Kalshi Prices Platner's Maine Senate Exit at 82% Following Sexual Assault Allegation

On Monday (July 6), traders on Kalshi repriced the odds of Maine Democratic Senate candidate Graham Platner exiting the race before July 14 to an all-time high of 82%, up from single digits earlier in the day, following sexual assault allegations reported by Politico. Kalshi contracts extending to late July price his exit even higher—around 97% by July 31—reflecting near-certainty that his candidacy will not survive the month.

Polymarket's Maine Senate election market swung sharply on the news, with Democrats settling at 59% and Republicans at 41%, down from Democrats' 70% edge through spring. A newly created Polymarket contract on the Democratic replacement nominee already prices former state Senate president Troy Jackson as the frontrunner, with Platner's share collapsing to low single digits.