Arete analyst Andrew Beale has given SpaceX a "Buy" rating with a target price of $401 by the end of next year, implying a market cap of approximately $5.3 trillion; Oppenheimer analyst Tim Horan predicts SpaceX's market cap could reach $10 trillion within five years. SpaceX briefly became the fourth-largest company in the U.S. by market cap three days after its IPO.
Arete analyst Beale sets SpaceX year-end target price of $401
Arete analyst Beale sets SpaceX's target price at $401 by the end of next year, implying a market cap of approximately $5.3 trillion, higher than NVIDIA's current market cap of about $4.7 trillion. Oppenheimer analyst Horan predicts SpaceX's market cap could reach $10 trillion within five years. Both analysts point to Starlink as the main growth driver: connectivity business revenue of $11.4 billion in 2025 (61% of total sales), with 12 million users as of this month, covering over 160 countries.
Musk has stated that the upgraded V3 Starlink satellites will launch later this year, with download speeds 10 times that of the V2 version and even greater uplink capacity improvements. SpaceX's launch business is expected to account for 80% of total U.S. commercial launches in 2025; the AI business posted a loss in 2025 but has leased computing power to Anthropic and Alphabet and acquired AI coding tool startup Cursor in an all-stock deal worth $60 billion.
SpaceX 2025 revenue $18.7 billion, net loss $4.9 billion, price-to-sales ratio 108x
SpaceX generated $18.7 billion in revenue in 2025 (up 33% year-over-year), but posted a net loss of $4.9 billion, with significant investment in rockets, constellations, and AI. Less than two weeks after a record $75 billion IPO, SpaceX raised another $2.5 billion through a bond issuance. Based on price-to-sales ratio, SpaceX is around 108x, while NVIDIA is about 18x, a gap of roughly 5x.
NVIDIA FY2026 revenue $215.9 billion, up 65% year-over-year
NVIDIA achieved $215.9 billion in revenue in its fiscal year 2026 (ending January 25, 2026) (up 65% year-over-year), with gross margins exceeding 70% and net profit of $120 billion. With the four major hyperscale data center operators expected to invest $600 billion to $700 billion in data centers this year, NVIDIA remains the leader in the chip industry, with a current market cap of about $4.7 trillion.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the highest Wall Street analyst forecast for SpaceX's market cap?
Oppenheimer analyst Tim Horan predicts SpaceX's market cap could reach $10 trillion within five years; Arete analyst Andrew Beale sets a target price of $401 by the end of next year, implying a market cap of about $5.3 trillion, both higher than NVIDIA's current market cap of about $4.7 trillion.
What is SpaceX's current financial situation?
SpaceX generated $18.7 billion in revenue in 2025 (up 33% year-over-year), but posted a net loss of $4.9 billion; its price-to-sales ratio is about 108x, much higher than NVIDIA's about 18x. Starlink's connectivity business is the only profitable core business, with revenue of $11.4 billion in 2025, accounting for 61% of total sales.
What is NVIDIA's current financial strength?
NVIDIA achieved $215.9 billion in revenue in its fiscal year 2026 (ending January 25, 2026) (up 65% year-over-year), with gross margins exceeding 70% and net profit of $120 billion, and a current market cap of about $4.7 trillion.
