1. The pause in QT is easy to understand; the repurchase interest rate is rising, and at the same time, reverse repos cannot hedge against balance sheet reduction. The combination of both leads to a pause. There is still a long way to go before the pause turns into point shaving.

2. The relationship between interest rate cuts and the market involves, on one hand, the magnitude of the cuts, and on the other, the pace of the cuts. The cuts in September and October are related to employment pressure; however, after the government shutdown, with data being unclear, there is naturally a motivation to pause and observe.

3. Even if there is a pause in between, the pace of interest rate cuts will not stop. The refinancing pressure remains significant. Additionally, the impact of tariffs on CPI has been overestimated, but the trend of a gradual slowdown in employment has not changed.

4. The probability of a rate cut in December has been suppressed, in other words, the short-term easing trade expectations based on improved liquidity have been constrained; however, the market will find new optimistic evidence, especially in the rise of infrastructure brought by investments.