Strategy (MSTR) is suspected of selling 491 Bitcoin on the evening of July 1, with the news released on July 3 by Light (@lightcrypto), a well-known crypto trader who had been silent for over a year, based on on-chain data monitoring. Arkham analyst Emmett Gallic stated that the authenticity remains to be verified, as the address behavior involved differs from known Anchorage custodian addresses.
Light's On-Chain Monitoring Data: 491 BTC Suspected Sold and Arkham's Address Behavior Doubts
（Source: Light）
Well-known trader Light posted on the X platform on July 3, 2026, stating based on his on-chain data monitoring that Strategy is suspected of selling 491 Bitcoin on the evening of July 1. Light had previously warned of the Terra LUNA collapse in 2022, and his re-emergence after over a year of silence has drawn significant market attention.
Arkham analyst Emmett Gallic questioned the authenticity of this news, stating that the address behavior involved "differs from the confirmed Anchorage custodian address," noting that its UTXO sources, withdrawal patterns, use of Galaxy Deposit, and counterparties do not match Strategy's past large-scale operation characteristics, and the amount is far smaller than the usual scale.
Strategy's Digital Credit Capital Framework: Selling Authorization, 12-Month Reserve Target, and Buyback Mechanism
Strategy officially announced the "Digital Credit Capital Framework" on July 1, 2026 (this Monday), with main contents including:
Unscheduled Bitcoin Selling Authorization: Authorizes, under appropriate circumstances, selling Bitcoin to support preferred stock dividend payments.
Minimum Cash Reserve Target: Sets a reserve level equivalent to 12 months of preferred stock dividends and interest expenses; the current reserve of $2.55 billion can cover approximately 17 months of expenses.
Stock Buyback Authorization: Authorizes the repurchase of preferred and common stock as part of a broader capital structure strategy.
Historical Precedent: From May 26 to 31, 32 Bitcoin were sold to pay dividends (as disclosed in regulatory filings on June 1).
JPMorgan Warning: Two-Way Capital Flow Risk and 24-36 Month Reserve Coverage Recommendation
JPMorgan analysts (the team led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou) pointed out in a Wednesday report that Strategy's allowance of selective Bitcoin sales introduces "an avoidable two-way capital flow risk" to the market, stating that greater price volatility could ultimately harm the company itself and increase the cost of future equity and debt financing.
JPMorgan suggested that Strategy increase its cash reserve coverage to 24-36 months (by issuing common stock to increase USD reserves, even if this may cause the common stock to trade below net asset value) in order to reassure investors.
In terms of background data, Strategy has purchased approximately $13.7 billion worth of Bitcoin year-to-date, accounting for about 70% of JPMorgan's estimated total net inflows into digital assets; Bitcoin spot ETFs experienced a record $4 billion net outflow in June 2026, with year-to-date inflows turning negative for the first time.
Frequently Asked Questions
Has Light's claim that Strategy sold 491 Bitcoin been officially verified?
According to assessment by Arkham analyst Emmett Gallic, the behavior of the involved address differs from the known Strategy custodian address (Anchorage), and its transaction characteristics do not match Strategy's past large-scale operation patterns, so the authenticity remains to be verified; the specific sales situation is subject to disclosure in Strategy's official regulatory filings.
What new authorities does Strategy's "Digital Credit Capital Framework" grant?
According to Strategy's announcement, the framework grants the company the authority to sell Bitcoin to support preferred stock dividend payments under appropriate circumstances, while setting a minimum cash reserve target of 12 months of expense coverage, and authorizing buybacks of preferred and common stock; the current reserve of $2.55 billion can cover approximately 17 months.
What is JPMorgan's main recommendation for Strategy?
According to JPMorgan's (JPM) Wednesday report, analysts recommend that Strategy increase its cash reserve coverage from the current 17 months to 24-36 months (achievable through issuing common stock) to reassure investors that the company will not need to sell Bitcoin in the foreseeable future, thereby reducing market concerns about two-way risk.
