BNB Chain's core incubator YZi Labs recently announced a collaboration with the leading DEX PancakeSwap to jointly incubate a brand new on-chain prediction market platform called Probable. The platform features zero fees, one-click deposit, and settlement based on UMA's optimistic Oracle Machine, aiming to create an ultimate user experience. This move is a key step for YZi Labs in the systematic layout of the prediction market track, with its investments in projects such as Opinion and predict.fun already forming a matrix. Through an internal "horse racing mechanism," YZi Labs is fully committed to promoting BNB Chain to compete with pioneers like Polymarket in this track, indicating that prediction markets will become the core narrative of the next wave of ecological explosion.

Polymarket made a "Yes" ruling in a market valued at $16 million, where the market asked whether the Trump administration would declassify UFO files in 2025, but no documents were released. During the closing trading session, whales bought heavily at prices ranging from $0.99 to $0.999, ultimately forcing the "Approve" outcome through UMA's optimistic oracle with token-weighted voting.

Original author: @0xJaehaerys Compiled by: LlamaC "Recommendation: This article mainly introduces how Zero-Knowledge Proofs (ZK-Proofs) create a new verifiable computing market worth billions of dollars, as well as the technical advantages, market positioning, and recent developments related to ecosystem data of the Succinct company and its native token $PROVE in this field. As a cutting-edge trend, its FDV has significantly appreciated. Please do your own research." Introduction This article by Uma Roy, co-founder of Succinct, marks a paradigm shift. It does not proclaim the birth of yet another token, but rather a data-driven new economy that is emerging in real-time: the verifiable computing economy. For years, zero-knowledge (ZK) technology has been seen as the theoretical endgame for blockchain scalability. Today,

TLDR; The on-chain prediction market is booming, and oracles represent the best infrastructure-related opportunity. As the core of the settlement mechanism, oracles determine what themes the prediction market can support and whether it can operate correctly and efficiently. Currently, the Polymarket oracle is dominated by UMA, supporting subjective prediction markets that account for 80% of the market size, while Chainlink is introduced to settle the remaining 20% of the price market. Pyth is introduced to solve the issue of Kalshi prediction market data on-chain, and other oracle solutions mainly focus on AI. As the only subjective settlement solution, UMA has established a good barrier in terms of product and operational experience. However, there are still issues such as long settlement times and manipulation by large holders, which essentially limit the ability of prediction markets like Polymarket to explore new types of markets. This leaves room for new solutions, including

UMA experienced a 16.4% spike to 50 THB before falling to 39.04 THB, suggesting volatility and profit-taking. Bitkub shows increased trading interest, driven by UMA's DeFi features, but high volatility necessitates careful risk management.

Due to the low probability of Polymarket coin issuance, the largest prediction market, this article selects six track projects, from Flipr in social communication to infrastructure UMA, analyzing their technology, business model, and token economy. (Synopsis: PolyMarket will set up a new prediction market and receive $15 million in seed funding from USV and Coinbase) (Background added: Paradigm conceives a new prediction market: you can bet without a counterpart? With Trump back in the White House, prediction markets are ushering in an unprecedented wave of mainstreaming. The latest big news: Polymarket, the world's largest prediction market, received tens of millions of dollars from the Donald Trump Jr. Venture Capital Fund, the son of a president who was not only the son of a president in 1789

UMA gained 7.2% in 24 hours and is currently trading at $1.51, holding firm above the $1.38 support level. Resistance at $1.60 remains the next critical test, with extended levels at $1.76 and $2.04 highlighted on the daily chart. Cross-performance shows strength, with UMA up 7.4% against

UMA simplifies synthetic asset creation with its Priceless Financial Contract Design and a dual-layer oracle system for secure, efficient dispute resolution. UMA 2.0 introduces staking, reward redistribution, and enhanced governance, strengthening oracle security and preparing the protocol for r

SoFi will bring cross-border payments to the Bitcoin Lightning Network infrastructure thanks to Lightspark technology and the UMA (Universal Money Address), promising rapid credits and visible costs before sending. The stated goal is to reduce friction in international remittances, raising the bar i

Tokens and coins that moved the most in the last 24 hours: ☀️ 9:00 – Morning Pulse: Market Attempts to Stabilize After Sharp Sell-Off – Top Movers of the Day Ultima and UMA: These cryptocurrencies have been the best performers over the past 24 hours. Aerodrome Finance has delivered the most

SoFi Bank has partnered with Lightspark to introduce the Bitcoin Lightning Network and UMA, announcing the official entry into a new era of cross-border remittances with second-level speeds and low fees. (Background: CryptoQuant analyst: Bitcoin returns to the 115,000 level, futures cool down! Waiting for The Federal Reserve (FED) to speak on Friday) (Background information: U.S. policy nuclear bomb proposal: Suggests Trump to "increase the position in Bitcoin" with tariffs from other countries to guarantee the greatness of the USA) U.S. digital bank SoFi announced on the 19th that it has teamed up with cryptocurrency payment infrastructure provider Lightspark to be the first to deeply integrate the Bitcoin Lightning Network and the universal currency address (UMA) into mainstream banking services, bringing a new vision to the global remittance market. According to the press release, this service will first launch on the SoFi App, targeting the cross-border remittance demand of up to $740.5 billion, and achieving second-level speeds with more.

American digital banking giant SoFi Technologies announced that it will become the first bank in the United States to integrate both Bitcoin (BTC) Lightning Network and Universal Money Address (UMA), ushering in a new era of cross-border remittances. This innovation will allow users in the United States, Mexico, and other countries to make instant remittances through the SoFi App, with costs below the national average and directly credited in the recipient's local currency. ## Cross-Border Payment Revolution: SoFi Takes the Lead in BTC Lightning Network SoFi announced in its latest announcement that it has partnered with Bitcoin payment infrastructure company Lightspark to launch a blockchain-based international remittance service, with the first station set to go live later this year in Mexico. SoFi CEO Anthony Noto stated that for members who need to regularly remit money to family overseas, low-cost and instant crediting is essential.

Polymarket is transitioning to a Managed Optimistic Oracle V2 (MOOV2) to enhance prediction market accuracy by allowing only whitelisted users to submit resolution proposals. This update addresses market manipulation and aims to improve efficiency by limiting inexperienced proposals, while still permitting community disputes.

> The original intention of the Oracle Machine is to accurately report the truth, but it was never designed to determine what the truth actually is. Written by: Aradtski Compiled by: AididiaoJP, Foresight News For prediction markets, the "Oracle Machine problem" is not really a problem at all; stop blaming UMA for it. This conclusion may seem somewhat counterintuitive. The "Oracle Machine problem" is one of the oldest problems in the crypto space; like all things, it can be traced back to the early bitcointalk forum. In discussions about prediction markets, this problem always occupies a central position: people expect the Oracle Machine to provide truth on-chain based on real-world outcomes, allowing on-chain financial programs to operate correctly. The Oracle Machine problem has never been simple, but it seems even more tricky for the prediction market.

A prediction market worth 10,000 USD on Polymarket for the NASCAR Cup Series race taking place on Sunday has surprisingly become one of the biggest controversies in UMA's history, after the platform's oracle rejected an early settlement proposal, despite it being accurate. According to user X named

The Polymarket prediction market has sparked user concerns about its Decentralization authenticity due to manipulation by the "UMA Whale" and controversies surrounding the outcomes of two high-stakes betting markets. Users accuse the platform of being superficially decentralized while being controlled by a small number of coin holders, leading to challenges in fairness. As accusations of monopolization increase and user losses mount, the market's trust in Polymarket is gradually deteriorating.

Author: Omer Goldberg Compiled by: Tim, PANews The controversy surrounding the Zelensky suit incident on Polymarket is not a system failure. This is a $200 million case that reveals a fundamental flaw in human-controlled oracles: when the cost of corruption is lower than the return, the truth becomes a commodity bought by the highest bidder. Zelensky's $200 million fashion show Imagine this: Zelensky walks into the NATO summit venue, dressed in an outfit that all major media are referring to as a suit. The prediction market's trading volume reaches 200 million dollars, and the outcome seems obvious. But the UMA oracle gave a "no" prediction on the question of whether Zelensky would wear a suit in July. It's not because he didn't wear a suit, nor is it because the evidence is insufficient. is

Members of the Polymarket community have expressed grave issues over a new oracle ruling that was passed using the UMA protocol. The verdict has cost a large prediction market ContentsControversy Surrounds Zelenskyy’s Suit MarketGovernance Concerns and Whale InfluenceCall for Oracle System

Altcoins USUAL, HFT, MANTA, HIVE, and UMA demonstrate robust technical setups and growing adoption despite broader market volatility. Bitcoin’s potential climb to $150K could unlock fresh liquidity, indirectly benefiting innovative and mid-tier altcoins in the short term. July presents a

Succinct CEO and Co-Founder Uma Roy discusses the state of crypto fundraising and app development. She speaks with Tim Stenovec and Sonali Basak on "Bloomberg Crypto." View Comments

Key Points: Kraken receives EU MiCA license for expanded operations. Strengthens market position with regulatory compliance. Expected increase in user trust and trading volumes. Kraken, uma das principais exchanges de criptomoedas, anunciou a aquisição da licença EU MiCA do Banco Central de

According to Mars Finance news on June 9, UMA briefly surpassed $1.4, currently quoted at $1.372, with a rise of over 14% in 24 hours.

A manipulation incident of the Oracle Machine on Polymarket has caused dissatisfaction in the community, with over $7 million in prize pool being misjudged, resulting in significant losses for many correct bettors, while the users who placed incorrect bets took away the prize pool funds. This incident exposed the vulnerabilities in Polymarket's judgment mechanism and raised questions about UMA's voting mechanism. (Background: Polymarket shocked by the "2025 Jesus' Second Coming" prediction market, with the community joking: Can the winnings be taken to heaven?) (Additional context: XRP jumped 10% after Ripple stated that the SEC is about to abandon its appeal, with Polymarket estimating an over 80% chance this year of the XRP Spot ETF being approved.) The prediction market Polymarket, which shone during the U.S. election, has faced the most severe Oracle Machine manipulation attack since its inception. This incident resulted in over 700

A controversy has emerged on Polymarket over a potentially manipulated outcome involving a UMA token holder in a Trump-Ukraine prediction market. Polymarket acknowledges the issue and plans to update rules and governance tools to prevent future incidents. The incident raises concerns about decentralized governance and oracle-based systems.

EigenLayer, Polymarket, and UMA collaborate to develop a next-generation oracle system improving blockchain-based data verification. EigenLayer provides a security framework for the new oracle aiming to enhance decentralized trust using EigenLayer and EIGEN token. The oracle's focus on peer-to-peer truth and compatibility with prediction markets drives the need for advanced oracle solutions like UMA's Optimistic Oracle used by Polymarket.

Grayscale recently released its industry report for Q1 2025. In the report, it not only mentioned that Ethereum's performance is falling behind Solana, but also pointed out that investors are increasingly following altcoins such as Sui and Ton. In addition, the top 20 coins listed by Grayscale have also changed, with the addition of coins such as HYPE, ENA, VIRTUAL, JUP, JTO, and GRASS. Meanwhile, old-timers such as Maker, the Decentralized Finance protocol, Korean legislator Jeong Eun-hee's Stacks, UMA, TON, NEAR, and CELO have been removed. Trump's election victory drives a strong fourth quarter Grayscale attributes much of the strong performance in the fourth quarter to the victory of Trump in the US presidential election. According to Grayscale's Cryptocurrency Industry Market Index (CSMI), the total market value of the industry increased from 1 trillion US dollars to 3

来源：Grayscale；编译：邓通，金色财经 * 现货比特币 ETF 在美国市场首次亮相，亮点包括高交易量和总计约 15 亿美元的净流入。 * 1 月，比特币和以太坊的估值几乎没有变化，而许多“山寨币”的价格则下跌。 仓位措施表明，在美国现货比特币 ETF 开始交易后，活跃交易者降低了风险。 * 与此同时，稳定币市值持续上升，市场关注加密货币和人工智能的协同效应，美联储表示尚未准备好开始降息。 距首次申请十多年后，现货比特币交易所交易基金（ETF）于 2024 年 1 月在美国首次亮相。比特币走向全球金融体系中心的旅程中经历了许多里程碑，包括第一家交易所、第一个衍生品产品，以及第一笔以比特币为抵押的贷款。 尽管这些事件可能会在日常对价格和交易量的关注中被忽视，但我们认为**新的比特币 ETF 的推出是新兴加密资产类别发展的又一重大步骤。** 这十种新产品的交易量表明了投资者对通过 ETF 结构获取比特币的广泛兴趣。 自 1 月 11 日推出以来，现货比特币 ETF 整体日均成交量达到 21 亿美元。 与所有在美国上市的 ETF 的典型交易量相比，新比特币产品自推出以来的成交量将排名第八，与提供美国股票和债券市场敞口的产品一起排名第八（图表 1）。 为了进行更多比较，自 1 月 11 日以来，最大的非加密商品 ETF ($GLD) 的日均交易量约为 11 亿美元，而最大的比特币期货 ETF ($BITO) 的日均交易量为 5.7 亿美元。期间。[1] 虽然拥有比特币的方式有很多，包括自我托管，但现货比特币 ETF 的成功推出表明，许多投资者和财务顾问可能会看重这种产品结构的流动性和便利性。 图表 1：现货比特币 ETF 交易量在大型股票和债券产品中排名  新产品的净流入在交易开始时飙升，并随着月份的进展趋于稳定。 **自 1 月 11 日以来，美国上市现货比特币 ETF 的净流入总额约为 14.6 亿美元**（图表 2）。 **这部分被海外加密货币交易所交易产品（ETP）（尤其是加拿大的比特币基金）的净流出所抵消，自 1 月 11 日以来所有产品的净流入总额约为 10.94 亿美元（1 月份全年净流入 12.85 亿美元）。** 图表 2：美国上市现货比特币 ETF 的净流入，其他地方的流出  从价格回报的角度来看，比特币和以太坊本月几乎没有变化，而许多其他代币（或“山寨币”）表现不佳。 [2] 根据富时灰度加密货币行业指数系列，消费和文化加密货币行业是五个行业中表现最差的行业，1 月份下跌了约 12%。 我们认为低市值代币的表现不佳与一些市场参与者风险偏好的下降是一致的。 图表 3：“山寨币”一月份表现不佳  尽管新的比特币 ETF 出现了健康的净流入，但活跃的交易者头寸可能在推出之前就已经过度扩张，导致 1 月份晚些时候出现回调。 例如，芝商所上市的比特币期货的未平仓合约在 1 月 11 日之前达到局部高点，但此后有所回落（图表 4）。 同样，在期权市场中，短期（例如 2 周）看涨期权的价格相对于短期看跌期权的价格上涨，这可能表明投资者对看涨杠杆结构的需求。 但与期货未平仓合约一样，看涨期权的溢价在下半月下降。[3] 实际上，**一旦 ETF 开始交易，一些市场参与者似乎已经做好了比特币价格大幅上涨的准备； 在第一天交易价格接近不变后，他们可能随后降低了风险。** 图表 4：现货比特币 ETF 推出前期货未平仓合约增加  公用事业和服务加密货币领域包括一月份表现最好和最差的一些代币。 例如，UMA (+105%) 和 ENS (+81%) 代币均大幅上涨。 [4] UMA 代币受益于 Oval 的发布，该项目专注于保护借贷协议免受最大可提取价值 (MEV) 的影响。 [5] 与此同时，世界币（WLD）也是公用事业和服务加密货币部门的组成部分，是表现最差的代币之一（-34%）。 [6] 对于 Worldcoin 来说，1 月份的疲软标志着 12 月份强劲表现的逆转，有报道称其正在进行一轮融资。 [7] **2023年，加密货币与人工智能（AI）技术之间的协同作用成为一个突出的主题，与人工智能相关的加密资产的表现优于所有加密货币行业。** 这个话题在一月份仍然是焦点，以太坊联合创始人 Vitalik Buterin 发表了他的观点。 Grayscale Research 认为，**公共区块链技术可以提供帮助缓解人工智能相关社会问题的潜力，包括深度造假的兴起和对数据隐私的担忧。 虽然这些领域之间的交叉仍处于萌芽阶段，但在 Akash 和 Render 等去中心化 GPU（图形处理单元）市场中可以看到早期进展的迹象。** 1 月份，该主题的资产表现差异很大，Bittensor (+71%) 和 Akash (+20%) 等资产表现优于市场，而 Render (-6%) 和 Fetch AI (-) 资产的表现与市场一致。 17%）和世界币（-34%），其表现明显逊于市场。[8] 尽管人工智能和其他主题经常抢尽风头，但**稳定币采用的稳步复苏仍然是另一个关键趋势。** 稳定币提供了一种在公共区块链上持有和转移美元（或其他法定货币）的方式，因此**我们预计稳定币的采用率不断上升可能会为区块链代币带来价值。** 1 月份稳定币总市值增长 50 亿美元，主要归功于 Tether 的增长（图表 5）。 事实上，Tether 的“主导地位”（其在稳定币市场中的份额）在本月上升至 71% 的新高。 [9] Tether 有多种用例，包括作为交易应用程序中持有的现金资产以及支付媒介。 金融服务公司 Cantor Fitzgerald 的首席执行官 Howard Lutnick 在 1 月中旬表示，他的公司管理着 Tether 的很大一部分资产，并指出稳定币保留着储备资产。 [10] 另外，USDC 稳定币发行人 Circle 申请了 IPO。 [11] 图表 5：Tether 推动稳定币采用的增长  **随着现货比特币 ETF 的推出，加密货币市场的焦点可能会重新转向宏观经济、政治情况和技术发展。** 周三（1月31日），美联储表示，虽然通胀风险已“更好平衡”，但尚未准备好开始降息。 **任何降低实际利率的货币政策变化都将对比特币的估值产生积极影响。 加密货币投资者也可能开始展望美国总统大选，其中对选民来说重要的各种问题与加密货币投资主题相交叉，候选人对资产类别的看法仍然占据主导地位。** Grayscale 通过与哈里斯民意调查合作，继续追踪加密货币在选举中的作用（有关详细信息，请参阅 2024 年选举：加密货币的作用）。 最后，**在技术方面，我们预计在 2 月底 ETH 丹佛会议和定于 4 月颁布的以太坊改进提案 (EIP) 4844 之前，人们将持续关注比特币减半以及有关以太坊扩容的争论。**[12] **参考文献：** [1] 资料来源：彭博社，截至 2024 年 1 月 31 日。 [2] 资料来源：彭博社。 回报率计算时间为2023年12月29日至2024年1月31日。 [3] 资料来源：Glassnode 数据，截至 2024 年 1 月 31 日。 [4] 资料来源：CoinGecko，截至 2024 年 1 月 31 日。 [5] 资料来源：The Block。 [6] 资料来源：CoinGecko，截至 2024 年 1 月 31 日。 [7] 资料来源：路透社。 [8] 资料来源：CoinGecko，截至 2024 年 1 月 31 日。 [9] 资料来源：DeFi Llama，灰度投资。 截至 2024 年 1 月 31 日。 [10] 资料来源：The Block。 [11] 资料来源：CNBC。 [12] 资料来源：Consensys。

作者：NotDegenAmy, Derek, yiwei 来源：Ocular 翻译：善欧巴，金色财经 ## 背景 如今，当人们想到智能时，首先想到的可能是 LLM 模型，即 GPT、Claude、Llama 等。 但实际上，市场本身可能是通用智能的最佳形式，因为它本质上是所有行为的综合体。人工智能本身就是根据大众产生的大量信息进行训练的。话虽如此，人工智能是被动的，它需要目标和指令（至少在我们进入真正的代理世界之前）。为了更好地利用和表达市场情报，我们需要一些能够捕捉人群不断变化的思想的东西，一些具有前瞻性的东西。 **进入预测市场**。预测市场是一个平台，参与者可以根据他们对未来事件潜在结果的信念买卖合约。这些事件可以是政治（例如选举结果）和经济（例如利率变化），也可以是娱乐和体育（例如比赛结果）。  这一概念并不新鲜——人们认为预测市场的早期形式早在500多年前就已存在，主要用于预测政治结果。 21 世纪初期，Intrade 和 Betfair 等预测市场开始崭露头角，尤其是在美国总统大选期间。然而，这些是中心化平台，通常受到地理限制、监管约束以及需要可信中介来管理资金和结算赌注的限制。这影响了它们的发展和扩张能力。 * 例如，Intrade 于2013年被迫关闭，美国商品交易期货委员会曾起诉Intrade，要求禁止美国人使用该网站，称其非法出售期货合约，这导致其用户数量急剧下降。 2010 年代后期，随着区块链技术的兴起，预测市场比以前更加强劲地重新浮出水面。这一次，平台利用区块链创建了去中心化和全球性的平台，与过去的中心化版本相比，这些平台具有以下几个优势：  然而，预测市场从未成为主流。直到今年。由于 2024 年美国总统大选，人们对这种新形式的市场情报重新产生了兴趣和关注。在本文中，我们将深入探讨 web3 预测市场的机制，具体涵盖 1) 预测市场的用例和当前格局；2) Polymarket 案例研究；以及 3) 未来趋势。 ## 1）用例和当前情况 除了为用户提供从他们对未来的看法/预测中获利的机会之外，预测市场还有其他用例，如下所述：  DeFiLlama 估计，目前 web3 预测市场的总锁定价值 (TVL) 约为1.4 亿美元。这低于选举前的 5.45 亿美元高点。 2024 年 10 月，所有预测市场的月总收入估计约为 75 万美元，按年计算约为 900 万美元。 该领域的主要参与者是Polymarket 、Azuro和Drift (BET) 。在这三家公司中，2024 年第三季度的总投注额增长了 550% 以上，达到31 亿美元，而 2024 年第二季度仅为 4.633 亿美元（见下图）。  *（来源：CoinGecko 和 ocularvc）* 2024 年 11 月，仅 Polymarket 上就有约290,000 名月活跃交易者，平台上新开设了 300,000 多个账户。根据Polymarket 的历史排行榜，Polymarket 上最活跃的交易者创造了 3.97 亿美元的交易量，而最赚钱的交易者则赚取了超过 2200 万美元。 ## 2a）Polymarket——案例研究 那么预测市场是如何运作的呢？这可以分为三个子类别，即其特征、收费模式和争议解决流程。由于 Polymarket 目前占主导地位，我们将参考其运营模式。 *特征* * **市场**- 通常与现实世界事件相关。Polymarket 拥有广泛的市场，从政治和加密货币到流行文化和天气结果，而其他人可能会选择专注于特定的领域，例如体育博彩。 * **结果**——可以是： + 多结果市场主要以二元结果为特征。有些市场有多种结果，但对于每个选项（例如候选人），这将是一个二元交易（见下面的例子）。交易的每一方都有一个概率/价格，事件发生后，正确结果的一部分可以兑换 1 美元，而错误结果的一部分价值为 0 美元。 + 二进制，例如某事件是否会发生“是”或“否”； + 多种结果，例如预测哪位候选人将赢得多候选人竞选或哪支球队将赢得锦标赛；或 + 连续，即预测一系列值的结果（例如股票价格或投票百分比）。  **赔率**- 市场的价格/赔率主要有两种决定方式： * 一是通过类似于股票市场的订单簿系统。参与者提交买卖订单；价格通过匹配这些订单来确定。 * 二是通过基于自动做市商 (AMM) 的系统。在这个系统中，每个买入和卖出都会被接受。价格是根据跟踪交易量的算法/数学公式自动确定和调整的。 + Polymarket 主要使用基于订单簿的系统。 + 市场刚建立时，最初没有股票，也没有预先确定的价格或赔率。那些有兴趣购买“是”或“否”股票的人可以按照他们愿意支付的价格下限价订单。 + 当“是”和“否”双方的出价均为 1.00 美元时，订单即“匹配”，并且该 1.00 美元将转换为 1 股“是”和 1 股“否”，分别归各自的买家所有。 + 例如，如果您下达 0.60 美元的“是”限价订单，当有人下达 0.40 美元的“否”订单时，该订单就会匹配。这将成为初始市场价格。 + 随后，Polymarket 上显示的价格是订单簿中买卖价差的中点——除非该价差超过 0.10 美元，在这种情况下使用最后交易的价格。 + 如下面的市场所示，37% 的概率/价格是 34¢ 买入价和 40¢ 卖出价之间的中点。如果买卖价差大于 10¢，则概率/价格显示为最后交易价格。  * **付款**- Polymarket 在 Polygon 区块链上运行，用户使用 USDC 下订单。Polymarket 最近还与 MoonPay 合作，允许用户使用法定货币购买 USDC。 * **订单**- Polymarket 提供市价、限价和 AMM 订单。但是，目前没有杠杆选项。下订单后，Polymarket 允许用户在市场描述的事件实际发生之前交易他们拥有的股票。 + 参照上面的例子，假设我们在 37% 的赔率下购买了以太坊“是”的股票，当时以太坊的价格达到 3,000 美元。如果我们下注后赔率上升，我们可以决定以更高的价格出售我们的股票，并在实际事件发生/截止日期到来之前锁定利润。当然，如果我们下注后赔率下降，也可以选择亏本出售股票。 **费用** 去中心化预测市场收取的费用主要有两种： * **交易费用**，即平台在每次执行交易时收取少量费用。 * **存款/取款费用**，即每次法定货币/加密货币进入或离开平台时收取少量费用。 Polymarket 目前*不*收取任何交易费。但是，他们会从获胜投注的净收益中收取 2% 的费用。Polymarket 不会将这笔费用作为收入，而是将其用于奖励流动性提供者（作为其流动性奖励计划的一部分）和支付 gas 费。Polymarket 也不收取任何存款/取款费用。 * 当被问及定价策略时，Polymarket 创始人 Shayne Coplan 在 2024 年 7 月表示：“我们现在专注于扩大市场并提供最佳的用户体验。我们稍后会专注于货币化。” **争议** 为了在事件结束后解决市场问题，平台通常依靠 1）**预言机**；和 2）**社区投票**。 * 在 Polymarket 的案例中，他们通过通用市场准入 (UMA) 的乐观预言机和数据验证机制 (DVM) 依赖这两种策略。下面是一个简化的图表来说明市场解决过程： ** ## 2b) 风险和限制 到目前为止，人们对 Polymarket 和整个预测市场作为市场情报来源的有效性持有不同看法。我们在下面概述了这些不同观点。  Ocular 认为，预测市场要作为情报来源需要满足三个条件： * **首先，当激励**、**能力**和**时机**三个因素相匹配时，预测市场才能发挥最佳作用。 + 关于激励：你调查的个人需要对某个问题有既得利益。这可能是因为它影响他们的日常生活；他们的其他投资；或者这是社交媒体上的热门话题，他们想参与其中。重点是，他们需要对这个问题有参与感/参与感，这样他们才能参与市场。 + 能力：公众需要掌握足够的信息来形成自己的观点。不能是太小众的话题，或者需要深厚技术知识的话题，因为在这种情况下，公众可能并不会变得更聪明，结果也很难令人信服。 + 关于时间：虽然市场可以即时启动，但你需要时间来收集公众的意见，并让市场对新信息做出反应。因此，这不适用于时间敏感的决策。 * 第二，需要有足够的流动性。最终，预测市场只有在真正能够利用群体智慧时才能发挥最佳作用。这意味着市场需要达到一定的规模，无论是参与的相关个人数量还是投注量，才能有意义和实用。 * 第三，它不应该孤立地使用。预测市场通常由公开信息驱动，例如新闻或社交媒体上提到的内容。其他人可能拥有私人数据来源，这些数据可能并未完全反映在交易中，因此寻找他们以获得不同的视角可能会有所帮助。 ## 3）未来趋势 **我们看到了预测市场用例扩展**的趋势： 预测市场可能适用于决策市场。用户投票决定“结果应该是什么”，而不是“结果会是什么”。预测市场虽然提供了有价值的见解，但更为被动。人们投票并等待结果揭晓，通常对结果影响不大。另一方面，决策市场则更为主动，更适用于治理。 *案例研究：MetaDAO ($META)* MetaDAO 是 2023 年 1 月成立的项目，由 Colosseum 和 Paradigm 投资。其核心产品是 Futarchy，其中提出治理提案进行投票，并同时启动 2 个有条件交易市场： * 当市场认为该提案将使代币的价值超过某个阈值时，他们可以抬高“通过”代币的价格。相反，他们会抬高“失败”代币的价格。 * 投票结束时，若 Pass 代币的 TWAP 价格高于 Fail 代币的 TWAP 价格 3%，则提案通过并实施；反之，提案失败，市场将恢复原状。 + 例如，提案可以是为公司聘请一位新 CEO。如果决策市场表明如果聘请 CEO，公司股票的价值将大幅上涨，那么提案将获得通过，CEO 将被聘用。 + 未来系统的总体思路如下所示：  Futarchy 是由经济学者 Robin Hanson 于 2000 年提出的。他提出 Futarchy 是一种将预测市场与传统投票系统相结合的治理模式。在 Futarchy 治理模式中，决策基于分散市场的预测。参与者不是直接对政策进行投票，而是对可衡量的目标（例如经济增长）进行投票。然后，预测市场会预测拟议的政策将如何影响这些目标。市场决定的预期实现最佳结果的政策将被实施。这种方法利用集体智慧和财务激励来指导决策。 **在以下场景中，Futarchy 优于 Polymarket 的二元投注模型**： 1. 决策是目标，而不仅仅是预测。 2. 必须考虑复杂、长期的影响。 3. 激励结构需要与社会或组织目标保持一致。 目前，MetaDAO 除了自己的 DAO 治理之外，还与六个项目合作进行决策。MetaDAO 在决策方面已显示出一些成功的早期迹象，从阻止鲸鱼以大幅折扣购买 $META，到将公司资源从持有者认为会分散注意力的新计划上转移开。  然而，MetaDAO 还处于起步阶段。MetaDAO 的模型有几个关键限制，能否大规模应用还有待观察： * **预言机**- 并非每个项目都有代币，并非每个决策结果都可以用指标精确衡量。相对较小的决策可能也很难判断对指标的影响。 * **流动性**- 用户和钱包的集中度可能导致结果出现偏差。用户体验也可能过于技术化，难以让更多人接受，这可能会限制投票者的数量。 * **适用性**- 有权势的人可能不想将决策权移交给市场。参与者也必须是知情的群体。我们如何确保用户根据公司的长期利益进行投票？ **除了 MetaDAO 之外，预测和决策市场也在不断发展和创新**： * **新市场**——今年，由于与奥运会和美国总统大选同时举行，预测市场引起了大量炒作和讨论。该行业面临的挑战是，即使在这些周期性事件结束后，仍要维持人们对预测市场的兴趣。平台可以考虑将业务扩展到季节性/一次性活动之外，并探索不同的消费者群体和类别，例如流行文化和社交媒体，以女性和青年参与者为目标。 * **高级预言机**- 要建立新市场，可能需要构建新的预言机来抓取和获取相关数据，为新市场定价。Overlay就是这样一个项目，它正在寻求为独特市场构建预言机，例如《反恐精英》皮肤和 AI 指数。 * **高效套利**- 许多平台使用基于订单簿的系统（即用户下达的买卖订单）来为市场定价。由于用户行为和整体流动性可能因市场和平台而异，因此平台内部和平台之间都存在套利机会。 + 下面以 10 月 28 日美国总统大选在 Polymarket 和 Kalshi 上的赔率为例。用户可以在 Polymarket 上购买一份卡马拉获胜的合约（赔率为 33%），在 Kalshi 上购买一份特朗普获胜的合约（赔率为 62%），总成本为 95 美分。鉴于这两个事件是相互排斥的，无论结果如何，用户都将获得 1 美元的赔付，从而产生 5% 的套利机会。   * 确保平台上没有重复或措辞相似的列表； + 将其他平台的赔率纳入其定价模型中；和/或 + 建立一个交易机器人来利用这样的机会并尽量减少跨平台的传播。 + 为了有效利用这些套利机会，平台可能希望： * **资本效率**- 目前，要在大多数平台上执行交易，用户需要手头有资本，并且交易一旦执行，资本就会被锁定在平台上。为了提高资本效率，平台可以考虑： + 引入杠杆产品，以便用户能够进行超额投注； + 允许使用有收益的稳定币/代币进行交易； + 将用户的头寸标记化并允许该代币在其他平台上交易；和/或 + 设计一个借贷协议，允许用户根据自己的头寸进行借贷。 * **反操纵**- 为了解决价格操纵问题，平台可以考虑设置投注限额或限制个人可以开设的账户数量。在流动性较差的小型市场中，使用交叉盘问也是有效的：例如，询问“你相信什么以及你认为别人相信什么”，然后比较结果。 * **人工智能参与**- 为了使解决过程（特别是针对简单市场）更加高效，平台可以考虑利用人工智能/大型语言模型来获取和验证解决市场所需的信息。人工智能代理也可以接受培训，以更有效地研究真相并参与未来的投票。 ## 结论 Ocular 正在密切关注预测市场领域及其发展。 如今，预测市场用于创造收入、对冲头寸、吸引社区参与以及衡量市场情绪。展望未来，它可以用于集体决策/治理以及更多有趣的领域： * 预测科学论文的可复制性； * 汇总私人信息（公司内部）； * 预测药物试验的成功； * 获取有关主观问题的估计（产品发布前测试）；以及 * 重塑新闻媒体——让记者和分析师参与其中。 尽管该行业存在需要解决的低效率/限制问题（例如流动性不一致，监管不确定性和预言机问题），但我们仍然对该行业的长期前景持乐观态度，尤其是与人工智能的重叠。

Previous Readings: "Vitalik on the Possible Future of Ethereum (Part 1): The Merge", "Vitalik on the Possible Future of Ethereum (Part 2): The Surge", "Vitalik on the Possible Future of Ethereum (Part 3): The Scourge" Special thanks to Justin Drake, Hsia-wei Wanp, Guillaume Ballet, Icinacio, Rosh Rudolf, Lev Soukhanoy Ryan Sean Adams and Uma Roy for their feedback and review. One of the most powerful features of blockchain is that anyone can run a Node on their own computer and verify the correctness of the blockchain. Even 9596

Original Title: "Possible futures of the Ethereum protocol, part 4: The Verge" Original author: Vitalik Buterin Original translation: Mensh, ChainCatcher Special thanks to Justin Drake, Hsia-wei Wanp, Guillaume Ballet, Icinacio, Rosh Rudolf, Lev Soukhanoy, Ryan Sean Adams, and Uma Roy for their feedback and review. One of the most powerful features of blockchain is that anyone can run a Node on their own computer and verify the correctness of the blockchain. Even 9596

Bulls have regained control of the markets as cryptos end the week on an uptick. This is seen from the 2.75% increase in the market cap in the last 24 hours to stand at $1.59T as of press time. The trading volume has also jumped by 7% in the last 24 hours to $51.9B globally. ORDI Price