#比特币走势分析 Reasons for Recent Bitcoin Trends and 3-6 Month Outlook

Bitcoin fell to approximately $88,959 on Friday, with a weekly decline of nearly 7%. Veteran trader Peter Brandt warned that this cryptocurrency could plummet to $58,000–$62,000, representing a drop of 33–37%.
• Economist Peter Schiff attributed Bitcoin's weakness to Wall Street institutional adoption, noting that since November 2021, Bitcoin has fallen over 50% relative to gold, while silver has surged above $98, approaching $100.
• The Fear & Greed Index dropped to 20(“Extreme Fear”), with analysts emphasizing that the support level at $88,000–$89,000 is crucial—closing below this level on the daily chart could trigger a decline toward $80,401.
The recent decline in Bitcoin is mainly driven by macroeconomic concerns, geopolitical risks, ETF capital outflows, and a drying up of capital inflows. Additionally, large-scale selling by long-term holders (OG holders) near $100,000, combined with potential Federal Reserve rate hikes and rising inflation expectations, has further intensified market pressure.

Detailed Reasons for the Decline
• Macroeconomic Factors: Global inflation fears and rising interest rate expectations have prompted investors to shift toward safe assets like bonds, with Bitcoin, as a high-risk asset, bearing the brunt.
• Capital Flows: Significant outflows from Bitcoin ETFs, stagnating capital inflows, and soaring gold and silver prices have attracted safe-haven funds.
• Technical and Market Sentiment: Failed breakouts, death cross signals, and the extreme fear index (Fear & Greed Index dropping to 20) have triggered over $1.5 billion in leveraged liquidations.

3-6 Month Outlook
Analysts have divergent views. The bearish camp believes Bitcoin could further correct to the $56,000–$70,000 range, with a potential test of $70,000 if support at $88,000 is broken. The bullish camp expects a rebound to $143,000–$225,000 amid Federal Reserve rate cuts and improved regulation, with sideways trading possible in Q1.

What are your thoughts on the upcoming market trend? Share your views in the comments!