Trump Backs CFTC on Prediction Markets, but TD Cowen Says Legal Fight Unchanged

According to TD Cowen analyst Jaret Seiberg, President Trump's Truth Social post on Tuesday (May 26) backing the CFTC's exclusive authority over prediction markets is unlikely to materially shift the broader legal dispute over event contracts. Seiberg noted that Trump's support aligns with CFTC Chair Michael Selig's advocacy, but the critical issue now rests with federal courts rather than regulators. Prediction market platforms Polymarket and Kalshi continue facing state-level legal cases over gambling-related contracts. Seiberg expects the Supreme Court will ultimately decide whether Congress preempted state laws on sports gambling, and litigation could take two years or longer to resolve.
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