Hana Securities analyst Lee Jae-man stated in a report on the 12th that it's now time to consider rebound triggers for Korean stocks. Lee, who previously predicted SK Hynix overtaking Samsung Electronics' market cap as a bull market end signal, diagnosed that KOSPI's short-term correction has reached extreme levels. He identified the US Consumer Price Index announcement on the 14th as this week's key variable for rebound strategy.
KOSPI200 Correction Reaches Historic Depth
Lee stated in his report titled 'US Inflation-Dependent Rebound Strategy' that KOSPI's short-term price correction has progressed to an extreme level, making it a point to consider rebound triggers rather than additional decline. Among KOSPI200 stocks, 89% have fallen more than 30% from this year's highs. This proportion exceeds the 86% recorded during the Federal Reserve's rate hikes in 2022 and the 63% recorded during the mutual tariff announcement in 2025.
US CPI on the 14th Identified as Maximum Market Variable
Lee identified the US June CPI announcement on the 14th as this week's maximum market variable. Analyzing past cases, he found that market flows were better when CPI met or fell below market expectations compared to when it exceeded them. He analyzed that short-term rebound possibilities would increase if the CPI at minimum meets expectations. The current forecast stands at 3.8%, expected to be lower than May's 4.2%, which recorded the largest increase in 3 years and 1 month.
Sector Recommendations Vary by CPI Outcome
Lee projected that sectors of interest would differ depending on CPI results. If the data meets expectations, he presented defense, power equipment, energy, banking, and securities as sectors of interest. If it falls below expectations, he suggested shipbuilding, hardware, construction, and securities. He evaluated semiconductors as a sector showing relatively favorable flows regardless of CPI results.
Analyst's May Prediction Gained Market Attention
In his May report 'KOSPI, Now Era of 10,000 Points,' Lee predicted that volatility would be large during bull markets and foresaw SK Hynix overtaking Samsung Electronics' market cap as a bull market end signal. After the market actually entered a correction phase, the report gained attention among investors as a 'holy site.'
FAQ
What did Hana Securities analyst Lee Jae-man say about Korean stocks on the 12th?
Lee Jae-man stated in a report on the 12th that KOSPI's short-term correction has reached extreme levels and it's now time to consider rebound triggers rather than further decline. He identified the US CPI announcement on the 14th as the key variable for this week's market strategy.
How severe is the current KOSPI200 correction compared to past events?
Among KOSPI200 stocks, 89% have fallen more than 30% from this year's highs. This proportion exceeds the 86% recorded during the Federal Reserve's rate hikes in 2022 and the 63% recorded during the mutual tariff announcement in 2025.
Which sectors does Lee Jae-man recommend based on US CPI results?
If CPI meets expectations, Lee presented defense, power equipment, energy, banking, and securities as sectors of interest. If CPI falls below expectations, he suggested shipbuilding, hardware, construction, and securities. Semiconductors were evaluated as showing favorable flows regardless of CPI results.
