# 特朗普宣布美伊停火结束

Originally, I thought BTC would plunge due to the war, but I didn't expect such a quick recovery. After looking at a lot of fund flow and news-related content, I'll summarize my personal views:
Today's rally during the Asian session, I'm more inclined to interpret it as sentiment repair combined with short covering, rather than the sudden disappearance of macro risks.
Last night, the situation in the Middle East continued to escalate, with crude oil surging. The market had initially feared that BTC would follow risk assets and keep falling.
But the actual move was that BTC, with negative news

🚨 When the cannon fires, ten thousand taels of gold🤔? This time, Bitcoin didn’t crash—Ethereum actually looked tough!🚨
Meizi struck more than 170 military targets inside Iran for two straight days. Trump directly said, “the Memorandum of Understanding has ended.”
Meizi officials revealed that this round of conflict could last a day or two, or it could last a week, or even a month.
Oil tanker passage through the Strait of Hormuz has “basically stopped”—the geopolitical fire has spread to the global energy lifeline.
But the magic is: Bitcoin$BTC ‌
stayed steady around 61,800,
and Ethereum$ET

Many friends have been asking me about my outlook on the market. Let me first summarize today's intraday trend: bulls repeatedly attempted to break through the 63,200 resistance level, but each time they quickly pulled back to around 62,600 to consolidate and gather momentum for another breakout. This shows that bullish momentum is relatively exhausted. So why hasn't the market declined yet? I believe it's more because the signals from the recent US-Iran situation have been repeatedly contradictory, leading to a continuous tug-of-war between bulls and bears, with neither side willing to conced

Geopolitical situations have always been the biggest driver of market fluctuations. With the current escalation of the Middle East conflict, oil and gas categories have directly surged upward, driving various markets higher in tandem. The short-term dividends generated by news are fleeting.
Most people focus only on chasing the upward trend brought by the conflict, diving into high-level follow-the-herd positions, but ignore the risk of a sharp decline hidden behind potential de-escalation or US regulatory measures, making it easy to get trapped at highs and suffer repeated losses.
Instead of

July 10 Jingyi’s market thoughts: Yesterday we were inseparable; today we turned enemies. The US–Iran ceasefire agreement has once again become a joke. The gates of the Strait of Hormuz open and close at times. Crude oil and gold also saw a small uptick. Jingyi placed a short at 640 and exited all positions at 617, taking a furious bite of 2,300 points.
From the current market structure, the 4-hour chart has broken below 625 support. Bears are still pushing with strength, and bulls have yet to launch an effective counterattack. Trading volume is shrinking with a slow, downward drift. Selling p