#美联储降息 The key highlights of the Fed's December interest rate meeting are already quite clear: a 25bp rate cut is basically a done deal (CME probability 87.6%), but the real variable lies in how Powell handles the internal political differences.

Data analysis reveals several key signals worth paying attention to:

**Degree of Policy Division Reaches New High in Recent Years** — At least 5 of the 12 voting members of the FOMC publicly oppose or question further interest rate cuts, a level of disagreement that has only occurred 9 times since 1990. In other words, Powell is facing rare internal resistance in pushing for interest rate cuts in the last few months of his term.

**The divergence in interpreting employment data is the core contradiction** — The rise in the unemployment rate to 4.4% supports the logic for interest rate cuts, but the downward revision of non-farm data and the slowdown in job growth raise the question of whether it reflects weak demand or supply contraction, leading to differing judgments within the committee. This ambiguity provides ample justification for the opposition.

**The expansion of the balance sheet may become a new point of liquidity injection** — The market expects the Fed to announce the purchase of short-term government bonds at a rate of $45 billion per month starting in January. This is equivalent to indirectly releasing liquidity and could be another avenue to alleviate market concerns.

From an on-chain perspective, this policy uncertainty typically increases the attractiveness of volatile assets. It is advisable to pay attention to the changes in large capital inflows into the derivatives market and the flow of stablecoins—usually, before a policy turning point, whales will preemptively position themselves for hedging or speculative positions.