Yuanta Securities forecasts KOSPI-listed companies' Q2 operating profit at 227.7 trillion won, up 234% year-over-year, in a report released on the 16th. Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix account for two-thirds of total profit, yet excluding them still yields a 44% gain at 78.4 trillion won. Broad-based growth in semiconductors (1031% YoY), energy (675% YoY), and IT hardware (259% YoY) underpins expectations for positive stock reactions post-earnings. The report highlights that while profit concentration in the Big Two remains a concern, the diversified earnings improvement across Korean stocks supports a constructive outlook for the sector.
KOSPI Q2 Operating Profit Forecast Reaches 227.7 Trillion Won
Yuanta Securities analyst Ahn Ji-seon estimates KOSPI Q2 operating profit at approximately 227.7 trillion won, a 234% increase from the same period last year. Net profit attributable to controlling shareholders is projected at 176.7 trillion won, up 265.6% year-over-year. Recent Q2 profit estimates have been slightly revised downward, but the year-over-year growth rate remains substantial. Excluding Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, KOSPI operating profit is expected to reach about 78.4 trillion won, a 44% increase, with net profit at 53.8 trillion won, up 48%. The two semiconductor giants' share of total KOSPI operating profit stands at 66%, and 70% of net profit, underscoring the market's dependence on large-cap semiconductor stocks.
Semiconductor and Energy Sectors Lead Earnings Growth
By sector, semiconductors are forecast to post a 1031% year-over-year increase in Q2 operating profit. Energy is expected to rise 675%, IT hardware 259%, and shipbuilding 152%. Display and construction sectors are projected to grow 93% and 55%, respectively. Conversely, transportation operating profit is estimated to decline 3%, trading and capital goods 7%, consumer staples 10%, cosmetics 14%, and utilities 21%. Full-year KOSPI operating profit estimates have been raised to approximately 970 trillion won, a 223.2% increase from the prior year, up from 910 trillion won estimated at the end of May. Net profit estimates also rose from 712 trillion won to 759 trillion won over the same period.
Valuation Metrics and Foreign Investor Flows
Ahn notes that banks, securities, energy, and construction sectors have seen limited stock price gains relative to earnings improvements. Earnings per share estimates have risen sharply since the start of the year, but valuations remain attractive as stock prices have not fully reflected the upgrades. When KOSPI was at 7476, the 12-month forward price-to-earnings ratio stood at 6.4 times, well below the historical range of 9 to 11 times. However, the trailing price-to-book ratio of 2.1 times is near the index's all-time high, leading to mixed valuation signals. Foreign investors remain a headwind, having net sold 160 trillion won in KOSPI stocks year-to-date through the 15th, while retail and institutional investors net bought 106 trillion won and 39 trillion won, respectively. Foreign selling began in November after net purchases of about 20 trillion won from May to October last year.
Yuanta Securities Lists 13 Stocks as Earnings Surprise Candidates
Ahn highlights the "post-earnings-announcement drift" phenomenon, where stock prices continue to move in the same direction after earnings releases. Analysis of the past 40 quarters shows that strategies based on operating profit surprises outperformed those based on net profit, and investing at the closing price on announcement day proved effective. Yuanta identifies stocks with rapidly rising operating profit estimates over the past month as Q2 earnings surprise candidates: POSCO Future M, Lotte Chemical, Kumho Petrochemical, NH Investment & Securities, Mirae Asset Securities, Samsung Securities, Kiwoom Securities, Korea Financial Group, SK, HVM, CJ CGV, LG Innotek, and Sungil Hitech.
FAQ
What is the KOSPI Q2 operating profit forecast for this year?
Yuanta Securities analyst Ahn Ji-seon estimates KOSPI Q2 operating profit at approximately 227.7 trillion won, a 234% increase from the same period last year, with net profit projected at 176.7 trillion won, up 265.6% year-over-year.
Which sectors are leading KOSPI earnings growth in Q2?
Semiconductors are forecast to post a 1031% year-over-year increase in Q2 operating profit, followed by energy (675%), IT hardware (259%), and shipbuilding (152%), according to Yuanta Securities.
Which stocks does Yuanta Securities identify as Q2 earnings surprise candidates?
Yuanta lists POSCO Future M, Lotte Chemical, Kumho Petrochemical, NH Investment & Securities, Mirae Asset Securities, Samsung Securities, Kiwoom Securities, Korea Financial Group, SK, HVM, CJ CGV, LG Innotek, and Sungil Hitech as Q2 earnings surprise candidates based on rapidly rising operating profit estimates.
