SpaceX Shares Drop 2% Overnight as Pre-IPO Lockup Expirations Loom, Potentially Boosting QQQ Weight

SpaceX shares (SPCX) fell 2% overnight late Sunday as attention turned to upcoming lockup expirations, according to Morningstar. The company's first earnings report as a public firm is scheduled for August 4, with nearly 1 billion pre-IPO shares becoming eligible for sale just two days later—more than the 629 million shares sold in SpaceX's June IPO.

With an unusually small initial float of only about 5%, SpaceX's public float could triple by end-September as lockups expire, according to Morningstar estimates. At an unchanged share price, this would boost the company's float-adjusted market cap to approximately $675 billion, positioning it between Walmart and Intel in Nasdaq rankings. SpaceX currently represents 0.98% of the Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 ETF portfolio as of July 22. Morningstar warned, however, that lockup-driven selling pressure from over 6.4 billion potentially eligible shares could outweigh index fund demand, creating a "large technical overhang."