TraderInvestmentNotes

2026.7.15 Day market analysis
Yesterday’s data and talks were an unexpectedly positive catalyst. It cools down demand for future rate cuts, but the probability of rate cuts won’t be repeated too many times, or remain unchanged for a long period—it's only indicating that a bearish phase is temporarily over… don’t hold too much hope.
During the day: currently, it mainly ranges and consolidates at the high level. Pullbacks still have a tendency to push higher. For now, don’t chase long positions. Long and short can both be traded today.
Resistance levels: 65800, 67200, 1935, 1980 Support levels

2026.7.14 Day market analysis
Based on current CPI data, it looks bullish, more tilted to the positive. The broader environment still isn’t bullish enough to expect too much upside. Once the good data is in the market, there’s an opportunity to push higher, which seems reasonable.
During the day: the 4-hour chart is ranging/oscillating—slowly. Don’t rush into shorting so quickly. If the bullish data pushes higher, then exit【Key resistance 1880, 1930, 65200, 66666】

Resistance levels: 66666, 67200, 1850, 1950
Support levels: 62600, 61800, 1760, 1710

For ETH that day: a small pullback on t

2026.7.13 Day Trading Market Analysis
CPI may bring good news due to cooling caused by rate hikes, and there is little possibility of large-scale rate cuts. If there are more rate hikes, it’s also relatively good for liquidity. We don’t expect too much room for a big rally… unless the recent employment data is very good and inflation stabilizes, then there may be a trend toward rate cuts. It’s unlikely that there can be continuous rate cuts this year—at most once; it’s also possible that there may be none……
For futures, you can only do swing trades; for spot, do more watching and less trading.

2026.7.10 Daytime Market Analysis
The released AI large-cap tech stocks, most of which hold Bitcoin, so today BTC is showing a bullish signal...
Today: 4-hour chart slowly bullish, rallying to a divergence, take profit on short-term positions, do range-bound longs, look for a rally to touch the golden line resistance
Resistance: 65200, 66666, 1850, 1950
Support: 62000, 61200, 1710, 1635
ETH today: Current price 1748 long, 1750, 1740 long, stop loss 1725, take profit 1810, 1830, 1850
BTC today: Current price 63200 long or 63000 support, look for a rally without breaking or breaking 64500, 65

2026.7.9 Daytime Market Analysis
Macro: Dovish, not predicting the future. If oil surges, policy needs to change. From the market perspective, this round of interest rates may remain unchanged. The previous bearish view is starting to improve. Only if there is a technical bottoming out can there be a rebound.
Spot: The broader market still has short-term breakdown demand. You can add to watchlist. There should be an opportunity by the end of the year.
Today: Continuing the 4-hour consolidation, with a relatively bearish outlook. Continue to focus on pullback shorts. Short is the main direction

July 8, 2026 Daytime Market Analysis
Before the news arrives, it's all about consolidation. The Federal Reserve has implemented new war strategies against Iran, and tonight's meeting minutes are extremely bearish... From a technical perspective, it's quite bearish...
Today: 4-hour oscillation bearish mainly. Today's news is bearish, so short-term long positions are not to be touched. Rebounds are bearish mainly...
Resistance levels: 1810, 1850, 64500, 65200
Support levels: 1710, 1650, 61500, 60400
Ethereum today: Aggressively enter on 5-minute signals slowly. Short positions at 1820, 1810, s

2026.7.7 Daytime Market Analysis
From a macro perspective, there is a constant need to talk up rate cut expectations, and significant unilateral moves are not expected for now.
Today: 4-hour divergence, first do a volatile bearish trend, mainly bearish, then go long near the gold line 1710--1685--61600--60800 on the pullback.
Resistance levels: 1850, 1900, 65200, 66666
Support levels: 1750, 1680, 62500, 60800
Ethereum today: Aggressive 5-minute signal short, add at 1835, 1820 and 1835 short, stop loss 1850, take profit 1740, 1720, second take profit needs bearish news to see 1700, 1650.
Bitc

2026.7.6 Daytime Market Analysis
Chairman Warren cooled down the rate hike expectations, without providing any forward guidance, so no reference should be taken. The market will continue to rise for now... until the meeting minutes are released, but the current cooling expectations have been eliminated... The major trend has reached the daily gold line, where a pullback is expected, unless the Fed releases positive news that triggers chasing longs.
Today: Frequent wicking and sideways movement, with some pullback to form a 4-hour bullish consolidation... Short-term longs should exit upon reach

2026.7.3 Daytime Market Analysis
The expectation of interest rate hikes has cooled down, coupled with the positive pre-judgment of the small non-farm payroll. It has changed from the original expectation of rate hikes to a current 50% probability. If subsequent data continue to show such maintenance, turning from bearish to bullish, that means the bearish news has been priced in, and the outlook will continue to be bullish…
Today: Still rebounding upward after a pullback. A bottom bounce does not signify the arrival of a bull market; current conditions are not sufficient. We will wait for sus

Nonfarm Payrolls are released today, US stock markets will be closed on Friday.
On July 2, due to the US Independence Day holiday (July 3), the US June nonfarm payroll data will be released early at 20:30 Beijing time on July 2 (today).
The US stock market will be closed on July 3 (Friday). Trading of precious metals, energy, foreign exchange, US Treasury bonds, and stock index futures contracts under the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) will end early at 01:00 Beijing time on July 4. Trading of Brent crude oil futures contracts under the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) will end early at 01:3

2026.7 Daytime Market Analysis
The new chairman made no comments or interventions about future rate hike adjustments, and currently remains neutral on whether to raise rates or not, maintaining interest rates at a moderate level. Today may see a continued rise, but not by much...
Today: Based on last night's comments and Walsh's speech, the market will continue to rise today, with a bottom-fishing rebound trend... The daily chart shows a divergence from BTC, and ETH's MACD is also lifting the bottom... Drop the short orders... Look for opportunities to go long today.
Resistance levels: 1680, 1

2026 July Data Table
July 1: 20:15 U.S. June ADP Employment Change (in ten thousands)
July 2: 20:30 U.S. June Seasonally Adjusted Nonfarm Payrolls (in ten thousands) --- U.S. Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending June 27 (in ten thousands)
July 3: U.S. Independence Day Holiday, market closed for one day
July 9: 20:30 U.S. Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending July 4 (in ten thousands) --- 2:00 Federal Reserve releases minutes of the monetary policy meeting
July 14: 20:30 U.S. June Unadjusted CPI Year-over-Year
July 15: 1:00 2027 FOMC voter, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee parti

2026.7.1 Daytime Market Analysis
Recent performance shows a rebound trend after a bottom wick, bottoming out and bouncing back... BTC and ETH have a diverging trend, with BTC being relatively weak...
Today: After bottoming out and rebounding, BTC will continuously wick its way into divergence and then go long... Looking at the time cycle, first go long on the rebound, then look at the decline [short longs should be taken quickly, medium-term short mindset].
Resistance levels: 1680, 1800, 60500, 62500
Support levels: 1540, 1480, 57200, 56500
ETH today: Aggressive 5-minute signal for long posi

2026.6.30 Daytime Market Analysis
In July, based on data, a rate hike is quite certain, and CPI is also leaning bearish. Unless the meeting minutes in the first half of the month mention a rate cut agenda, the overall July data will be bearish. Before July 5, there will be a short-term false bottom rally.
Today: It won’t rise too high in the short term. Consolidation followed by a pull-up is still bearish. Short-term oscillations upward, pulling up, then breaking down, then rebounding... Today, trade long with oscillation.
Resistance: 1650, 1800, 62500, 65600
Support: 1530, 1460, 58000, 5720

Key Events This Week: U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls, Four Central Banks Converge, U.S.-Iran Hold Technical Talks
June 29—This week, global market attention is highly concentrated. On Wednesday, the heads of the Federal Reserve, the Bank of England, the Bank of Canada, and the European Central Bank will all speak together at the ECB’s Sintra Forum, and the market will closely watch for policy signals. On Thursday, the release of U.S. June nonfarm employment and unemployment rate data will be one of the most weighty economic indicators in the near term.
In technology and industry, Samsung Group and SK G

2026.6.29 Daytime Market Analysis
4-hour slow oscillation upward bullish, technically medium-term still bearish, macro news does not support an overall negative bias, today do oscillating upward bullish... don't chase shorts
Today: prevent falling knife and spikes to go long at the bottom, or spike divergence then rebound long... currently the price is in a wait-and-see mode

Resistance: 1650, 1800, 62500, 65600 Support: 1530, 1460, 58000, 57200

ETH today: long at 1523, 1535, stop loss 1500, take profit,1580, 1620, 1635

BTC today: 4-hour support oscillation, slowly go long upward, 5850

2026.6.26 Daytime Market Analysis
The long expectations have been wiped out... The short momentum is relatively strong. On-chain ETFs continue to see BTC outflows... The overall direction is bearish... Future expectations lean bearish. Under the newly appointed chair, a tightening bias requiring rate hikes, the possibility of a rate cut is zero... The chance of a unilateral large upward move this year has diminished. Based on news, the tightening bias is leaning toward continuous decline.
Today: The 4-hour chart is currently in a range with downward wicks. It may fall directly today, either sh

Preview: The U.S. Core PCE for May will be released at 8:30 PM tonight, potentially reaching its highest level since October 2023.
On June 25, the Fed’s most closely watched inflation indicator, the PCE, will be released at 8:30 PM tonight. The market expects inflation to rise significantly in May, which may reignite bets on rate hikes. The year-over-year increase in the overall PCE for May is expected to reach 4.1%, up from 3.8% in April, hitting a high since 2023. The core PCE, excluding food and energy, is expected to rise to 3.4% year-over-year, up from 3.3% in April, marking the highest l

2026.6.25 Daytime Market Analysis
The interest rate bearish news has landed, but long expectations have been wiped out. After a slight rebound, beware of continuous bottom-testing... The big upward cycle bottom-fishing won't come so soon. Major macro expectations suggest a possible rate hike in September. After another bottom-test, there may be an opportunity for a rebound long trade.
Today: 4-hour chart slowly declining, long momentum gone. Intraday currently fluctuating about 1500 dollars for reference scalping... [Actual market trends differ, need to apply technical operations] [Current pri

June 24, 2026 Daytime Market Analysis
The daily chart shows a pattern of initially rebounding to a high point before dropping again; the overall environment still favors a rebound, as it is in an oversold zone. Yesterday’s sharp decline is a short-term negative signal...
That day: a partial rally followed by a retreat to support levels... From a technical perspective, there’s a chance for a rebound, but not too high, to prevent another divergence and a rise... After a rally, a pullback occurs, and the price drops too low—long positions need to be combined with real-time trading to catch the bo