#美联储降息 The Fed's rate cut has been fully priced in, and JPMorgan says US stocks are due for profit-taking. Does that sound familiar? I believed the same ten years ago.
The problem is, this time of year at the end of the year has always been the easiest time to get cut. Christmas, the settlement period approaching, market liquidity is terrible, options positions exceeding 50%, BTC pressed at the 100,000 mark, ETH stuck at 3200— isn’t this a classic lock-up trap? Institutions have long calculated this.
I’ve seen too many people take over in the story of the "profit-taking wave." On the surface,

#稳定币发展 Seeing Airwallex's latest round of financing, I have to say a few honest words. An $8 billion valuation with a 30% rise in financing looks impressive on the surface, but looking closely at their moves—forming a stablecoin platform team. This is interesting.
The financing in the payment track is indeed hot, but don't be blinded by valuation figures. I've seen too many projects where the more rounds of financing and the higher the valuations, the greater the risk. This is especially true for stablecoins; in the past two years, how many projects have used the banner of stablec

#稳定币发展 Seeing Airwallex's recent financing, I have to say a few heartfelt words. An $8 billion valuation and $330 million in financing sound impressive, but the key is that they are building a stablecoin platform team. This is the node I want to remind everyone of—whenever large-scale financing and new track combinations appear, it often means that a new round of "opportunity traps" is brewing.
The payment sector is indeed booming, but the stablecoin space is fraught with pitfalls. In recent years, how many projects have used stablecoins as a guise, promising high returns and low risks, o

#美联储降息 Seeing the Fed's forecast of only planning to cut rates by 50 basis points in 2026, I have to say something honest - this is a wake-up call for the crypto world's "rate cut frenzy" fantasy.
Do you remember the rhetoric from last year about "the interest rate cuts are here, the bull market is starting"? I have seen quite a few people get badly hurt because of that expectation. Now the market has finally come to realize the reality: the rate cuts are far lower than expected, and even when the new Fed chair took office, the actual interest rate was still close to zero. What does t

#劳动力市场 Seeing the U.S. labor cost growth drop to a four-year low, alarm bells started ringing in my head. On the surface, this is good for easing inflation, the Fed can continue to cut interest rates, and asset prices will be pushed up— but the problem lies precisely here.
What lies behind the decline in labor costs? Slowing hiring, record layoffs, and young employees being forced to accept pay cuts. This is not a signal of a healthy economy; it is the cold reality of the job market. Strangely, inflationary pressures have not truly dissipated, prices remain firm, yet within the Fed, there is

#稳定币发展 Seeing Stripe's recent actions, I have to say a few heartfelt words. The acquisition of the Valora team to expand the stablecoin business is, on the surface, a signal that big institutions are optimistic about the sector, but it's also the most misleading narrative I've seen that can easily lead people to pitfalls.
Stablecoins are indeed a good direction, but the problem is — every time big capital enters the market, retail investors are most likely to fall into two cognitive traps. The first is FOMO, where seeing top institutions like Stripe and Paradigm teaming up on the

#代币空投 I have to say a few words about the public sale of CoinList's Rainbow. An FDV of 100 million, full unlocking at TGE, starting purchase at 100 dollars, and a 33% discount—I've seen this trap too many times.
It's not that CoinList is unreliable; the platform itself is fine. The problem lies with the traps of public sales like this. The FDV is inflated, but the discount is attractive, sounding like a bargain. In reality, what does full unlocking mean? While liquidity is sufficient, it also means tremendous sell-off pressure. I suffered losses on such "fully unlocked" projects i

#加密钱包 Seeing the news about Stripe's acquisition of the Valora team and Xiaomi pre-installing the Sei Wallet, I have to admit that I feel a bit complicated inside.
On the surface, this all seems like good news—big companies are entering the market, payment systems are improving, and compliance is advancing. However, those who have experienced several bear markets understand that this kind of "mainstream integration" story can easily mislead people. I want to remind you of a few common pitfalls:
Firstly, the fact that Valora's core technology was not sought after during the acquisition

#现货比特币ETF This data is quite interesting. The retail investor buying has really bottomed out, what does this indicate? It indicates that many people have started to calm down.
I still remember those years, whenever Bitcoin fluctuated, retail investors would follow the trend and chase the ups and downs, resulting mostly in being harvested. This time is different, the US stock market has seen double-digit gains this year, while Bitcoin is still in the red, but retail investors have not gone on a buying spree — this is actually a manifestation of rational return.
Interestingly, the attention has

#美联储降息 The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points, marking the third time this year. It looks very favourable information, but I must remind everyone: don't be blinded by this news.
"Powell's internal 'do-or-die' struggle is key – among the 12 voting members, 5 opposed, and among the 19 members, 10 said they see no necessity for rate cuts. This is not a minor disagreement; it is the largest internal division within the Fed in recent years.
What's even more heartbreaking is that Powell may have to hold back on further interest rate cut signals to appease the "hawks". The

#Binance Alpha空投 Is another wave of Airdrop fever coming? Binance Alpha has consecutively launched RaveDAO and Talus Network, and the hype is indeed not diminishing. But I have to be honest—I'm becoming more cautious about Airdrops from these types of Alpha projects.
Having experienced too many projects from the glory of the Airdrop period to the plunge after going live, the pattern is basically the same: first attract attention with the Airdrop, create a sense of participation and FOMO, and then at the moment trading opens, large investors dump, and retail investors take the hit. I'v

#预测市场 After looking at the recent bets related to Trump on Polymarket, I can't help but want to remind everyone: this is the trap scene I am most cautious about.
First, let's talk about the market for the UFO document—on the surface, it looks like one person is low buying and pushing the price up, but the truly frightening part is the six accounts behind it. These new accounts appeared simultaneously, swept the bottom simultaneously, and their position sizes are ridiculously consistent. This is not a coincidence; it's organized information arbitrage. They created a "smoke bomb" ef

#美联储降息 My first reaction upon seeing this Bitfinex report is: don't be blinded by the term interest rate cut.
On the surface, interest rate cuts are favorable, supporting assets and sounding good. But the data behind it reveals the truth – the unemployment rate has hit a three-year high, consumer credit card debt has surpassed $1.2 trillion, and the average interest rate is over 20%. What does this indicate? It indicates that the underlying logic of the market has already deteriorated.
I have experienced too many situations like this. When the central bank starts lowering interest rates,

#美联储利率政策 The Fed is almost certain to cut rates tonight, but the key is not whether they will or not, but how Powell explains it and how big the voting disagreements are. After reviewing these pieces of information, I feel apprehensive.
A 87.6% probability of a rate cut sounds stable, but did you notice that among the 12 voting members of the FOMC, 5 oppose or are skeptical about further easing, while 3 members support the rate cut? This kind of division hasn't occurred since 2019 and has only happened 9 times since 1990. What does this indicate? It indicates that the Fed is already torn

#美联储政策分析 Tonight, the Fed's interest rate cut is basically a done deal, with a probability of 87.6% on the table. But to be honest, what really makes me alert is not the 25 basis points, but the 5 dissenting votes within the committee - a rare situation since 1990.
Those who have experienced several rounds of bull and bear markets understand that divergences in monetary policy often appear before market turning points. What does it indicate when there is mutual restraint among decision-makers? It means that uncertainty regarding the economic outlook is rising. The "political" divergences

#Midnight代币空投 Seeing the Midnight Airdrop, I need to calm down and do some calculations. 600 NIGHT at the current price of 15 dollars doesn't sound very attractive, but the key is to look at the coin itself.
A new coin with a market value of 450 million, airdrops are usually a marketing tactic employed by the project team. My experience tells me that things that come for free are often the most expensive—because you will be forced to research it, pay attention to it, and even develop a holding mentality. This is exactly what the manipulators want: to increase the number of holders and the

#比特币价格分析 I wasn't too surprised to see Standard Chartered cut its Bitcoin year-end target from 200,000 to 100,000. I've seen this routine too many times — institutions first blow up a sky-high expectation to create fear of missing out (FOMO), and when retail investors follow the trend and buy in, they start adjusting the target when the market performance falls short of expectations. Essentially, they are still testing the market's ability to catch a falling knife.
The key is the reasons they provided - the demand outlook is fading and the pace of ETF institutional adoption is slo

#Polymarket预测市场 In three days, the probability of Bitcoin breaking through $100,000 fell from 33% to 30%, then rebounded to 40%—watching these numbers fluctuate on Polymarket, I suddenly remembered my days in gold farming games.
It was the same back then, staring at the data fluctuations every day, as if I understood the future trends. But the key question arises: can the probabilities from these prediction markets really guide decision-making?
To be honest, I am currently cautious about these types of prediction tools. There is nothing wrong with the data itself, but there are several traps