You are going to see this shared a lot.

There will be a very high number of accounts posting this like robots...

"1M MACD crossed bearish + multiple closes under 50SMA, every time that happened it means the cycle is over"

But it's not true.

I've been saying to you all for a long time now that our current market position in Bitcoin and in altcoins is more like 2019 than 2021.

In 2019 we never made new highs as a mid cycle top, because we did not have ETFs and government adoption.

But we are in a very similar macro/liquidity/business cycle position to where we were then.

And back then, we had 5 weekly closes under the 50SMA and a MACD bearish cross.

Bitcoin then went on to push 10x to new highs.

However, there are a few key differences we need to note.

1. In 2019 The FED overdid their QT and cracked the reserves, which led to the repo crisis and the creation of the SRF. This time, things are not as stressed as that.

2. Shortly after this, COVID came along and black swanned the fuck out of the chart.

What we can see is that If it hadn't of been for COVID, the 2019 chart would have bottomed around the time of its multiple closes below the 50SMA. After the closes below, the next month had a strong close above.

Now it is also important to mention that no two periods will ever be the same chart wise/macro wise.

This post is more to show you that there infact has been a period of time where we have had the SMA and MACD bearish close, and it has not meant the start of a prolonged bear market.

It is not the 4 year cycle as such that matters here...

It is the liquidity cycle.

And that is what we must pay attention to.