#美联储降息 The probability of the Federal Reserve pausing rate cuts in January has increased from 70% to 78%, and this signal is worth noting. The rise in probability reflects a market re-pricing of inflation stickiness and also suggests that the liquidity environment may be tighter than expected.

From an on-chain perspective, such macro expectations changes usually leave traces in capital flows. Large holders tend to adjust their positions in advance of policy shifts—either exiting early to lock in profits or hedging their positions. Over the past two weeks, it is particularly important to monitor the ETH and BTC transfer movements of whale wallets, especially the volume flowing to exchanges. If clear signs of concentrated exits appear, this will reflect the market’s true expectations earlier than news releases.

Additionally, pay attention to the pace of stablecoin inflows and outflows. The failure of rate cut expectations often triggers revaluation of risk assets, with funds possibly flowing from the crypto market to traditional assets for safe-haven purposes. The distribution of liquidation of futures positions is also worth watching, as these data can more directly reflect market participants’ real bets on interest rate prospects.

Before the FOMC decision is announced, the data will be more meaningful for reference.