Is Bitcoin Cheap Yet?" that "the answer---according to the signal from a range of onchain valuation indicators---is yes, but not as much as previous cyclical lows." The latest readings show BTC below its long-term valuation average, but not near the deeper discounts seen after the FTX collapse.
The valuation model combines three onchain indicators. Net Unrealized Profit and Loss (NUPL) measures whether holders are sitting on gains or losses. Price/Cumulative Value Days Destroyed (CVDD) compares bitcoin's price with a long-term value benchmark based on the movement of long-held coins. Market Cap/Thermo Cap compares bitcoin's market value with cumulative miner revenue.
Pandl stated: "We believe that this bear market may be shallower than in the past, given a more muted preceding bull market, as well as improvements in market structure from ETP availability, wealth platform deployment, and other types of institutional adoption." The report argues that exchange-traded products, wealth platform access, and institutional adoption may help explain why bitcoin may not need to revisit earlier bear-market extremes before attracting buyers.
CLARITY Act Senate Vote and Leveraged Trader Behavior Identified as Key Catalysts
Grayscale identified two factors that could determine bitcoin's next move. The first is the fate of the CLARITY Act in the U.S. Senate. The legislation would establish a federal market structure for digital assets, including rules for token classifications, exchanges, brokers, custody, and disclosures. The U.S. House passed the measure in 2025, and the Senate Banking Committee advanced it in a bipartisan vote in May. The bill still requires approval from the full Senate.
Pandl stated: "We remain optimistic about CLARITY but prediction markets say it's a tossup." The report frames the legislation as a near-term catalyst that could influence how investors assess regulatory risk in digital assets.
The second factor is whether leveraged bitcoin holders can withstand current market pressure without triggering additional selling. If heavily leveraged investors are forced to unwind positions, bitcoin could face renewed downside volatility. Grayscale's analysis suggests that stabilized leverage could ease concerns about forced selling, while regulatory progress could support confidence.
For now, Grayscale believes bitcoin's current valuation may offer an attractive opportunity for long-term investors. The firm is not calling a definitive market bottom, but its research suggests BTC trades at a discount relative to historical norms.
FAQ
What did Grayscale's June 9 report say about bitcoin's valuation?
Grayscale's June 9 research report stated that bitcoin now trades below its long-term valuation average according to a composite onchain indicator. Head of Research Zach Pandl wrote that BTC is undervalued relative to historical trends, though not as deeply discounted as previous cyclical lows such as the period after the FTX collapse.
What are the two catalysts Grayscale identified for bitcoin's next move?
Grayscale identified progress on the CLARITY Act in the U.S. Senate and the behavior of leveraged bitcoin holders as two factors that could determine BTC's next move. The CLARITY Act passed the U.S. House in 2025 and advanced the Senate Banking Committee in May, but still requires approval from the full Senate. Grayscale's report states that if heavily leveraged investors are forced to unwind positions, bitcoin could face renewed downside volatility.
Which onchain indicators does Grayscale use to assess bitcoin's valuation?
Grayscale's valuation model combines three onchain indicators: Net Unrealized Profit and Loss (NUPL), which measures whether holders are sitting on gains or losses; Price/Cumulative Value Days Destroyed (CVDD), which compares bitcoin's price with a long-term value benchmark based on the movement of long-held coins; and Market Cap/Thermo Cap, which compares bitcoin's market value with cumulative miner revenue.
