ShizukaKazu

#Strategy低位加仓1550枚BTC Iran's "Ceasefire" announcement causes a sharp rebound in global risk assets. Bitcoin made a desperate comeback after touching the $59k level, regaining the $63k mark; Ethereum re-entered above $1,700, with a 24-hour increase of over 4%. Shorts were caught off guard, with over $570 million liquidated in the past 24 hours, of which more than 80% were short positions. However, the rebound is not smooth sailing—this Wednesday, the US May CPI data will be released, the last rate cut window of the year is closing, and Middle East tensions could shift again at any time. How far can this short squeeze driven by geopolitical factors go?
一、Middle East ceasefire: from 59K desperate counterattack to 63K in 24 hours
Over the past weekend, the crypto market staged a thrilling "V-shaped reversal." Earlier in the week, unexpectedly weak non-farm payroll data caused rate cut expectations to collapse instantly, leading to heavy sell-offs in both US stocks and crypto markets. Bitcoin briefly fell below the psychological $60k level, hitting a low of $59,101, the lowest in nearly three months; Ethereum also plunged, approaching $1,580.
Just as panic spread, a dramatic shift occurred in geopolitical tensions. Iran and Israel agreed to temporarily halt hostilities—according to multiple reports, military confrontations in the Strait of Hormuz and Lebanon have eased temporarily. International oil prices surged then retreated, with WTI crude dropping about 1% to $91.29 per barrel, and Brent crude briefly spiking before falling back near $94. The decline in oil prices directly contributed to risk appetite recovery. Cryptocurrency markets responded with a rebound, Bitcoin retook the $63,000 level, and popular coins followed suit. Data shows BTC once surged past $64,000 intraday, up nearly 4% from the daily low. ETH rebounded from $1,580 to above $1,700, with a 24-hour high of nearly 4.5%.
On the technical side, Bitcoin's weekly chart shows a rare "bullish divergence" signal. According to Coinglass data, the last time this signal appeared was at the end of 2022, after which Bitcoin surged from $16,000 to over $73,000. However, whether this rebound can evolve into a trend reversal remains to be seen—current prices are still below a downward trendline since the cycle high, maintaining a generally bearish market structure.
Beware of logical traps: the rebound driven by geopolitical tensions is essentially a "war premium unwinding" squeeze, not a sign of fundamental improvement. If the situation escalates again, the basis for the rebound will collapse instantly.
二、Rebound slaughter of shorts: $760 million wiped out
The most painful cost of this rebound fell on those betting on declines. Over the past 24 hours, total liquidations across the network reached about $573 million. Among them, short positions were liquidated for $463 million, accounting for over 80%, while longs only saw about $59k liquidated. Approximately 95,758 traders were forcibly liquidated.
By coin, Bitcoin short liquidations amounted to about $239 million, longs about $24.42 million; Ethereum short liquidations about $134 million, longs about $26.49 million. However, in this bloodbath of short squeeze, longs also did not escape unscathed. During the earlier sharp decline, long positions were also heavily liquidated. Currently, Bitcoin contracts total about $44.4 billion, Ethereum about $23.7 billion, with market leverage still adjusting.
Core logic: The current rebound is essentially a situation where excessive short positioning triggers a chain reaction of short covering at any marginal positive news.
三、CPI looming: Wednesday data the biggest short-term variable
Compared to the "phase-wise cooling" of Middle East tensions, the US May CPI data to be released on June 10 is the real key variable determining the short-term direction.
According to Trading Economics forecasts, the market expects the May overall CPI year-over-year to accelerate from 3.8% to 4.2%, while core CPI (excluding food and energy) is expected to rise by 2.9%. April's CPI YoY of 3.8% was the highest in nearly three years. If May's data climbs further to 4.2%, it indicates inflation is not cooling but accelerating. For the crypto market, CPI data is crucial because of its influence on interest rate paths. If a second hot CPI reading occurs, market consensus on a rate cut in 2026 will be completely eliminated, and global liquidity will tighten further, possibly pushing Bitcoin to test the mid-$60,000 range.
Moreover, the latest forecast from BNP Paribas has shifted the baseline scenario from "rate cuts" to "three rate hikes starting at the end of 2026," citing persistent inflation risks and economic pressures from US-Iran conflicts. Cleveland Fed Chair Loretta Mester also warned that if inflation continues to accelerate, "the Fed may need to resume rate hikes soon."
On June 16-17, Waller will chair the FOMC meeting for the first time as Fed Chair. Currently, the market prices a 98% probability of holding rates steady in June. The Fed's dot plot and Waller's remarks at the press conference will set the policy tone for the second half of the year. Before this meeting, CPI data will be the key variable determining the final shape of the dot plot.
Worst-case scenario: CPI accelerates to 4.2%+ → rate hikes become completely unlikely within the year → BTC falls below $60,000, testing the $59,000-$55,000 range; CPI slightly above expectations but manageable → focus shifts to the dot plot, with BTC maintaining $60,000-$65,000 range.
四、ETF and capital flow: two polarizations of "Ice and Fire"
Behind this rebound, the structural divergence in capital flows continues to intensify. On one hand, Bitcoin ETF outflows remain significant. As of the week ending June 5, net outflows from Bitcoin spot ETFs totaled about $1.72 billion, continuing a four-week streak of billion-dollar redemptions since mid-May. Last week (June 2-6), net outflows reached $129 million, with Fidelity's FBTC leading at $168 million outflow. As of June 8, 2026, Bitcoin ETF net outflows this year have totaled $2.6 billion.
On the other hand, the opposite side also warrants attention: BlackRock's IBIT saw a contrarian net inflow of $81 million last week, reaching a total net inflow of $48.65 billion since inception. BlackRock is still accumulating at the bottom, indicating that the market is not fully retreating—"BlackRock is buying, other institutions are watching." Meanwhile, Ethereum faces even more severe capital difficulties.
The US Ethereum spot ETF has been in continuous net outflows for a long time. Since 2026, the crypto ETF market has shown a clear "BTC strong, ETH weak" pattern, with Ethereum ETF capital and attention far below Bitcoin ETF. The ETH/BTC exchange rate once dropped to 0.0248, a near two-year low, and has slightly recovered to 0.0262, revealing the market's true capital preference—under risk aversion, funds are quickly flowing from Ethereum to Bitcoin.
五、On-chain divergence: miner pressure vs whale accumulation
Behind the sharp price fluctuations, on-chain data shows more complex bullish and bearish signals.
Bearish signals: Miner selling pressure persists. Data shows daily exchange inflows of 10,000 to 12,000 BTC, still high, with no clear signs of selling pressure easing. Miner profit margins have also shrunk significantly; over the past month, Bitcoin production costs are around $43,000, while spot prices have fallen from over $80,000 to near $60,000, with profit margins dropping from 98% to 47%.
Bullish signals: Hash rate decline + whale accumulation.
Bitcoin's hash rate has decreased by about 145 EH/s since May, the first such contraction in six years, as some miners shift power to AI data centers. The decline in hash rate means mining difficulty will see a significant adjustment on June 13, further lowering the unit costs for surviving miners. Meanwhile, miner holdings increased by 637 BTC in the past 7 days, indicating some miners are accumulating rather than selling.
Notably, large institutional players are taking contrarian actions. Coinb's strategy head revealed that family offices, sovereign wealth funds, and other large investors are not panicking but see Bitcoin dropping below $60,000 as a buying opportunity at a discount. Addresses related to BitMine bought 25,000 ETH early on June 9 from Krak, worth about $42.03 million, showing some long-term capital is systematically accumulating ETH at current levels.
六、Key support and resistance levels for Bitcoin
Current price: approximately $63,500-$64,000
Key support: $60,000 (psychological round number, previous strong support), $59,000 (recent low, a break below opens space to $55,000-$57,000), $55,000 (deep accumulation zone)
Key resistance: $65,000 (short-term first barrier), $66,500-$67,000 (requires volume breakout to confirm rebound trend), $70,000 (bearish psychological line, needs macro catalysts to re-enter)
Technical analysis: Price remains below a downward trendline since the cycle high, maintaining a generally bearish market structure. Weekly MACD histogram has begun to rise from recent lows, indicating weakening bearish momentum but still below neutral. Aroon indicators show Aroon Up near 93%, Aroon Down around 64%, highlighting renewed buying activity near support levels, while sellers still exert influence.
Ethereum's current price: approximately $1,680-$1,710
Key support: $1,592 (long liquidation warning line, a break triggers about $995 million long liquidations), $1,500 (psychological round number), $1,380-$1,420 (next target if $1,500 fails)
Key resistance: $1,730-$1,750 (short-term bull-bear dividing line), $1,758 (break above triggers about $871 million short liquidations), $1,800 (medium-term moving average resistance zone)
Technical analysis: Ethereum has tested lows four times in four days without making new lows, indicating weakening bearish momentum. However, volume during rebounds remains weak, with insufficient buying persistence. The current market is more about "short covering" than "long buying." ETH/BTC remains near two-year lows, reflecting ongoing capital flow from Ethereum to Bitcoin. Liquidation warnings: overall market leverage remains high, with about 6-10% volatility space filled with liquidation orders below BTC and ETH. If ETH drops below $1,592, major CEXs could see $995 million in long liquidations; if it breaks above $1,758, short liquidations could reach $871 million.
七、Trading suggestions
Short-term traders: The current rebound is driven by geopolitical news, macro risks are not yet resolved. Exercise extreme caution. Before CPI data release (June 10, Beijing time evening), prefer to observe more and act less.
BTC strategy: If the rebound stalls at $65,000-$66,000, consider small short positions with strict stop-loss; do not chase longs at this level. If CPI data is hot and price volume breaks above $67,000, consider small long entries targeting $70,000.
ETH strategy: Ethereum's weak structure has not fundamentally changed. Rebound to $1,730-$1,750 is a good shorting opportunity; longs should wait for clear reversal signals in ETF capital flows for medium- and long-term accumulation. For long-term investors: macro headwinds persist, CPI data risk remains, and ETF capital has not yet reversed trend. But on-chain signals like declining miner hash rate, whale accumulation, and BlackRock IBIT inflows suggest long-term chips are intact. For long-term allocation, below $60,000 has value for phased dollar-cost averaging, but with very slow pace and small positions, avoiding heavy bets before CPI data.
Key risk warnings:
1. CPI爆雷风险 (short-term maximum variable): If May CPI YoY rises to 4.2% as expected, rate cut expectations will vanish, BTC may quickly fall below $60,000, ETH faces $1,592 liquidation risk.
2. Middle East volatility: current ceasefire is temporary; escalation will push oil prices higher, increasing inflation expectations and macro pressure.
3. ETF outflows: Bitcoin ETFs have seen four consecutive weeks of billion-dollar redemptions; if BlackRock IBIT also turns to outflows, the market could face greater blood loss.
4. Dot plot risk: If the June 16-17 FOMC meeting shifts the median dot from "two rate cuts" to "one" or "none," it will impact market sentiment. Miner selling pressure remains high, with daily inflows over 10,000 BTC, indicating structural supply pressure.

#SpaceX获大幅超额IPO认购 As SpaceX's IPO activities gradually advance, sources have revealed to the media that investor demand for SpaceX's IPO has reached approximately $150 billion, double the originally planned $75 billion to be raised. Although a twofold oversubscription rate is relatively moderate for most highly anticipated public offerings, most bankers and investors believe that, given this is the largest IPO in U.S. stock market history, SpaceX's market demand remains impressive. The sources caution that the company is still in the early stages of its marketing process, and investor demand may change before the IPO pricing this week. The sources added that some large institutional investors tend to place orders later in the IPO process, and the current subscription figures only reflect potential interest, not final allocations. Last week, SpaceX launched a roadshow, attempting to persuade investors that its IPO is an important gateway for investors to access a new trillion-dollar market driven by space launches, internet connectivity, and artificial intelligence business expansion. During the roadshow, SpaceX emphasized the uniqueness of its rocket launch business. The company stated that over the past three years, its launched payloads have accounted for the vast majority of the total mass entering orbit, while also highlighting the strength of its Starlink internet business. SpaceX also promoted a market opportunity worth up to $23 trillion, claiming its AI products are poised to seize this opportunity, and pointed out that it is the only company capable of breaking free from terrestrial commercial limitations and building AI computing power in space, which is expected to generate enormous market demand in the future. During the roadshow, SpaceX stated: "We have significantly reduced the cost of accessing space, enabling us to expand our mission scope to address several urgent challenges facing Earth, including narrowing the digital divide, aiming to connect over 3 billion people without internet access and to share human knowledge."

#认证创作者专属推广任务Gate Platform's World Cup Prediction Market
Gate, as the first centralized exchange platform to connect with Polymarket, has officially launched the World Cup section, integrating three core modules: schedule, points ranking, and event predictions.
How to use
1. Upgrade the Gate App to version v8.22 or above
2. Enter the World Cup section through the "Prediction Market" portal within the app
3. One-stop view: group stage matchups, real-time points ranking, and qualification outlook
4. Directly participate in the World Cup prediction contract trading section on Polymarket
Feature Highlights
Schedule Calendar: displays daily match arrangements in a timeline format for quick overview of key events
Real-time Points Ranking: track qualification prospects for each group at any time
One-click Subscription Alerts (coming soon): subscribe to alerts for all matches
Seamless Transition to Prediction Contracts: watch matches while directly accessing the corresponding prediction market pages
During the NBA Finals on June 6, Gate set a record for the highest single-day trading volume on Polymarket, with a smooth prediction market trading experience.
If you want to participate in the World Cup predictions on Gate, just upgrade your app to the latest version to access the section and experience it.

#美股AI概念股普涨 Historical Review: Significant changes in macro expectations have a notable impact on the short-term performance of U.S. stocks in the semiconductor hardware sector.
Our review finds that since 2024, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) has experienced four clear pullbacks, each lasting relatively short periods (between half a month and two months), including April 2024 (-15.2%, decline), July 2024 (-31.1%), February 2025 (-49.1%), and March 2026 (-18.6%). The primary trigger for these declines has been changes in macro expectations, with market concerns sequentially reflecting: stagflation, recession, recession, and stagflation.
Regarding the logical transmission between macro factors and U.S. semiconductor hardware, we believe one explanation is more plausible: since 2023, AI computing power has been the core driving force behind the stock price movements of U.S. semiconductor hardware companies, with major U.S. tech giants being the primary sources of funding for massive AI computing investments (accounting for over 50% of total). Currently, AI remains in its early development stage, with tech giants mainly relying on traditional businesses (internet, software, etc.) to provide ongoing financing for AI investments.
In simple terms, the prosperity of AI computing power (i.e., U.S. semiconductor hardware) depends not only on technological and application progress within the AI industry itself but also on stable and ideal macroeconomic conditions as support. Recent strong employment data and tense Middle East conflicts are also significantly influencing market expectations for FED monetary policy, which in turn fuels concerns about the sustainability of AI capital expenditure (CAPEX).
AI Progress: The short-term industry narrative is nearly perfect, but there is still a clear distance from the claim of a “fully closed-loop commercialization.”
Since early 2026, aided by rapid penetration of AI Agents, exponential growth in Anthropic’s ARR (annual recurring revenue), and persistent tight supply and demand for AI computing power, the AI industry appears to be thriving. However, we also note that the current high prosperity of the AI industry is supported by several favorable factors: short-term curiosity among enterprises and individuals, exponential growth in AI token consumption driven by chatbots and AI Agents, and rising prices and business models shifting to token-based billing due to tight supply and demand for computing power.
In the short term, from upstream (semiconductor hardware) to downstream (cloud providers, model vendors, etc.), the entire industry chain is significantly affected by inflation caused by tight supply and demand for computing power. Some segments, such as storage chips, are generating excess profits that are difficult to explain with basic economic principles.
From a mid-term perspective, we still need to explore more high-value monetization scenarios beyond existing use cases like AI coding to match the massive upstream AI CAPEX investments. Economically, the token-based billing model is more of a transitional arrangement; ultimately, pricing should be linked to actual commercial output and utility.
Future Outlook: Expect continued high volatility, closely monitor the risk of phase mismatch between investment and output.
Since the dot-com bubble in 2000, over the past 20+ years, the rise and fall of global technological waves have been primarily driven by industry trends, but macro factors also play an important role.
In the short term, we believe the market will remain highly volatile due to: 1) persistently high yields on long-term U.S. bonds, which make the U.S. stock market itself highly unstable and significantly suppress risk appetite; 2) benefiting from short-term tight supply and demand for computing power, the AI industry’s micro-level fundamentals are relatively flawless, with industry logic continuously reinforcing itself.
However, the current ultra-high profit margins of U.S. semiconductor and hardware companies depend on the sustained growth of global AI CAPEX. We estimate that North America’s four major cloud providers will spend about $710 billion on CAPEX in 2026, roughly equal to their operating cash flows for the same period, and they are raising more funds through debt and equity issuance. Such behavior may make Wall Street more short-sighted and demanding.
From a top-down perspective, the AI industry has very little room for error in the coming quarters. While the long-term trend and commercial value of AI are unlikely to be questioned, the current crowded market, large AI CAPEX investments, and financial pressures on tech giants create a phase of adjustment driven by short-term mismatches between investment and output.
Indicators such as token price data and tech giants’ bond CDS are currently favored for monitoring these risks.
Risk Factors:
Sticky inflation and runaway risks; AI technological progress falling short of expectations; risks of uncontrolled AI development; tech giants’ capital expenditure contraction and slowdown; geopolitical conflicts causing global supply chain disruptions; policy uncertainty ahead of U.S. midterm elections.
Investment Strategy:
Short-term adjustments in U.S. tech stocks are mainly driven by revisions in monetary policy expectations, crowded markets, and company-specific noise.
In the short term, the self-reinforcing bullish logic of the AI industry is unlikely to reverse, but the industry still has a clear distance from “fully closed-loop commercialization,” and more high-value monetization scenarios need to be developed.
Meanwhile, rising long-term bond yields and limited market tolerance for errors suggest continued high volatility. It is crucial to closely monitor the phase mismatch between AI investments and outputs, with high-frequency indicators serving as practical tools for now.

#分享美股交易赢英伟达股票 The counterintuitive rally in the US stock market, why did strong employment data lead to a big sell-off?
These days, US stocks are falling sharply. After reading some financial bloggers' analyses, the root cause of the plunge is linked to the US non-farm payroll data released on June 5, 2026—data was very good, yet the capital markets didn't buy it. Strong employment data shouldn't be the enemy of stocks. What really caused the sell-off was that robust employment forced the Federal Reserve to keep high interest rates, abandoning the possibility of rate cuts.
1. Market Replay
On June 5, 2026, the US May non-farm payrolls were released, and global capital markets changed course: Nasdaq plunged over 4% in a single day, stocks, commodities, and gold all weakened, the dollar index firmly stayed above 100, US bonds remained calm throughout. The most interesting part was that the trend defied expectations, with three abnormal phenomena stacking together.
2. Three Abnormalities Stacked
Abnormality 1: Stocks: The better the economy, the sharper the decline
This time, non-farm data exceeded expectations: 172k new non-farm jobs, nearly double the market forecast of 90k; unemployment rate held at a historic low of 4.3%; wages grew modestly to 3.4% year-over-year, easing inflationary pressures; employment data for March and April were continuously revised upward, adding a total of 93k jobs, severely underestimating previous employment heat. Labor force participation remained unchanged, indicating no increase in labor supply; broad unemployment rate slightly declined, further reducing idle labor. According to traditional economics, booming employment and resilient economy should be bullish for stocks. But the market instead moved inversely: the brighter the data, the more violently stocks fell. The current pricing logic has long detached from "economic fundamentals" and shifted to "monetary policy expectations."
Abnormality 2: Bond Market: Exceptionally Calm
During the peak of rate hike fears, the 30-year US Treasury yield once soared to 5.1%. According to past patterns, this super-strong employment data should have reinforced the Fed's hawkish stance, causing bonds to plummet and yields to spike. But in reality, yields hardly moved. The bond market is the most rational capital market globally. It’s not worried about short-term rate fluctuations but doubts the US's long-term economic growth fundamentals over the next 5-10 years. Short-term rate adjustments over 1-2 years are manageable; but concerns about long-term economic decline and structural risks are the core reasons investors avoid betting on distant future trends.
Abnormality 3: Not Safe-Haven, But Liquidity Panic
In normal markets, a strong dollar usually pressures gold, with divergent trends. But this time, both the dollar and gold weakened simultaneously. No traditional safe-haven behavior appeared; funds were cashing out regardless of costs. Investors no longer preferred safe assets like gold but were frantically selling all assets to exchange for US dollars. This extreme pursuit of liquidity is the core evidence of the deep correction in US stocks.
3. The Fed’s Decision Logic
Many mistakenly believe the Fed sets policy based on the economy’s health; in fact, the Fed only looks at one thing: whether current data will lead to looser or tighter monetary policy. The decision paradigm is simple and fixed: strong employment + high inflation = continued tightening; weak employment + low inflation = easing. Super-strong employment data directly signals to the Fed: high interest rates must continue, and rate cuts within the year are completely unlikely. Previously, the market had been betting on rate cuts for half a year, supporting growth stocks and AI hype, but all that support has been wiped out, breaking stock valuations.
Chain of Damage 1: Rising rates, systemic shrinkage of high-valuation assets
Tech growth stocks are valued based on future cash flows, not current profits. Interest rates are the key switch in this valuation system. The higher the rates, the lower the present value of future profits. High-valued tech growth stocks are the most fragile assets in a high-rate environment.
Chain of Damage 2: Expectation reversal, forced liquidation
Before the data was released, the market was uniformly optimistic: rate cuts within the year, continued growth in stocks, ongoing AI rally. Massive funds pre-placed bets on rate cuts and heavily invested in tech sectors. When rate cut expectations suddenly vanished, all these positions had to be liquidated. It’s not that the economy collapsed, but that the consensus expectations shattered, triggering a panic. As a result, the Nasdaq fell much more than the S&P and Dow: overvalued, overextended tech giants, concentrated speculative funds, bubble-like AI narratives, multiple weaknesses stacking—any disturbance causes sharp corrections.
4. Hidden Economic Worries Behind Booming Employment
Everyone understands the superficial rate game, but the bond market’s ability to ignore short-term volatility and remain bearish on long-term growth stems from two overlooked hidden data points—America’s economic prosperity is already hollow.
1. Quantity without quality: employment quality keeps declining
Employment numbers surged, but wage growth slowed from 3.6% to 3.4%. This inverse data indicates most new jobs are in low-end, low-wage sectors like leisure and basic services, with little growth in high-end, high-paying industries. This "quantity without quality" employment structure seems to ease inflation but actually cuts off the core path for income growth, constraining consumption recovery and foreshadowing recession.
2. Overdrawing savings, false resilience in consumption
The signals from this non-farm report are: US household savings rate hit a four-year low; per capita disposable income has declined for three consecutive months. Consumer spending isn’t driven by economic improvement or income growth but by households depleting savings and overdrawing future purchasing power. On one side, seemingly invincible employment data; on the other, weakening consumer spending—this extreme disconnect between strong employment and weak consumption hints at stagflation. This is the ultimate reason for the calm in long-term bonds: short-term data looks dazzling, but long-term growth is already weak.
5. The so-called strong employment might be a statistical illusion
If we only look at stagflation, we still miss the core of this market’s nature. Borrowing from Fisher’s debt-deflation theory, a more disruptive judgment can be made: the current super-strong employment might be a false prosperity on paper. Irving Fisher in 1933 pointed out that the pre-signal of major economic depressions isn’t typical monetary fluctuations but extreme credit expansion. The Japanese asset bubble of the 1980s is a classic example: uncontrolled credit expansion fueled asset bubbles, with companies overexpanding and households overspending, creating a false sense of prosperity. When the bubble burst, decades of stagnation followed. This logic applies perfectly to today’s US market: massive money isn’t flowing into the real economy or translating into corporate profits or household income; it’s just circulating in stocks, bonds, and other assets for arbitrage. GDP appears steady, but asset prices far outpace real economic growth. Worse, the extreme imbalance in money distribution—asset prices fluctuate and appreciate, the wealthy accumulate wealth through asset gains, their salaries are adjusted annually but eroded by inflation, while ordinary people struggle with income growth. The so-called resilient employment might just be a bubble-driven false prosperity, not a real economic recovery.
6. When everyone is unanimously bullish, the market is at its peak
Technical indicators and data are surface phenomena; the extreme consensus in sentiment is the underlying driver of this plunge. Before the May non-farm data was released, the US market was already in a frenzy: AI was hailed as the ultimate narrative, viewed as the core driver of US GDP growth; leveraged tech ETFs soared multiple times in the short term; speculative emotions ran rampant; tech giants like Dell saw huge short-term gains; the S&P broke into a rare long streak of gains, with bears losing all positions; no bearish voices emerged; panic buying by missing out on the rally. Everyone was caught in the bull market frenzy.
There’s an eternal rule in capital markets: when everyone agrees, there’s no new capital—only profit-taking. This super-strong employment data was never the culprit of the crash—it’s just a pin bursting the bubble, forcibly pulling the market out of AI narrative euphoria back to reality of high rates, weak consumption, and false prosperity. The data itself hasn’t changed; what has changed is market sentiment: in a pessimistic market, strong employment signals resilience; in a euphoric market, it signals tightening and downside risk.
7. The market’s pattern isn’t repetitive, but always highly resonant
The counterintuitive script of "better economy, more stock declines" isn’t new. Every similar cycle in history shares a core logic of high similarity.
In December 2018, US non-farm payrolls exploded, with wages hitting a decade-high growth rate. The strong data reinforced hawkish expectations, causing the S&P and Nasdaq to plunge over 9% in a month. Then the Fed quickly turned dovish, and monetary policy shifted. In late 2022, US inflation broke 9%, rate hikes resumed, employment data kept beating expectations, but high rates suppressed growth valuations, and Nasdaq plunged over 20%. Similarly, in China, 2010 saw GDP growth over 10%, with solid fundamentals, yet the A-share market fell nearly 19% that year—mainly due to expectation chaos and capital fleeing.
Comparing these, the 2026 cycle most closely resembles 2018: strong employment locking in tightening expectations, combined with internal consumption worries. The only new variable is the productivity paradox of the AI industry—technological dividends can’t translate into household income or consumption; employment gains are concentrated in low-end service sectors that AI can’t replace—an unprecedented situation with no historical precedent.
The productivity paradox of the AI revolution is: technology boosts white-collar efficiency, but new jobs are concentrated in low-end service sectors that AI can’t replace—indicating the transmission mechanism of AI dividends is currently broken.
8. Is it a shakeout or a collapse?
After the plunge, everyone’s top concern: is this a sharp shakeout within a bull market, or the start of a bubble burst and trend top?
First, define the bubble: a true bubble isn’t just rapid rise but a long-term unrecoverable collapse, with permanent wealth destruction. Price swings are normal; whether it can recover is the key to distinguishing a regular correction from a real bubble.
The future trajectory of this cycle depends on three core variables:
- Fed policy pace—whether dovish signals and rate cut expectations can be reintroduced in Q3
- AI industry performance—whether actual earnings can justify high valuations
- Commodity and inflation trends—whether high interest rates will further solidify
If none of these deteriorate systematically, this plunge is just valuation correction and capital shakeout after exuberance; but if all three risks align, the market could face a much sharper decline.
9. Recap of the May 2026 US stock plunge: all counterintuitive trends have layered truths:
- Surface: Strong employment locking in high rates, tech stocks collectively devalued
- Second layer: Weak wages, depleted savings, signs of stagflation emerging
- Deep layer: Employment data may be distorted, monetary circulation fueling asset false prosperity
- Emotional layer: Extreme bullish consensus, a turning point in sentiment triggering reversal
- Historical layer: Repeat of tightening cycles, strong employment tightening monetary policy as normal
- Ultimate layer: Whether it can be quickly repaired determines if the correction is a shakeout or a bubble burst
Capital markets never follow intuition or surface data blindly. They constantly adjust between expectations and reality. This plunge isn’t a market failure; it’s the market’s sober correction after being blinded by euphoria. The market was driven not by fundamental problems but by overexcited funds caught in the bull’s carnival, finally pulled back to reality by cold fundamentals.

#分享美股交易赢英伟达股票 Nvidia has already reached $5 trillion. Is it still a good time to invest now?
— Nvidia's latest quarterly revenue is $81.6 billion, a year-over-year surge of 85%, with a market value once surpassing $5.7 trillion, topping the global rankings. But the AI chip sector is shifting from "Nvidia's dominance" to "multiple players vying for supremacy," as cloud providers develop in-house solutions, AMD catches up, and the Chinese market is losing ground... The most profitable hardware business on this planet is entering its most complex phase. Is Nvidia worth this valuation now?
Let's start with the conclusion
Where is Nvidia now?
Stock price range: approximately $224 per share (early June 2026), 52-week low $129, 52-week high about $236
Market cap: about $5.4 trillion, ranking second globally (alternating with Apple for first place)
Latest quarterly (Q1 of FY2027) revenue: $81.6 billion, up 85% YoY, well above expectations
Next quarter guidance: $91 billion, still expected to grow over 70% YoY
Three key judgments:
✅ Under what conditions can Nvidia continue to rise?
→ Continuous explosion in demand for AI large model training/inference, cloud providers' capital expenditure remains high
→ Rubin architecture scheduled for mass production in late 2026, performance boosted fivefold to create new demand
→ RTX Spark enters AI PC market, opening a second growth curve, with consumer-side computing power demand following
⚠️ Under what conditions will it face significant pressure?
→ Major clients (Google, Amazon, Microsoft) exceeding expectations in self-developing ASIC chips, diverting orders
→ China market lost + Huawei Ascend accelerates substitution, Asia-Pacific revenue continues to shrink
→ AMD MI350/MI400 series making inroads in inference market, price wars lowering Nvidia’s gross margin
→ Macroeconomic risks: Federal Reserve’s delay in interest rate cuts leading to shrinking valuations of tech stocks
💡 How do ordinary investors view this?
→ Nvidia is not a bubble, but it’s also not a "buy blindly and it will rise" bargain
→ Focus on the erosion rate of CUDA’s moat, which is the most critical indicator
→ Investors who cannot tolerate a 30% pullback should control their positions; historically, Nvidia experiences deep corrections once every 1-2 years
II. What happened this year: From "DeepSeek’s blowout" to "regaining the top spot globally"
Nvidia’s story in 2026 is a classic "desperate turnaround."
End of January 2026: DeepSeek R1 debuts, achieving top inference performance at extremely low training costs, causing market panic—"If AI can be so cost-efficient, does Nvidia still need to exist?"
Nvidia’s stock plummeted nearly 17% in a single day, evaporating about $600 billion in market value, setting a record for the largest single-day loss in U.S. stock history.
February 2026: Nvidia releases full-year FY2026 financial report, with total revenue of $215.9 billion, up 65% YoY, net profit of $120 billion.
Refuting panic: Blackwell chips shipped 6 million units annually, in high demand. The market reinterprets the "DeepSeek effect"—more efficient inference models actually stimulate more applications, and computing demand is structural, not cyclical.
April 2026: H20 export ban suddenly enforced. The Trump administration announced an indefinite ban on Nvidia exporting H20 chips to China, leading to a $5.5 billion impairment loss, nearly cutting off the Chinese market.
May 2026: Are the negatives over? Nvidia releases Q1 FY2027 financials:
Revenue of $81.6 billion, beating expectations by $3 billion
Data center revenue: $75.2 billion, accounting for 92% of total revenue
Net profit: $58.3 billion, up 211% YoY
Q2 guidance: $91 billion, surpassing market expectations again. Meanwhile, Nvidia announced RTX Spark at Computex 2026—a joint effort with MediaTek, using TSMC’s 3nm process, integrating 70 billion transistors, marking its official entry into the AI PC market. OEMs like Dell, Lenovo, Asus will ship in bulk by fall 2026. In the first week of June: Nvidia’s stock hit new highs, closing near $224, with a market cap surpassing $5.4 trillion.
III. Nvidia’s three moats and three tigers
Moats: Why everyone "can't do without" Nvidia
Moat 1: CUDA ecosystem—10 years of accumulated "irreplaceable"
Think of CUDA as "the native language of AI engineers." Millions of AI engineers worldwide, thousands of deep learning frameworks, and vast amounts of production code are built on CUDA. Switching to competing chips is like asking someone who only speaks Mandarin to suddenly work in Cantonese—possible, but costly. It’s estimated Nvidia holds about 70% of the global AI training market, not just because of the chips’ quality (which is also high), but because of CUDA’s migration barrier.
Moat 2: Full-stack layout—selling more than just chips
Nvidia’s core product isn’t just GPUs, but a "full-stack computing solution":
Chips (GPU + Grace CPU)
Interconnects (NVLink, several times faster than PCIe)
Software frameworks (CUDA + cuDNN + TensorRT)
Complete systems (DGX servers, NVL72/NVL144 racks)
Cloud services (DGX Cloud)
This means customers buy an entire solution, not just a chip.
Moat 3: The annual "arms race" leading to dominance
Nvidia announces new architectures every year: Hopper → Blackwell → Rubin (late 2026) → Feynman (2028). Rubin NVL144’s FP4 performance is five times that of Blackwell, ensuring that competitors always lag one generation behind.
Three tigers: invisible risks
Tiger 1: Major clients "both buyers and competitors"—Microsoft, Google, Amazon, Meta are Nvidia’s biggest customers and rivals:
Google’s TPU has internally replaced many Nvidia chips and is starting to sell externally
Amazon’s self-developed ASICs, Trainium and Inferentia, continue to evolve
OpenAI’s joint plan with Broadcom and TSMC to produce chips in 2026
Meta has developed its own AI chip, MTIA—essentially, like a restaurant’s biggest customer starting to learn cooking—short-term still dependent on Nvidia, but long-term gradually taking market share.
Tiger 2: China market is sealed off
China was Nvidia’s second-largest market after the U.S. The indefinite ban on H20 chips means Nvidia almost has no revenue from China, as Huawei Ascend chips accelerate to fill the gap, likely capturing over 50% of China’s AI chip market. This is not just revenue loss (about $17 billion annually), but a strategic loss of an ecosystem development market.
Tiger 3: The inference demand revolution is quietly arriving
Training large models requires high-throughput GPUs like A100/H100/Blackwell, with no substitutes. But inference—getting models to answer questions—is different—AMD, Intel, cloud providers’ self-developed ASICs, and even Nvidia’s own RTX consumer cards can run inference. Inference is the main battlefield for AI deployment at scale. If competitors eat into the inference market, Nvidia’s dominance in training will be limited, and the ceiling will be reached sooner.
IV. AI chip sector panorama: not just Nvidia
By 2026, the global AI chip market is expected to surpass $280 billion, growing over 40% YoY. But the battlefield has shifted from Nvidia’s "monopoly" to a multi-polar landscape.
In short: Nvidia is the most powerful force in this war, but the battlefield is expanding, and opponents are multiplying.
V. Historical top and bottom features: When will Nvidia experience a major drop?
Nvidia’s stock has surged over 30 times in the past five years, but it has also experienced multiple deep corrections of over 30%. Historical top signals include:
Quarterly decline in AI capital expenditure (key signal)
Two consecutive quarters of revenue growth slowdown exceeding 20 percentage points
Major clients publicly announcing reduced GPU orders or shifting to self-developed solutions
Significant macro rate hikes, leading to overall valuation contraction in tech stocks
Competitors gaining over 40% market share in inference (current about 17%)
Major clients’ CEOs tone down capital expenditure guidance during earnings calls
How many of these are currently triggered? Out of the six signals, only about one (China market lost) is clearly triggered; the rest are not yet evident.
Overall, Nvidia is still far from "top of the cycle" signals, but geopolitical risks (tariffs + export bans) can trigger sudden large swings at any time.
Nvidia’s $81.5 billion quarterly revenue proves one thing: the money in AI is initially flowing to the "shovel sellers." But the good times for shovel businesses are never eternal—when gold miners start making their own shovels, or new gold rush sites no longer need shovels, the story enters a new chapter.
Understanding Nvidia isn’t about judging whether it "can keep rising," but about grasping what stage the company is in: from monopoly to multi-stronghold, from data center unicorn to full-stack AI infrastructure provider. Different stages, different logic, and different opportunities and risks.

#分享美股交易赢英伟达股票 This Week's US Stock Trading Guide
Macro Analysis
Last Friday experienced a rare sharp decline, with several reasons:
1. Strong non-farm payroll data increased rate hike expectations, causing the 10-year US Treasury yield to rise above 4.5%. Although the market surged in the past two months, ignoring the data's impact, this old issue is always remembered and can be used to trigger a sell-off when needed.
2. AVGO's earnings guidance fell short of expectations, leading to profit-taking in previously overbought chip stocks, including storage stocks which also saw significant pullbacks.
3. Major IPOs. SpaceX is set to go public this week, raising hundreds of billions of dollars. Historically, the market tends to pull back five days before a major IPO; besides SpaceX, giants like Anthropic and OpenAI are also preparing for IPOs, with market caps exceeding one trillion dollars and raising hundreds of billions. The simultaneous IPOs of three giants and the upcoming yen rate hike add to capital outflows.
These three factors caused the rare big drop on Friday. After the decline started on Wednesday, a strong rebound on Thursday was confusing, masking the intention of the Friday plunge, leaving many users heavily loss-making on their holdings.
The market trend this week is expected to be a slight rebound on Monday and Tuesday due to oversold conditions last Friday, with a fluctuation range of 7400-7500. The listing of SPCX on Friday puts significant pressure on the market this week; next week, the Federal Reserve's rate decision and Powell’s first appearance will be very important and sensitive. If CPI data is high, rate hike expectations will intensify, and the market may continue to decline. Therefore, even if there is a rebound on Monday and Tuesday, the market remains fragile. If major players start selling, further dips are possible. Do not rush to buy the dip. The IPOs of SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI are the core reasons for recent and upcoming market declines, compounded by the yen rate hike next week; close monitoring of US Treasury yields and the yen exchange rate is essential.
This decline is a technical correction after a sustained rally and a safe-haven response to the policy uncertainty in mid-June and the yen rate hike. Before June 18, the risk of market decline remains high. The correct approach now is to reduce positions, maintaining 30-40% of holdings, focusing on core stocks in the computing power, chip, and optical module sectors. These stocks tend to rebound more strongly if the market recovers; if the market falls, they are more resilient, and adding positions at psychological support levels is advisable.
This week’s focus is on earnings reports from ORCL and ADBE:
ORCL: Last September’s earnings surged 35%, offering 100x and 1000x options opportunities. Later, due to excessive capital expenditure, ORCL’s stock weakened; if capital expenditure continues to expand and debt rises, the stock may decline further. If earnings beat expectations and debt concerns are alleviated, it will rally. Implied volatility in options suggests about a 12% potential move up or down. ADBE: Last earnings report saw a sharp decline because the AI business segment and revenue were not reflected, risking being replaced by AI; if it fails to deliver AI results again, it will continue to fall. Conversely, if it finds a clear AI direction, it could surge. ADBE’s management is honest and conservative, less prone to hype, so the latter scenario is more likely.
Sector Analysis
SpaceX is expected to go public on June 12. Due to limited allocation, subscription ratios have exceeded 20x, with a one-year lock-up for existing shareholders. The first-day rise is likely, with an estimated 20% increase; this is directly negative for ASTS and also negative for RKLB, which has drained sector funds. Recommended to buy SATS+GOOGSATS: holding 2.1% stake; GOOG: holding 4.8%.
Data Center - Computing Power
Data center computing power is currently unable to meet demand; continue buying and holding.
NBIS+IREN: buy in stages at 205, 180, 160
IREN: buy in stages at 48, 42, 33
Data Center - Chips and Optical Modules
Last week’s correction was a short-term profit-taking, with fundamentals unchanged. Bottom-fishing and holding are recommended.
Lite+GLW: buy in stages at 850, 700
GLW: buy in stages at 162, 130
Drones
The US Department of Defense has increased funding for drones in 2027; recent stock prices are relatively low, suitable for buying on dips. AVAV+UMAC+RCAT
Major Events This Week
June 8, Monday
Pre-market earnings: Fuel Cell Energy (FCEL), Optical Cable (OCC)
Major event: Apple’s Worldwide Developers Conference (WWDC26) at 01:00 the next day.
Important data: 23:00 US May NY Fed 1-year inflation expectations, 3.64%
June 9, Tuesday
Important data: 18:00 US May NFIB Small Business Optimism Index, 95.9
20:15 US weekly change in ADP employment (ten thousand), 3.575
June 10, Wednesday
Post-market earnings: 【Oracle (ORCL)】
Important data: 20:30 US May seasonally adjusted CPI monthly rate, 0.60%, 0.50%
20:30 US May core CPI monthly rate, 0.40%, 0.30%
20:30 US May unadjusted CPI annual rate, 3.80%, 4.20%
20:30 US May unadjusted core CPI annual rate, 2.80%, 2.90%
June 11, Thursday
Post-market earnings: Lennar (LEN), Adobe (ADBE)
Important data: 20:30 US weekly initial jobless claims (ten thousand), 22.5, 21.9
20:30 US May PPI monthly rate, 1.40%, 0.7%, not yet released
20:30 US May PPI annual rate, 6.00%, 6.4%, not yet released
June 12, Friday
SPCX IPO: usually around 2 PM during trading hours
Important data: 22:00 US June University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index preliminary, 44.8, 46
22:00 US June 1-year inflation expectations preliminary, 4.80%

#分享美股交易赢英伟达股票 NVIDIA (NVDA) Stock Price Recent Analysis and Key Points:
1 Current Stock Price and Market Capitalization
As of early June 2026, NVIDIA's stock price is approximately $224 per share, with a total market cap of about $5.4 trillion, reaching a historical high range.
2 Recent Stock Price Drivers
Outperforming Earnings: The Q1 FY2027 financial report released in May 2026 shows revenue of $81.6 billion, a year-over-year surge of 85%, far exceeding market expectations. Data center revenue reached $75.2 billion, accounting for 92% of total revenue, highlighting sustained strong demand for AI computing power.
Product Iteration Expectations: Blackwell architecture chips are ramping up production, and Rubin architecture is planned for mass production in the second half of 2026, with performance increasing fivefold. Market expectations for its future growth potential are high.
Consumer Segment Expansion: RTX Spark is entering the AI PC market, opening a second consumer curve, providing additional support for the stock price.
3 Potential Risks and Pressure Points
Impact of Chinese Market: The H20 chip export ban has nearly eliminated revenue from the Chinese market. Competitors like Huawei Ascend are accelerating substitution, which may have a long-term impact on NVIDIA’s market share in Asia-Pacific.
Major Customers Developing In-House Chips: Microsoft, Google, Amazon, and other large clients are developing their own ASIC chips, which could divert orders from NVIDIA, posing long-term revenue growth pressure.
Valuation and Expectation Fatigue: Despite continuous outperformance, the market has formed the perception that “outperformance is the norm,” making it difficult for simple overperformance to significantly boost the stock price. Only “super-super expectations” can trigger notable reactions.
4 Technical Aspects and Short-Term Trends
The stock price is in a narrow upward channel, with short-term support around $217–$208. A break below could lead to a dip near $194; resistance is at $236, and a breakout could push toward $250.
RSI indicates short-term overbought conditions, with some correction pressure, but the overall upward trend remains solid.
Summary: NVIDIA’s stock price is driven in the short term by earnings exceeding expectations and product iteration. It is likely to continue rising but should watch for risks from the Chinese market, competition from in-house chips by major clients, and valuation fatigue. Long-term, if AI computing demand continues to explode and product iteration proceeds smoothly, there is still room for price growth, though volatility may increase. $NVDA

#分享美股交易赢英伟达股票 In-Depth Analysis of Tesla!
1 Current stock price and market performance (June 5 closing)
Latest stock price: $248.35 USD.
Performance today: Down about 4.8%, affected by the overall U.S. stock market correction and macroeconomic data.
Market capitalization: Approximately $795 billion.
Performance since 2026: Cumulative increase of about 18-22%, a moderate performance, underperforming pure AI stocks (like NVIDIA), but outperforming traditional auto sectors.
Recent volatility: June 3-5, influenced by U.S.-Iran geopolitical risks and strong non-farm employment data, with high Beta characteristics causing noticeable pullbacks.
2 Latest 2026 performance (Q1 + Q2 outlook)
Q1 2026 deliveries: About 453k units (slightly up year-over-year, but below market optimistic expectations).
Q1 revenue: About $25.1 billion, up approximately 8-10% year-over-year. - Q1 gross margin: About 17.2% (significantly driven by energy business).
Key highlights:
Energy storage (Megapack): Rapid growth, has become an important profit engine.
FSD subscription revenue: Steadily increasing, a high-margin business.
Cybertruck: Production continues to ramp up, but scale remains limited.
3 Business structure and growth logic
Automotive business: Still the foundation, but growth is slowing.
Energy business: Strong demand for Megapack, benefiting from global grid upgrades.
Autonomous driving (FSD / Robotaxi): Market overestimates valuation narrative. FSD v12.x continues to iterate, Robotaxi expected to gradually roll out from late 2026 to early 2027.
Optimus humanoid robot: Long-term heavy hitter, but still in early testing stages in 2026.
4 Investment logic (mainstream Wall Street view)
Positive:
High growth and high margins in energy business.
FSD subscription model provides stable cash flow.
Elon Musk’s execution and brand influence.
Long-term global EV trend remains.
Risks:
Intensified competition (BYD and others applying pressure on price and smart driving).
Slowing delivery growth.
High valuation (Forward P/E still relatively high).
Macroeconomic environment (geopolitical risks + high interest rates) suppresses growth stocks. *Summary: Tesla remains a comprehensive platform company in global EVs, autonomous driving, energy, and robotics. 2026 is a critical transition year from rapid growth to technological implementation and monetization. Short-term macro and competitive pressures exist, but the medium- and long-term story remains strong. It is recommended to dynamically adjust positions based on macro environment and delivery data.$TSLA

#分享美股交易赢英伟达股票 AVGO June 9th Forecast:
Technical: If the stock price continues to decline, the $400 round number and the 50-day moving average (around $380) are key support levels. If it breaks below $400, it may further test $380; if it holds above $400, it could enter a range-bound movement between $400 and $450.
Fundamentals: Broadcom's AI business still has growth potential, but concerns about its high valuation may persist. If upcoming earnings reports or industry developments do not show unexpected positive surprises, the stock price may continue to be under pressure.
Market Sentiment: The AI sector is generally volatile. If market risk appetite decreases, AVGO may be dragged down; if a new catalyst emerges in the industry (such as breakthroughs in AI applications), a rebound could occur.
Risk Warning: The AI industry is highly competitive, and customer concentration risk still exists. Attention should be paid to subsequent earnings reports and industry developments. $AVGO

#分享美股交易赢英伟达股票 As of June 8, 2026, Micron Technology (MU) stock price rose 8.18% in pre-market trading, reporting $934.54. Here is the latest trend analysis:
1 Short-term trend
The stock has shown a volatile upward trend recently, affected by non-farm payroll data on June 5, which pressured tech stocks overall, but Micron rebounded against the trend in pre-market trading, indicating market expectations for its memory chip demand remain strong. Technically, the stock broke through previous highs, with short-term moving averages (such as 9-day and 21-day EMA) and long-term moving averages (50-day EMA) forming a bullish alignment, with volume gradually increasing, showing bullish dominance.
2 Mid-term trend
As a global leader in storage chips, Micron benefits from strong demand for HBM, DRAM, and NAND in AI servers. Recent earnings reports show its HBM business is sold out through 2026, deeply tied to AI chip manufacturers like Nvidia, with product mix shifting toward high-margin, high-value memory, maintaining a solid mid-term growth logic.
3 Risk factors
Cyclical volatility risk: The storage industry remains cyclical; if AI server demand slows or storage prices decline, it could impact the company's profits.
Competitive risk: Competitors like Samsung and SK Hynix pose pressure in HBM market share and technological iteration.
Valuation risk: The current stock price already reflects optimistic expectations; if future performance growth falls short, valuation corrections may occur.
Investment advice: In the short term, watch for stock price fluctuations between $900 and $950; if volume breaks through $950, consider increasing holdings; if it falls below $850, be alert to short-term correction risks.
In the medium to long term, Micron's layout and commercialization capabilities in AI storage are strong, and it is recommended to hold long-term, focusing on AI business revenue growth and capital expenditure returns.$MU

#比特币回升5% BTC Daily Analysis: Starting to Rebound
Macroeconomic Analysis: Currently, the US-Iran conflict, through the theme of "energy inflation," has dragged Bitcoin into a macro trap of "high volatility and tight liquidity."
In the short term, Bitcoin has become a "barometer of geopolitical tensions," jumping up and down with headlines;
In the long term, inflation caused by the war has delayed the expectation of rate cuts, which is the real threat to Bitcoin's bull market.
Until this conflict is resolved, "sharp rises and falls" will be the norm for Bitcoin.
Market Analysis: After oversold decline, Bitcoin has rebounded, regaining support around 61,000 to 62,500, and a bottoming signal has appeared on the daily chart.
At smaller timeframes, a "W" bottom pattern has formed, and the neckline has already been broken.
Watch whether it will continue to rise or fall back to the support zone, continuing to oscillate.
Upper resistance is around 64,700; if it can break through and stay above, the outlook remains bullish; otherwise, it will continue to trade sideways in the bottom range.
Short-term focus is essential.
Today is Monday, and the weekly chart shows a large bearish candle with a lower shadow, which is normal in volume-price relation, but caution is advised as there is a possibility of further decline this week. Stay alert.
Due to geopolitical influences, short-term sharp rises and falls may occur. Pay attention to candlestick patterns and structures, develop a trading plan, and maintain good defense to stay fearless of short-term noise! $BTC

#分享美股交易赢英伟达股票 U.S. Stocks Weekly Preview (June 9–13)
1. This Week’s Market Close Background
This weekend, the Nasdaq plunged over 4% in a single day, and the Semiconductor Index (SOX) tumbled more than 10%, marking the largest single-day decline since April last year. Just two days prior, the index had hit a record high. The trigger was a panic over interest rate hikes fueled by consecutive strong employment data—non-farm payrolls increased by 172k in May, nearly double the market expectation of 85k, with the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.3%, and the 10-year Treasury yield jumping to 4.54% that day. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) surged 34% in a single day, closing above 20. Market sentiment has clearly reversed, and next week faces multiple tests.
2. Key Data Calendar
Wednesday (June 11) — May CPI (Major)
The May CPI data will reveal how rising oil and gas prices are transmitted to overall inflation. The market is closely watching whether energy prices have spread to other CPI components. This is the most significant data of the week, just one week before the Federal Reserve’s June 17 policy meeting. Its reading will have an unusually direct impact on the Fed’s dot plot, prompting traders to update their expectations for rate cuts or hikes this year. The previous CPI (April) already pressured the market—April’s YoY CPI rose 3.8%, the highest since May 2023, with core CPI up 2.8% YoY. If May data again exceeds expectations, expectations for rate hikes will intensify further.
Thursday (June 12) — May PPI
April PPI surged 1.4% MoM and soared to 6.0% YoY. PPI is released one day after CPI; if both are high simultaneously, it will add pressure; if there is divergence, it will provide interpretive space for the market.
3. The Largest IPO in History—SpaceX Debuts (Stock Code: SPCX)
Expected to price on Thursday night, June 11, at $135 per share for 555.6 million shares, with plans to list on Nasdaq on June 12. The IPO aims to raise about $75 billion, with a valuation estimated at $1.75 trillion or more. If completed, it will be the largest IPO in history. This event has a dual impact: on one hand, it attracts enormous attention and boosts sentiment; on the other, investors may sell recent winners to subscribe for SpaceX, creating short-term selling pressure.
4. Key Earnings Reports
The earnings season is mostly over this week, but some major tech companies remain noteworthy, including Oracle (ORCL), which will report next week. Adobe will also release its quarterly results. Both benefit from AI infrastructure, and the market will focus on whether their outlooks for AI demand can lift sentiment, which has been dampened by semiconductor sell-offs.
5. Apple WWDC Developer Conference
Apple’s (AAPL) annual Worldwide Developers Conference (WWDC) will kick off next week, focusing on AI feature updates and new product previews. Under the overall pressure on the tech sector, whether WWDC can bring a sentiment boost is another key point of attention.
6. Federal Reserve and Interest Rate Outlook
After the surge in energy prices, futures markets are digesting a higher likelihood of the Fed raising rates this year rather than cutting, which is a stark reversal from early-year expectations of rate cuts. Changes in Fed policy expectations are a core driver of this round of sell-off. Additionally, the S&P 500 has rebounded over 20% from its late March lows without a healthy correction, adding technical pressure to the market.
7. Overall Analysis
Historically, a 5%–10% correction during a bull market is normal consolidation, and we may currently be in such a phase. However, June’s seasonal outlook is not very optimistic. The market’s leadership is concentrated in AI and energy sectors, with narrow breadth; combined with high valuations, narrowing risk premiums for stocks and bonds, and rising bond yields, the market’s vulnerability to negative surprises is increasing.
Core logic: CPI next week is the biggest variable—if data exceeds expectations, rate hike expectations will rise, further suppressing overvalued tech stocks; if below expectations, sentiment can quickly recover. The SpaceX IPO remains the focal point of weekly sentiment and liquidity observation. $AAPL

#分享美股交易赢英伟达股票 U.S. stocks plummeted: New leaders adjust, old leaders take the stage, the market turning point has arrived!
Terminology definitions:
New leaders = high-valuation growth sectors such as AI computing power, semiconductors, cutting-edge technology;
Old leaders = traditional blue chips with high dividends and low valuations such as banks, consumer staples, energy, pharmaceuticals, utilities;
The June 5th sharp decline marks a key turning point where the style shift from a unilateral rally driven by new leaders to an advantage for old leaders.
1. Valuation structure logic: The bubble in new leader valuations bursts, revealing the valuation troughs of old leaders
1.1 The valuation overextension of new leaders is released in a concentrated manner
In the first half of 2026, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose by a maximum of 75%, AI hardware sector’s dynamic PE generally ranged from 52 to 58 times, over 90% premium compared to historical averages; Broadcom’s Q3 AI revenue guidance of $16 billion was below the market consensus of $16.3–17.2 billion, breaking the “AI performance always exceeds expectations” pricing logic. High-premium stocks lose valuation support, with Broadcom dropping 12.13% in one day, driving the semiconductor index down 10.26%, the valuation anchor of the new leaders collapses. Previously, the market priced new leaders based on long-term growth potential, and as soon as earnings failed to surpass expectations, selling was triggered, with near-zero tolerance for errors. The sharp decline completes the correction from bubble to reasonable valuation.
1.2 Old leaders’ long-term valuations are at historic lows, with ample safety margins
The Dow Jones components (mainly old leaders) have an overall PE of only 12.7 times, with banks and consumer staples PE in the 20% percentile over the past decade, energy sector PE below 9 times, and high dividend yields generally between 3.5% and 5.2%. In a high-interest-rate environment, the valuation premium for stable cash flow and dividends significantly increases. After the decline, risk-averse funds prioritize allocating to undervalued troughs, initiating valuation recovery.
1.3 The valuation pendulum solidifies the trend: shifting funds from overvalued assets to undervalued assets is the underlying logic of this style rotation.
2. Macro liquidity logic: Interest rate expectations reverse, valuation paradigm shifts from growth to value
2.1 Non-farm payroll data reverses rate cut expectations, 10-year US Treasury yield rises above 4.51%. US non-farm jobs increased by 172k in May (expected 80k), with upward revisions of 93k in the previous two months, and unemployment remains at 4.3%. CME interest rate futures show the probability of a 25 basis point hike in December 2026 surges from 48% to 67.7%, with the full-year rate cut expectation essentially eliminated. High-valuation new leaders are priced based on forward cash flow discounting; rising yields directly compress present value. Old leaders have stable current cash flows, minimally impacted by rising discount rates, making liquidity conditions favor old leaders and suppress new leaders.
2.2 Persistent inflation disturbances reinforce tightening expectations; crude oil stabilizes above $97/barrel, raising inflation concerns. The Fed finds it difficult to loosen policy. Long-term growth valuations of new leaders face pressure, while old leaders’ anti-inflation attributes are further recognized by funds.
2.3 Liquidity turning point: easing fosters a bull market for new leaders, while marginal tightening initiates a rally for old leaders. This decline is the market’s realization of the liquidity logic.
3. Capital behavior logic: Trillion-level existing funds reallocate, officially initiating profit-taking for new leaders and increasing positions in old leaders
3.1 Leading asset managers reduce holdings of new leaders early, accelerating realization of gains
BlackRock manages $5.7 trillion, and in Q1 2026, it reduced holdings of Nvidia, Microsoft, Tesla, and other new leader giants, with nearly $200 billion in net disposals in a single quarter; on June 5th, during the sharp drop, public funds and hedge funds took profits on AI hardware at high levels, with net outflows from the tech sector exceeding $112 billion in one day, with funds flowing into old leaders like ExxonMobil, Bank of America, Coca-Cola.
3.2 Market signals confirm the style switch: on June 5th, Nasdaq fell 4.18% (new leaders heavily hit), while Dow only fell 1.35%, with the traditional blue-chip stocks repeatedly rebounding intraday; banks, pharmaceuticals, and consumer staples all rose across the board, showing a “sharp decline in new leaders, resilience of old leaders” market feature.
3.3 Irreversible capital shift under existing holdings: the total market funds in US stocks did not exit massively, only internal sector reallocations. The massive funds realized from new leaders are becoming long-term incremental capital for old leaders, and this switch is sustainable rather than a short-term pulse.
4. Industry cycle logic: New leaders’ growth slows at the margin, while fundamentals of old leaders remain stable
4.1 AI computing power capital expenditure declines at the margin, with new leaders’ prosperity peaking and receding. Broadcom and Micron have lowered downstream server order expectations. Global AI capital expenditure growth slowed from 72% in Q1 to an expected 41% in Q2. Hardware growth has entered a slowdown cycle, losing fundamental support after previously being driven by high prosperity; short-term AI application expectations are below forecasts, lengthening the story realization cycle, and funds are withdrawing from thematic speculation.
4.2 Old leaders’ performance remains stable across cycles: demand for consumer staples is rigid, energy benefits from high oil prices, banks benefit from high interest margins. In Q2 2026, earnings growth for old leaders generally maintained between 6% and 11%, with significantly higher earnings certainty than the declining-growth new leaders. In volatile environments, earnings certainty becomes the primary factor for fund allocation.
4.3 Industry cycle inflection point: new leaders’ prosperity declines, old leaders’ fundamentals remain steady. The market’s shift from chasing high-growth expectations to locking in stable profits completes the industry valuation transition.
5. Market structure logic: Extreme crowding disintegrates, ending the polarization, and old leaders restore market breadth
5.1 Prior extreme crowding in US stocks: the top ten new tech stocks in the S&P 500 account for 40% of the total market value, and 70% of trading volume concentrates in just 5% of high-value stocks. Over 60% of traditional stocks have long-term declines, with existing funds continuously siphoned by new leaders, creating a distorted market structure.
5.2 The sharp decline breaks the unilateral crowding pattern: after the collective correction of new leaders, funds are no longer concentrated in a single sector but diversify into undervalued old leaders. The market shifts from a single AI-driven bull to multi-sector rotation. Historical patterns show that after extreme crowding disintegrates, style switching cycles typically last 3–8 months. This decline marks the beginning of structural reorganization.
5.3 Mid-tier (mid-cap) stocks also flow out: some non-hot tech and midstream manufacturing stocks follow old leaders’ strength, further dispersing new leaders’ existing capital and accelerating the phased end of the new leader rally.
6. Stage-based market outlook
(1) Short-term (1–3 weeks): new leaders stabilize at the bottom, old leaders rally
1. New leaders (AI chips, computing power): continue digesting valuations, retrace 5%–12%, only giants like Nvidia and Apple resist declines, second-tier tech continues correction;
2. Old leaders (banks, energy, consumer staples): supported by safe-haven funds, continue to rise, buffering the overall market, with the Dow showing stronger resilience than Nasdaq.
(2) Mid-term (March–October): old leaders become the main market theme, new leaders show structural divergence
1. Old leaders lead the rally: high-dividend value stocks continue bullish, energy, pharma, utilities take turns catching up, institutional allocations keep rising;
2. New leaders only have niche opportunities: AI applications, edge computing, and other low-position segments see sporadic rallies, ending the broad-based bull market, shifting from a full-sector rally to localized themes.
(3) Long-term (Q4): only if inflation drops sharply and the Fed cuts rates will new leaders potentially restart a trend; without easing, the old leader rally persists through the second half of the year.
7. Two major risks in the style switch
1. Optimistic reversal risk: US CPI quickly falls below 2%, the Fed restarts rate cuts, US bond yields drop below 4.2%, leading to a short-term technical rebound in new leaders and a slowdown in style switching;
2. Deep bear market risk: crude oil surpasses $100, wage inflation rebounds, the Fed hikes rates, US bond yields break above 4.8%, maximum drawdown for new leaders exceeds 20%, old leaders temporarily rally then follow the market correction, but with a significantly smaller decline than new leaders.
The above views are compiled from publicly available internet information and brokerage research reports and do not constitute any investment advice. Investing involves risks; proceed cautiously.

#分享美股交易赢英伟达股票 NVDA Market Analysis
Does Nvidia really have a bubble?
Conclusion: There is no performance bubble in the classic sense, but there is a significant macro liquidity premium. The essence of a bubble is a Ponzi valuation lacking free cash flow support (such as the price-to-earnings ratio during the internet bubble of the late 1990s). With a quarterly revenue of $81.6 billion, a gross margin of 75%, and $50.3 billion in operating cash flow, Nvidia has established a solid value foundation. Its forward P/E ratio (31-33 times) and PEG ratio (0.30) are even relatively low among large tech stocks. The current price pullback is squeezing the liquidity premium caused by the failed expectations of macro rate cuts, not bursting the performance bubble.
Is there still long-term upside potential?
Conclusion: It has extremely certain long-term doubling potential.
Artificial intelligence is evolving from text-based generative large models to multimodal “Physical AI / Agentic AI” that interacts with the physical world. Huang Renxun announced the Vera Rubin architecture and Groq 3 LPU at Computex, which, through modular upgrades from 1.5TB LPDDR5X to 768GB, have reduced inference costs by an order of magnitude. This collapse in computing costs will directly trigger widespread edge applications across thousands of industries, driving a restructuring of up to $1 trillion in computing infrastructure. This makes the core logic of its long-term rise unbreakable.
How high is the risk of Nvidia experiencing a significant pullback?
Conclusion: In the medium to short term, there is a very high tail risk of a pullback. Although long-term optimistic, in the coming weeks, the stock price is like walking a tightrope. The resurgence of Fed rate hike expectations, the death cross break of MACD and moving averages, and the Senate hearing on June 11 regarding military flows to China all hang over the stock. Technical models show that if the lower Bollinger Band at $200 is broken, a downward test of the $170-175 support level (an additional approximately 15% pullback) is a completely logical pessimistic scenario. $NVDA

#分享美股交易赢英伟达股票 How far can the storage bull market run? Morgan Stanley: Supply and demand imbalance continues for 2-3 more years, views on Micron/SanDisk
Morgan Stanley released a storage chip report on June 3rd, with the core conclusion: The supply and demand imbalance for DRAM and NAND cannot be quickly resolved, and shortages may persist for another 2-3 years or even longer.
DRAM has become the biggest bottleneck in AI computing power development, with large-scale clients' willingness to pay remaining high. Morgan Stanley significantly raised its earnings forecasts and target prices for Micron (MU) and SanDisk (SNDK)—Micron’s target price doubled from $520 to $1,050, and SanDisk’s from $1,100 to $1,750, both maintaining an overweight rating.
Let's look at the key points:
1. DRAM shortage is unsolvable, supply growth limited
DRAM has become the main bottleneck in AI development. Shortages of cleanroom facilities and EUV equipment restrict supply growth, while the wafer consumption intensity of HBM further squeezes traditional DRAM capacity.
Morgan Stanley expects DRAM prices to rise 40% quarter-over-quarter in May, and another 15% in August. Although this is below the over 20% increase feedback from the supply chain, it is still strong enough.
Micron’s CY26/CY27 EPS forecasts are raised by 4%/48%, with CY27 EPS expected to reach $113.85. The current stock price corresponds to a P/E ratio still below 10 times.
2. NAND is also tight, SanDisk benefits from enterprise SSD demand
AI inference demand is changing the NAND market structure, with large-scale clients locking in high-performance NAND. Kioxia, SanDisk’s joint venture partner, only slightly adjusted its long-term bit growth expectation from 20% to 22%, with capital expenditures remaining low (about $4.7 billion annually), limiting supply increases.
Morgan Stanley raised SanDisk’s CY26/CY27 EPS forecasts by 12%/24%, with CY27 EPS expected to reach $208. The target price of $1,750 still corresponds to less than 10x P/E.
3. Long-term contracts are a “symptom” rather than a “cause”
Market attention is on multiple long-term supply agreements (LTA). Morgan Stanley believes that LTAs are necessary for customers to secure supply, demonstrating that large-scale clients are willing to continue expanding storage procurement over the next few years, rather than being driven primarily by price increases. The real driver remains the supply-demand imbalance.
4. Accelerating capital returns: buybacks to restart soon
Micron previously could not buy back shares due to CHIPS Act restrictions but is expected to initiate large-scale buybacks starting FY27. Morgan Stanley’s model shows about $50 billion in buybacks in FY27-28. SanDisk’s free cash flow conversion rate has historically been higher, benefiting similarly.
5. Valuation still has room to rise
Micron’s target price is based on a 29.5x multiple of long-term cycle EPS ($35), and SanDisk’s on a 28x cycle EPS ($62.5), both comparable to the semiconductor sector average. However, the current stock price’s P/E for CY27 EPS is still below 10x. Morgan Stanley believes the market has not fully priced in the sustainability of profits and multiple upward revisions.
Summary: Storage chips are in a historically severe shortage cycle. AI-driven demand structurally raises the profit center, while supply-side capacity expansion is limited, making the high prosperity duration longer than expected.
Micron and SanDisk’s current valuations remain attractive. Negotiations on HBM contracts and buyback initiations in the second half of the year are expected to become new catalysts. Risks include demand slowdown, which could lead to rapid price declines due to high inventories.
All the above are from Morgan Stanley’s research reports and do not constitute investment advice.
$MU

#分享美股交易赢英伟达股票 Detailed analysis of Broadcom Inc. (AVGO) (Data as of June 2026)
What does Broadcom do?
Broadcom is a global leader in semiconductors and infrastructure software, known as one of the "toll booths" of AI infrastructure.
Its core business is divided into two main segments:
Semiconductor Solutions
Custom AI Accelerators (XPU), AI network chips, Ethernet switches, optical modules, broadband, wireless, storage chips, and other AI chips are absolutely core, providing custom AI chips for hyperscalers like Google, Meta, OpenAI, and Anthropic.
Infrastructure Software
VMware virtualization, cybersecurity, enterprise software, storage management, etc. After acquiring VMware in 2023, it became an important source of stable cash flow.
In simple terms: Broadcom is an infrastructure provider in the AI era. It does not directly produce GPUs (that’s Nvidia’s domain), but instead supplies network connectivity, custom accelerators, optical modules, switches, and other "behind-the-scenes" components for AI servers, making it an important partner in Nvidia’s ecosystem.
Latest key data (Fiscal Year 2026)
Q2 2026 (as of May 3, 2026):
Total revenue: $22.2 billion (up 48% year-over-year)
AI semiconductor revenue: $10.8 billion (up 143% year-over-year)
Adjusted EBITDA margin: 69% (very high)
Full-year guidance:
AI semiconductor revenue target: $56 billion (approximately 180% YoY growth)
AI revenue target for 2027: over $100 billion
Market position:
Market cap: approximately $1.98 trillion (one of the top 10 companies globally)
Expected total revenue for FY 2026: close to $80-90 billion
AI business has become the company's strongest growth engine.
Major clients: Google, Meta, OpenAI, Anthropic, and 6 other hyperscalers (some with custom AI chips).
Investment logic summary
Advantages:
Strong in AI custom chips and networking, one of the few semiconductor companies that can truly profit from the AI wave.
Software business (VMware) provides high gross margins and stable cash flow.
Strong management execution, very high gross margins and free cash flow.
Risks:
Highly dependent on AI capital expenditure cycles; if hyperscalers slow procurement, growth will decline significantly.
Valuation remains high long-term and is very sensitive to performance guidance (the recent sharp drop was a typical "sell the news" event).
Summary:
Broadcom is one of the most pure infrastructure plays in the AI era, not just a chip company but a "major steward behind AI data centers."
Its growth is highly tied to the long-term trend of global AI capital spending.
$AVGO