2026-01-09 14:22:14

The latest data from the U.S. Department of Labor shows that the unemployment rate in December was 4.4%, lower than the expected 4.5%, and it continued to decline from 4.6% month-over-month. This number indicates one thing: the U.S. job market is still quite strong, with no obvious signs of cooling.

The unemployment rate has remained at historically low levels, reflecting that the resilience of the U.S. economy is still pretty good. It is precisely because of this strength that the Federal Reserve has more room to observe when making policy decisions. But the question is—inflation has not yet stabilized back to the 2% target. Against this backdrop, the performance of the job market actually weakens the Fed’s urgency to cut interest rates.

Previously, the market was optimistic about a rate cut in March, but this data might break those expectations. We estimate that the Federal Reserve will most likely remain patient at the January FOMC meeting, keep interest rates unchanged, and wait for more economic data to confirm whether inflation is really easing. The uncertainty around interest rate policies will still be a challenge for a while for BTC and the entire crypto market.

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GasWrangler

· 01-11 19:10

tbh the employment data actually proves my point—strong labor market means fed's got zero urgency to cut rates, which is mathematically superior for analyzing btc volatility. if you analyze the mempool properly, sideways rate policy = extended consolidation phase. people who think march cuts are happening are demonstrably off on their transaction fee modeling.

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TommyTeacher1

· 01-10 04:09

With employment data so strong, the Federal Reserve will definitely have to hold steady. The dream of a rate cut in March should wake up.

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FloorPriceNightmare

· 01-09 14:50

With employment data so strong, a short-term interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve is unlikely... We still have to wait a bit longer.

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NftDeepBreather

· 01-09 14:50

Coming again with the wolf? Good employment data and the rate cut dream shatters—The Federal Reserve really knows how to play. --- I told you, as long as inflation isn't soft, don't expect the Federal Reserve to loosen, BTC still has to wait. --- Lower unemployment rate isn't necessarily good news for the crypto circle... Interest rate policies are really unpredictable. --- Cutting rates in March? Wake up, looking at this data, the Federal Reserve isn't in a hurry at all. --- Strong employment = The Federal Reserve continues to hold firm on interest rates, crypto enthusiasts need to keep fighting. --- Inflation still hasn't obediently returned to 2%, why would the Federal Reserve soften and cut rates? --- The market is so optimistic about a rate cut in March, but now this data slapped it in the face. --- So, a good macroeconomic data doesn't necessarily mean good news for crypto prices; it depends on what the Federal Reserve thinks. --- With interest rate policies so uncertain, we'll just keep waiting... Anyway, we're used to waiting in the crypto world. --- Low unemployment and high inflation, the Federal Reserve is wavering, and the crypto circle finds this situation most annoying.

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MetaLord420