Market Quick Review: #BTC

1F, the current trend structure is full, forming a aAbBc structure for a downtrend, in a pullback after a trend divergence. Currently, the pullback attacks near the upper track of the B central axis, with a neutral strength, not continuing a strong short structure. Therefore, it is time to consider taking profits on all short positions. There are two methods for taking profits: 1. The upper track of the central axis is a passive take profit line. 2. A second retest breaking the previous low indicates divergence and a non-break of the previous low indicates a second buy, which is an active take profit. 3. A non-divergent decline creating a C central axis, do not close positions, maintain holdings. (Lowest probability)

I personally suggest that you should close your position at the third buying point of the upward breakout of the bullish emergence on the right side of the second-level chart.

Why is the level here so small?

The trend is accelerating, and your observation of the trend should also adjust in frequency; everything should be based on the market rhythm rather than your subjective price expectations.

The 5F is not at a technical buying point in the divergence section, so why close the position?

The 1F structure is very solid, and the profit potential is already substantial. The height of this trend is approximately 8%, and making a 6% profit is not difficult at all. This is already a significant space in short-term trading. Using the large unrealized gains generated to bet on the future extension of divergence is not very cost-effective.

In professional terms, this is called EV thinking, which refers to expected value thinking. If you don’t understand, ask GPT. For example, in the current market situation, you have to consider the marginal effect of short positions. We use the Chande structure to trade, but we cannot be trapped in the structure because the market is vibrant and dynamic. It cannot be analyzed with a single standard static thinking; otherwise, it becomes dogmatic.

From the perspective of trading results, the biggest failure is not the stop-loss, but rather having generated huge profits only to turn them into losses due to greed and delusions, ultimately getting stuck. This behavior is the most foolish in trading. Of course, I have made this foolish mistake countless times, which is why I need to improve my skills, to have the ability to sell high and then buy back, avoiding all possible pullbacks. This is the right path.