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These past few days, I took some time to write the USD series outlook for the new year. Understanding the currency itself is at the core of understanding the modern financial system. The main points are:
1. Currently, all transactions are conducted in fiat currency or based on fiat equivalents (such as stablecoins).
2. The rise and fall of all assets, on a larger scale, are changes in the numerator. If the denominator used as currency changes, then the nominal value will fluctuate more intensely.
3. Any newly created currency will not flow evenly into the financial system. Newly created funds

NotebookLm's improvement in learning efficiency is revolutionary. The fundamental reason is that you can choose the data source as the starting point for analysis.
In human learning models, the biggest bottleneck is input quality. Once the input quality is locked in, your interaction with AI essentially becomes a significant improvement in the thinking environment, making it obvious that your efficiency will increase exponentially.

When it rises too much, you sell; when it falls too much, you buy. That's just the way it is.
The only thing you might need to overcome in the middle is that maybe your buying or selling is on a slope, but at the same time, one thing to be firm about is that the act of printing money is an unstoppable primal urge for the entire world.
The long-term upward slope of currency won't change.

Let’s briefly talk about a few points:
1. Why has Trump recently shown greater tolerance towards hawks? The midterm elections in 2026 cannot afford to fail. So why this tolerance at this time?
2. I think December will still be a time for interest rate cuts.
3. In the American industry, relying on AI? But AI is currently insensitive to interest rates. So in the possibility of stagflation, is lowering interest rates a more realistic path?
4. The weakening of employment will continue until 2026.

1. The pause in QT is easy to understand; the repurchase interest rate is rising, and at the same time, reverse repos cannot hedge against balance sheet reduction. The combination of both leads to a pause. There is still a long way to go before the pause turns into point shaving.
2. The relationship between interest rate cuts and the market involves, on one hand, the magnitude of the cuts, and on the other, the pace of the cuts. The cuts in September and October are related to employment pressure; however, after the government shutdown, with data being unclear, there is naturally a motivation

Who holds the purchasing power; the pricing of risks; the strength of the narrative consensus. Together, they determine the trend of gold.
The situation is: purchasing power is shifting east and expanding west; in terms of risk, the political factors of pricing are becoming increasingly adequate. In other words, when risks cannot be priced, gold is the best choice. The density of Consensus has been reinforced again by waves of increases.
Understanding gold means fully understanding the fiat currency system and which group ultimately holds the world's wealth.

1. After BlackRock's financial report was released, Morgan's view is that the rise in asset tokenization business could allow the stock price to rise at least 70%.
2. Powell spoke in the early morning about the expectations for pausing the balance sheet reduction, mainly still concerned about the occurrence of a repurchase crisis and the tail risks to liquidity, but this does not mean an immediate flood of funds.
Looking at the two together, you need to think further about where the funds will actually go?

It's been a month without updates, I've been too busy, I'll try to update a little every day. Let's chat a bit:
1. The situation facing the economy is that external sudden risks are diminishing optimistic expectations, including tariffs and trade conflicts. This will raise/enhance risk aversion.
2. Currency: The data provided by the interest rate swap indicates that the monetary easing path has not changed; however, the game process is complex.
3. Finance: As stated in previous views, the coming years will be a period dominated by finance.
Therefore, whether it is the US stock

Sora is really amazing, I played it for the whole afternoon.

The non-farm payroll has collapsed, almost exactly as I expected, from last year to now.