#经济不确定性与通胀 At the end of the year, when liquidity hits the bottom, it is often the easiest time for problems to occur. The data from the past two weeks makes it clear — BTC has fluctuated sharply between 88,000 and 92,000, and retail investor sentiment has returned to bear market levels, with the open interest in perpetual futures dropping by 40-50% compared to October. Many people see this kind of fluctuation and want to buy the dip, but I must remind you: what does a small liquidation size mean? It means that large investors have already left, and what remains is basically retail investors stepping on each other.

The most notable thing is that the supply side is clearly tightening—25,000 BTC were withdrawn from exchanges, long-term funds are quietly accumulating, while retail investors are leaving in large numbers. This is a very dangerous signal combination, indicating that short-term fluctuations are likely to be exploited by long-term funds to harvest those with unstable emotions.

The Federal Reserve meeting on Wednesday is a key point, but don't be misled by market consensus. A 25bp interest rate cut is already expected; what really determines the direction is the guidance on the balance sheet. At a time of the worst liquidity and with holidays approaching, any breakthrough on either side could trigger a chain reaction. My advice is simple: this is not a good time to buy the dip, but rather a time to validate your risk tolerance. If your position can withstand fluctuations between 84,000 and 100,000 without causing you to lose your composure, then you are a true value investor. Otherwise, it's best to wait for liquidity to recover before making any decisions.