According to a June 4 report by the New York Post, Polymarket, a prediction market platform, is investigating whether its competitor Kalshi has engaged in corporate espionage against it. Polymarket has reportedly compiled a “copycat” work file of about 12 incidents, and is concerned that Kalshi’s venture investors, Paradigm, may have set up surveillance across from its Manhattan office.
Three Main Investigations: Records of Confirmed Timing Overlaps
Based on reports by the New York Post and the Washington Post, the suspicious timing-overlap cases recorded in Polymarket’s “copycat” file include the following confirmed examples:
Case One: Grocery store event (February 2026) Polymarket’s team began planning a “pop-up” grocery store in November 2025, planning to open in Manhattan on February 12, 2026, and signing a $643,380 lease agreement in January. However, about 9 days before the Polymarket event opening, Kalshi launched a food and grocery promotion campaign at the Westside Market supermarket in New York’s East Village, offering customers $50 vouchers. Kalshi communications director Elisabeth Diana confirmed that Kalshi’s event was planned independently and not based on any internal information from Polymarket; a Kalshi spokesperson said the two companies were apparently both inspired by the same campaign-backed grocery store policy views from the mayoral race in New York City.
Case Two: Sustainable futures (perps) announcement (April 21, 2026) Polymarket’s internal team set the announcement time for its perps product as April 21. About 1 hour before the scheduled announcement time, the tech outlet The Information published an article citing anonymous sources, saying Kalshi was preparing its own perps trading product. Kalshi spokesperson Such said Kalshi has been developing its perps product since 2024, and The Information may have gotten the information from a teaser post Kalshi shared on X on April 13.
Case Three: “Hey California” ad (August 2025) Polymarket began running football betting ads targeted at California users on Meta on Friday, August 22, with large text at the top reading “Hey California.” By Monday, Kalshi had rolled out ads that were nearly identical, using the same “Hey California” banner. Kalshi responded that Polymarket has no copyright or trademark rights over the extremely common phrase “Hey California,” and said “attributing such a coincidence to corporate espionage is delusion.”
Official Responses from Kalshi and Paradigm
A Paradigm spokesperson (Kalshi’s venture investor, whose Soho office overlooks the street directly across from Polymarket’s office) said: “This is ridiculous.”
Kalshi spokesperson Jack Such’s overall response to the espionage allegations was: “It’s regrettable—it’s pure fantasy.”
Polymarket’s office is located in the Soho area of Lower Manhattan, and Paradigm rents offices on the same block. An insider said Paradigm’s office lines of sight cover parts of Polymarket’s office. Polymarket put window film on some office windows this spring.
The Two Companies’ Funding Scale and Regulatory Background
According to PitchBook data and public reporting:
Polymarket: Since being founded in 2020, it has raised about $2 billion, and its valuation target for the most recent funding round negotiations is about $15 billion
Kalshi: Since being founded in 2018, it has raised about $2.6 billion, and its latest valuation is $22 billion (twice the valuation from December last year)
Regulatory background: Kalshi is regulated by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC); most of Polymarket’s business is conducted overseas, and the limited products it offers in the U.S. are regulated by the CFTC.
FAQ
What types of content are included in Polymarket’s “copycat” file?
According to the New York Post report, Polymarket’s “copycat” file contains about 12 incidents. The formats include screenshots of announcements from the two companies, comparisons of social media posts, and side-by-side screenshots created with programming. A Polymarket executive said the file only records “one-tenth” of the suspicious incidents.
Can Paradigm’s office really see Polymarket employees’ computer screens?
According to sources cited by the New York Post, Paradigm’s Soho office “may” be able to see parts of Polymarket’s office, including employees’ computer screens. As a result, Polymarket put film on some office windows this spring. Paradigm denies any surveillance activity and says the allegations are “too ridiculous.” Neither side provided direct technical evidence to support or refute the claim.
How do the regulatory statuses differ for the two companies’ prediction markets in the U.S.?
Kalshi is fully regulated by the CFTC in the U.S., and can legally provide prediction market services within the U.S.; most of Polymarket’s business is conducted overseas, and the limited product categories it offers in the U.S. are regulated by the CFTC. In 2026, U.S. lawmakers and regulators are increasing scrutiny over whether prediction markets may contribute to insider trading and war gambling issues.
