#劳动力市场 Labor costs in the United States have slowed to 3.5%, hitting a four-year low—this signal is worth following.
On the surface, this seems to be good news for alleviating inflation. However, what deserves more caution is the underlying logic: the number of job postings is declining, layoffs have risen to the highest level since early 2023, and the voluntary resignation rate has fallen to the lowest since 2020. The labor market is clearly cooling, but price pressures remain strong—this is a precursor to stagflation.
The Federal Reserve is already internally divided. After three consecutiv

#代币空投 Midnight(NIGHT) Airdrop has reopened after some twists and turns, and it's interesting to observe the on-chain movements.
From the timeline, it was originally scheduled to start at 17:00 → delayed → reopened at 17:30. This type of technical delay is common in large Airdrops and usually reflects system capacity testing or risk control adjustments. The core data points are the 230 Alpha points threshold and the airdrop quota of 600 NIGHT — this setup clearly defines the participant profile and serves as precise incentives for existing users.
What truly deserves attention is the subseq

#美联储政策 The Fed's dot plot has just been released, and the data speaks volumes. Among the 19 officials, 7 advocate for no interest rate cuts in 2026, which is a significant proportion. The median expectation is only a cumulative rate cut of 25 basis points, while the more aggressive faction (advocating for 75-150 basis points) only has 4 members.
The key point is that the hawkish signal conveyed this time is not only reflected in the dissenting votes of the two committee members, but the dot plot itself shows that the threshold for interest rate cuts has been raised. In other words, the ma

#比特币价格 Bernstein's report has several data points worth following. Bitcoin pulled back 30% but ETF outflows were less than 5%, which indicates that institutional funds are indeed positioning themselves against the trend, and the narrative of retail investors' panic has been contradicted by the data.
I am cautious about the judgment that the four-year cycle has been broken, but the logic of an extended bull market cycle is valid — factors such as ample institutional liquidity, a shift in policy expectations, and support from mining costs all point in this direction. The key question is

#美联储降息 The core logic of the Fed's meeting this time is already very clear - the adjustment phase of the interest rate cut cycle is coming to an end.
Focus on three signals:
**The hawkishness of the dot plot exceeds that of the dissenting votes**. Six members expect that interest rates should not be lowered this time, which is a stronger signal than the two public dissenters. In other words, the market's expectations for interest rate cuts next year are still too optimistic.
**Powell will emphasize a higher threshold**. From the adjustments in the wording of the statement to the remar

#美联储利率政策 The focus of the Fed this week has shifted from interest rate cuts to balance sheet expansion. Looking closely at this meeting, the 25bp rate cut has become a side dish, while the real main course is the direction of the balance sheet — the Fed plans to launch the Reserve Management Purchase program (RMP) starting in January next year, investing $35-45 billion per month to purchase short-term Treasury bills.
The key lies in the liquidity aspect. The tapering officially ended on December 1, and bank reserves have fallen to levels seen during periods of historical financing stress. SOF

#经济数据指标 The expectation of interest rate cuts has been fully reflected in stock prices, which is the core judgment given by the JPMorgan team. Looking at the current situation, the US stock market has returned to historical highs, and institutional investors generally tend to lock in profits before the end of the year. What does this mean? There is indeed pressure to take profits in the short term.
But from the perspective of the blockchain, it is more interesting—large capital movements often manifest ahead of macro data. If we really need to enter a consolidation zone, we should pay attenti

#美联储政策分析 Powell's recent move is indeed a bit suspenseful. At the December monetary policy meeting, half of the officials opposed a rate cut, which is rare in recent years. The key is whether he can balance the divergence through a moderate 25bp cut and a modification of the forward guidance—satisfying the expectation for a rate cut while leaving room for future rate hikes.
However, from a data perspective, the reasons for opposition this time are interesting: the employment data itself is contradictory—growth exceeded expectations but the unemployment rate rebounded to 4.4%. The core iss

#美联储货币政策 The highlight of the Fed's December decision is not actually the 25bp rate cut, but the signal of balance sheet expansion. The tapering officially ended on December 1, and bank reserves have fallen to the level of financing stress, with the SOFR periodically testing the upper limit of the policy interest rate corridor — systemic liquidity pressures continue to be released.
The core highlight is the advancement of the RMP plan. According to Evercore's forecast, it will start as early as January 2026, with monthly purchases of Treasury bills around $35 billion and an annual bal

#空投与代币分配 Midnight(NIGHT) Airdrop reopens, with a threshold of 230 Alpha points and an approximate single return of 15 dollars. It may not seem significant, but the real value of such activities lies in the reflection of capital flow and market sentiment.
Several points worth noting: First, the project with a price of $0.025 and a market cap of 450 million is launching on Binance Alpha, indicating that the project team has made ample cold start preparations; secondly, the mechanism of automatically lowering the threshold by 10 points every 5 minutes is a typical time-pressure marketing strateg

#比特币价格分析 $80,000 at this level is indeed worth paying attention to. From on-chain data, the recent activity of whale wallets in this price range has indeed increased, with a noticeable frequency of large transfers and inflows to exchanges showing clear testing characteristics. In the volatile environment of December, this key psychological level of $80,000 is likely to be tested again.
The problem is that relying solely on KOL's intuitive judgment is not sufficient. It is necessary to cross-validate with the recent on-chain contract position distribution, futures funding rates, and the la

#预测市场平台与套利 The prediction market has indeed become the focus this year. From on-chain data, the flow of funds is already very clear. Platforms like Polymarket are seeing a continuous increase in volume, and large wallets have begun to position themselves in related tokens by the end of 2024, indicating that institutions have long sensed this direction.
The key observation point is the changes in the payment layer of stablecoins—the liquidity paths of USDC and USDT indicate that the pull of real application scenarios has already emerged. The prediction market is different from previous specula

#美国经济与货币政策 The Fed's interest rate cut this week is basically locked in (87.6% probability), but the real highlight of this meeting is not the rate cut itself.
There are three key signals:
**1. Balance Sheet Expansion Expectations** — Bank of America expects the Fed to announce monthly purchases of $45 billion in short-term government bonds starting in January. Whether the balance sheet can be smoothly expanded after the cessation of the reduction directly determines the direction of liquidity supply, and its impact on on-chain capital should be continuously monitored.
**2. Increasing Vot

#稳定币风险与合规 The public test launch of Tempo is worth following, but the core logic still depends on the on-chain capital flow of stablecoin payments.
The combination of Stripe and Paradigm is indeed imaginative—the fixed transaction cost model of 0.1 cents breaks the pain point of the traditional on-chain congestion cost's random fluctuations. However, from the perspective of on-chain signals, the key is to observe the subsequent real transaction volume and capital accumulation. The entry of traditional financial institutions like UBS and Cross River Bank indicates that the compliance pathw

#银行接入加密服务 The OCC's interpretive letter 1188 has sent a clear signal - US regulators are paving the way for banks to engage in encryption transactions. The key lies in the definition of "risk-free principal": banks act as middlemen rather than Holdings, and this structured design drops the risk exposure of Financial Institutions, creating a legal basis for Compliance entry.
The partnership between PNC Bank and Coinbase is worth paying attention to. It is the first among the top five banks in the United States to launch BTC trading, reflecting the real existence of high-net-worth client de

#钱包社交转型 The shift of Farcaster from social media to Wallet essentially reflects a fact that has been rigorously validated by data: the market cap of Web3 social is far lower than imagined.
The data speaks for itself. By mid-2024, the MAU peaked at nearly 80,000, but by the second half of 2025, it had dropped to less than 20,000—this isn’t volatility, it’s a trend. The real heart-wrenching comparison comes from Wiimee's experiment: the exposure of content for a general audience over four days surpassed that of four years of content in the crypto circle by two times. What does this indicate

#隐私技术解决方案 Zama's sealed bidding Dutch auction model is indeed interesting—using FHE to keep the number of bids confidential, it technically avoids the issues of front running and gas wars. The floor price of $0.005 corresponds to a FDV of 55 million, which is considered a reasonable level in the privacy computing track.
There are three core highlights: First, the token distribution logic under the background of $130 million financing is relatively transparent, with 10% public sale, of which 8% is auctioned and 2% at a fixed price, making the structure clear; Second, full unlocking means t

#加密货币抵押品应用 The significance of OCC's letter No. 1188 lies in clarifying the legal boundaries for banks participating in encryption asset trading. The risk-free principal model essentially positions banks as intermediaries—hedging clients' trades without holdings, which drops balance sheet risk.
From an on-chain perspective, this policy confirms that the impact of institutional capital entering the market is indirect but profound. Once banks, as traditional financial institutions, receive clear authorization, they will become new liquidity providers, potentially altering the current fl

#比特币市场动态 Bitcoin is competing for the 80,000 mark at the end of the year, and the logic behind the adjustments in institutional target prices is worth clarifying.
Standard Chartered Bank has lowered its target from $200,000 to $100,000 (with the target time changed to the end of 2025), primarily due to the adoption rate of institutional ETFs being lower than expected. This signal is critical—it indicates that the FOMO driven by retail investors is no longer sufficient to support high expectations, and true institutional inflow is needed to take over.
In line with Ansem's December 80,000 t

#比特币市场周期与价格 The BTC balance on the trading platform has fallen to 2.936 million coins, setting a new low for the cycle. This signal is worth following. Compared to history, the last time it reached this level was after the FTX collapse in December 2022, and the market subsequently entered a recovery phase.
From a structural perspective, the current balance decline is mainly due to whales continuously withdrawing funds on-chain—behaviors from large holders with positions exceeding 1 million and 10 million USD are consistent, as they are making on-chain reserves rather than seeking to sell. In