#美联储降息政策 Seeing the Fed's recent moves, what comes to mind is that period in 2015. Back then, the expectation of balance sheet reduction was suffocating everyone, causing many projects to fail amid policy uncertainties. Now, the situation has reversed—from balance sheet reduction to net injections, with $40 billion in Treasury reserve management purchases. I am all too familiar with the logic behind this.

This is nothing new; essentially, it's just a rebranding of easing policies. The term "hidden QE" sounds gentle, but its power is significant. The key point is the timeline: reserve growth could continue until April 2026, coupled with two more rate cuts as market expectations suggest. What does this mean? Liquidity conditions will become increasingly relaxed, rather than the continued tightening we previously feared.

History shows that such policy shifts often signal a market turning point. After 2008 and during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, the same was true—once central banks loosen, funds will find a way out, and the crypto market, as a high-risk asset class, usually benefits from liquidity overflow. I have experienced several cycles like this; each time, the policy environment shifting from tight to loose is when the real opportunity window opens.

However, there's a detail worth considering: a moderate policy environment is good, but moderation also means no extreme stimulation. This won't be a rocket-like surge like in 2020, but rather a relatively steady support. For long-term investors, such an environment is actually healthier—policy support is there, but expectations won't overinflate.