WishComeTrue2026

#Gate广场五月交易分享
I’ll take the blame for this! — LayerZero CEO admits protocol flaw
After a round of back-and-forth blame-shifting, it seems the Kelp DAO cross-chain bridge attack finally has a definitive party responsible.
On May 4, LayerZero CEO Bryan Pellegrino publicly posted that the protocol failed to prevent 1/1 single-validator configurations from being used to secure tens of billions of dollars in TVL, reflecting a double misstep in both product design and customer communication. The context for this statement was the April 18 attack on the Kelp DAO cross-chain bridge, which resulted in losses of about $292 million. The attack stemmed from Kelp using LayerZero’s default configuration—1-of-1 DVN, meaning a single-validator mode. After the incident, Kelp provided Telegram screenshots to show that LayerZero staff had reviewed and approved this configuration for as long as two and a half years. Data indicates that at the time, around 47% of LayerZero OApp contracts used the same configuration, exposing assets worth more than $4.5 billion. Currently, Kelp has announced it will discontinue LayerZero and migrate to Chainlink CCIP.
But even so, the question everyone cares about now isn’t who’s responsible—it’s who will pay. On this core demand, neither Kelp DAO nor LayerZero seems to take it seriously. For the unlucky AAVE that was caught in the crossfire, the biggest question is who will help share the 230 million yuan of bad debt. At present, DeFi United, together with the industry, has raised more than $300 million to mount a rescue, and Arbitrum has already frozen the ETH worth $73 million stolen by the hacker. It appears this crisis is gradually subsiding—so the question becomes: can AAVE start buying the dip?

#Gate广场五月交易分享
Bitcoin stabilizes above $80k: The starting point of a new bull market driven by multiple positive factors
As Bitcoin successfully breaks through $81,000 and strongly resists a pullback, the weekly chart shows that the possibility of a “bull return” is increasing. Analyzing the reasons behind this rally reveals that this small bull market is no accident. Continuous inflows of institutional investors, booming subscriptions to Bitcoin ETF products, and the ongoing easing of the macroeconomic environment together form the foundation of this bull run.
Institutional funds accelerate entry, ETFs become the main channel
Since 2024, the craze for Bitcoin spot ETFs on Wall Street has never subsided. Traditional financial institutions like BlackRock and Fidelity issuing Bitcoin ETF products continue to attract institutional funds from pension funds, family offices, and hedge funds worldwide. These products, characterized by compliance, convenience, and low barriers to entry, have become the preferred channel for large traditional capital to enter the crypto market.
Notably, recently, the U.S. SEC has significantly accelerated the approval process for multiple Bitcoin ETFs, offering more product options, and subtly changing the market competition landscape. This proactive regulatory attitude has cleared the final hurdles for large-scale institutional inflows. The continuous increase in ETF holdings has directly driven Bitcoin prices higher.
The macroeconomic environment provides a fertile ground for the crypto bull market
The monetary policies of major global central banks have always been a key variable for the crypto market. Since 2026, the Federal Reserve has signaled more easing in its interest rate decisions, and the gradual decline in inflation data has given policymakers more room to maneuver. Market expectations are that the rate cut cycle will officially begin in the second half of the year, which will significantly reduce the appeal of risk-free assets and push funds to seek higher-yield investments.
Against this backdrop, Bitcoin, as an asset that hedges against dollar devaluation and fiat currency oversupply, is increasingly recognized by mainstream investors for its allocation value. The correlation between Bitcoin, gold, and the US dollar index is undergoing structural changes, and its role as a store of value is gradually being reinforced.
Technical and market sentiment double confirmation
From a technical analysis perspective, Bitcoin experienced several weeks of consolidation and fluctuation before breaking through $80k, with ample chip turnover, laying a solid foundation for subsequent gains. After surpassing $80k, multiple technical indicators show the market is in a strong state, but without signs of excessive bubbles. The monthly MACD golden cross and the long bullish alignment of moving averages on the quarterly chart are both bullish signals.
Risks should not be overlooked
Although Bitcoin surpassing $80k is encouraging, market risks are equally worth vigilance. The high leverage positions in the derivatives market mean that short-term corrections could be more intense. Uncertain regulatory policies, sudden geopolitical risks, and technical disputes over forks could trigger market volatility at any time.
For ordinary investors, enjoying the bull market’s benefits while reasonably controlling positions and managing risks is key to long-term survival. The high volatility characteristic of Bitcoin has never changed; blindly chasing highs is never wise. Standing at the new starting point of $80k, maintaining rationality and respecting the market may be the attitude every participant should adopt.

‍#Gate广场五月交易分享
Have we found the driving force behind the big surge?—Institutional funds accelerating back, creating this mini bull cycle
What exactly happened in early May? Why did Bitcoin suddenly start climbing, and why has the market been so strong—refusing to pull back? Data shows that institutional funds are accelerating their return to crypto assets, and that the allocation pattern is taking shape as “Bitcoin as the main, Ethereum as the secondary.” This round of big gains may well be a bull market engineered by institutions.
According to data from May 5:
Bitcoin spot ETF single-day net inflows reached $532 million, including $335 million contributed by BlackRock’s IBIT, and $184 million in inflows for Fidelity’s FBTC.
Ethereum ETF net inflows on the same day totaled $97.58 million, with BlackRock’s ETHA accounting for $69.48 million, and Fidelity’s FETH accounting for $24.23 million.
In addition, by sorting through top institutional digital currency ETF products, it can be seen that since April, institutional fund inflows have been clearly increasing:
Bitcoin ETFs: the absolute main force in institutional allocation
‌1. BlackRock iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT)‌
This is unquestionably the “money magnet” in this wave of institutional accumulation. On May 1, its single-day net inflow reached $284 million, and on May 5 it surged further to $335 million, leading the entire market for multiple consecutive days. During the nine-day rally from April 14 to April 24, IBIT was also the core channel for fund inflows. In its disclosure, BlackRock’s 2026 chairman said its digital asset–related AUM has approached $150 billion; as a flagship product, IBIT is the core vehicle through which traditional asset managers systematically roll out crypto assets.
‌2. Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC)‌
Right after BlackRock, FBTC recorded inflows of $213 million on May 1 and another $184 million on May 5. Fidelity has been involved in crypto for a long time and has well-developed infrastructure, allowing FBTC to continuously receive incremental funding—reflecting the long-term recognition by long-established asset managers of Bitcoin’s positioning as “digital gold.”
‌3. Ark 21Shares Bitcoin ETF (ARKB)‌
On May 1, it saw net inflows of $88.5 million, performing especially well among smaller and mid-sized Bitcoin ETFs. Cathie Wood’s team has consistently viewed Bitcoin as the “benchmark currency of the digital asset era.” The continued capital attraction of ARKB suggests that some institutional investors agree with this long-term narrative.
‌4. Morgan Stanley Bitcoin ETF (MSBT)‌
On April 24, it recorded net inflows of approximately $11.13 million in a single day, with historical cumulative net inflows of approximately $153 million. As a product launched by one of Wall Street’s top investment banks, the growth in MSBT holdings signals that traditional wealth management channels are increasingly including Bitcoin in clients’ asset allocation portfolios.
Ethereum ETFs: incremental funds begin to follow
‌5. BlackRock iShares Ethereum Trust (ETHA)‌
On May 5, it recorded net inflows of $69.48 million, making it the brightest performer among Ethereum ETFs. In the week prior, ETHA also logged a weekly inflow of $133 million, far surpassing comparable products. BlackRock’s build-out in Ethereum ETFs complements its Bitcoin products, reflecting that some institutions are beginning to view ETH as a “second pillar” in crypto asset allocation.
‌6. Fidelity Ethereum Fund (FETH)‌
On May 5, it recorded net inflows of $24.23 million. However, it’s worth noting that in the previous week, FETH saw a large outflow of $218 million, meaning liquidity has been quite volatile. This reflects that institutions still have differing views on Ethereum—before the upgrades are implemented and the regulatory framework becomes clear, some funds tend to lock in profits on a temporary, phased basis.
This capital flow indicates:
‌1. Institutions are still focusing on Bitcoin as the core allocation: the single-day inflow scale of Bitcoin ETFs is about 5.5 times that of Ethereum, reflecting that mainstream funds in this rally are more inclined to build their crypto exposure through BTC.
‌2. Top asset management firms are leading the direction of fund flows: products from traditional financial giants such as BlackRock, BlackRock, and Fidelity have become the main sources of capital, showing that the traditional financial system’s acceptance of crypto assets continues to rise.
‌3. The market is entering a “structural buying” phase: in the weeks prior, ETF fund flows fluctuated significantly, but the concentrated inflows at the beginning of May broke the outflow trend—showing that after the price broke through $80,000, institutional investors have re-established a bullish stance.
Friends, what do you think about institutional fund inflows fueling this bull market? How long can this “institutional bull” last? Has the market reversed? Leave a comment in the comment section and let’s chat!

#Gate广场五月交易分享
‍#Polymarket每日热点
What will the WTI crude oil price be in May 2026? My bet is A $80. The reasoning is as follows:
1. Geopolitical risks driven by the US-Iran conflict are rapidly diminishing
This is the most direct factor suppressing oil prices in the short term. As is well known, the primary reason for the recent oil price increase has been the US-Iran conflict. Currently, the conflict has quickly moved from a stalemate to a "possibly ending" stage. Just today, U.S. Secretary of State Blinken stated at a press conference that the "epic fury" military operation launched by the U.S. against Iran in late February has concluded, "we have completed this phase of the mission." President Trump also announced a pause on the "Freedom Plan" (the operation where U.S. military assists ships crossing the Strait of Hormuz) and said that the U.S. has made significant progress toward a comprehensive and final agreement with Iran. The probability of a phased agreement being reached in May is very high. The core support for the current high oil prices has loosened, opening space for prices to fall.
2. Clear expectations of increased supply will reverse the supply-demand pattern
Signals of increased production from oil-producing countries have been released. Eight major OPEC+ countries have decided to increase their daily output by 206k barrels starting in May, with further production increases planned for June. Market expectations are shifting from "tight supply" to "balanced supply and demand or slight oversupply." This change in expectations will directly cool the market's bullish sentiment.
3. Demand faces pressure and cannot support excessively high oil prices
Goldman Sachs pointed out in its April report that high oil prices themselves are suppressing demand. When Brent crude hovers around $100 per barrel, combined with high refining margins at that time, the high prices of refined products significantly erode demand, especially in price-sensitive sectors like aviation fuel and petrochemical raw materials. Additionally, the rise of new energy sources such as lithium batteries and natural gas is weakening the position of traditional oil resources. The demand for oil and its derivatives is decreasing year by year, which is the fundamental reason for the long-term decline in oil prices.
My betting strategy is
When the US-Iran conflict becomes tense again and oil prices rise, bet that oil prices will fall to $80, thereby increasing the "bottom-fishing probability" to expand my gains.

#Gate广场五月交易分享
165 million short positions rally! Institutions sweep up 2.7 billion in massive volume—Deep data reveals Bitcoin breaking 80k
1. Macroeconomic risks exhausted and ETF buying momentum insights into Bitcoin surpassing 80,000
Latest macro data shows that the geopolitical situation in the Middle East is cooling significantly, directly triggering a return of risk appetite in global markets. Even more favorable is that the US spot Bitcoin ETF has attracted an astonishing $2.7 billion in net inflows over the past three weeks, pushing total assets past the $100 billion mark.
This “hard currency” buying led by compliant Wall Street funds is rapidly stripping Bitcoin’s pricing power from retail investors. When institutions absorb chips at five times the production rate, physical resistance on the chart drops to zero. From the marginal improvement in this macro environment and continuous ETF buying, the objective answer to the core question of Bitcoin surpassing 80,000 is: this is not just a technical breakthrough but a declaration of value sovereignty based on scarcity. After experiencing the energy and warfare trials in April, digital gold has completed its ultimate upgrade of the safe-haven narrative.
2. 165 million liquidation fuel reveals the physical engine behind Bitcoin breaking 80,000
One of the key indicators for assessing whether the market is sustainable is the leverage liquidation efficiency in the derivatives market. Today’s Bitcoin liquidation data of up to $165 million signals a “short squeeze ignition” that all professional traders should be alert to.
In the past 24 hours, after a brief dip below $80,000, BTC quickly launched a vertical surge. Data shows total contract liquidations across the network reached $165 million. In this massive liquidation pool, short positions dominated overwhelmingly, with $154 million in short positions wiped out during the breakout.
The brutal kill shot is hidden in the micro slice of the last 12 hours. Even as the price surged past $81k, shorts repeatedly tested the high in despair. Of the total $43.51 million in liquidations over 12 hours, $36.45 million were shorts. Long liquidations only amounted to $7.06 million. This scenario—longs nearly unscathed while shorts become fuel—is the physical key to understanding Bitcoin’s breakthrough of 80,000: when short stop-loss orders are forced to turn into market buy orders, the chart forms a self-reinforcing upward hurricane, where any selling is instantly swallowed by the short covering buy orders.
3. Retail traders’ 0.51 extreme baiting to short and institutional 0.76 steadfastness reveal the next trend
If micro liquidation data shows the battlefield results, then the severe breakdown of the long-short ratio directly exposes the extremely distorted “fear of high prices” bias in the entire network’s funds when facing the 80,000 threshold. This is the most scientific objective radar for judging whether the market is in a breakout phase.
The data panel shows that the overall market sentiment is extremely uncomfortable at the new high. Currently, the BN regular account long-short ratio has fallen below the critical threshold, reaching an astonishing 0.5138. OK’s retail long-short ratio is only 0.59. This means the number of bears in the entire network is almost twice the number of bulls! Retail investors are recklessly piling up short positions above 80,000 based on the experience that “it must fall after rising too much.”
However, the main capital controlling the pricing power has given a cold-blooded baiting card. In the BN top-tier trader position long-short ratio, although it has shrunk to 0.7635, it remains far above the retail level of 0.51. This extreme divergence—retail accounts extremely bearish (0.51) while large holders’ positions are relatively high—powerfully answers the subsequent trend after Bitcoin surpasses 80,000: as long as retail traders remain around 0.51 and short positions are still crowded, the main force’s upward push will not stop. The current 81k is not the end but the starting point of this short fuel’s complete exhaustion and the celebration before the next move.

#Gate广场五月交易分享
Israel Launches Its First Official Stablecoin
Israel's Capital Market Authority has approved a stablecoin pegged to the shekel for the first time. Tel Aviv-based cryptocurrency exchange Bits of Gold received authorization to issue the token after two years of evaluation and pilot testing. The token is called BILS, developed in partnership with the Solana network and crypto custody giant Fireblocks, with auditing provided by one of the Big Four accounting firms, Ernst & Young. The stablecoin market has grown rapidly over the past 18 months, now exceeding $300 billion, mainly driven by the establishment of formal regulatory frameworks in major markets like the United States.
Although it is just a simple news story, it carries significant implications for the crypto space:
1. ‌Driving the Global Trend of “Localized Stablecoins”‌
As the first regulated stablecoin linked to Israel’s new shekel, BILS represents a proactive effort by a sovereign nation to maintain monetary sovereignty in the digital asset realm. It directly competes with dollar-pegged stablecoins like USDT and USDC, aiming to break their dominance in on-chain payments and DeFi, and to encourage financial innovation based on the local currency.
This model may be emulated by other economies, especially those seeking to reduce dependence on the dollar and strengthen financial autonomy, thereby accelerating the formation of a “multi-currency pegged stablecoin” landscape.
2. ‌Enhancing Compliance and Security Standards‌
BILS’s reserves are audited by Ernst & Young and held in independent accounts within Israel, with funds supported by Fireblocks’ custody services, reflecting high standards of transparency and security. This “regulation + audit + professional custody” integrated approach sets a new compliance benchmark for global stablecoin issuance and may pressure some non-compliant projects to improve governance.
3. ‌Promoting Blockchain Infrastructure Adoption‌
BILS operates on the Solana blockchain and has undergone two years of sandbox testing to verify its stability and scalability. This not only boosts Solana’s recognition under global regulatory environments but also indicates that mainstream public chains are gradually becoming viable underlying infrastructure for national-level financial systems.
4. ‌Accelerating Global Stablecoin Regulatory Coordination‌
The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) has repeatedly warned that fragmented regulation across countries could lead to market fragmentation and regulatory arbitrage. Israel’s early issuance of a national fiat-backed stablecoin is effectively a strategic move in the global regulatory game, potentially prompting more countries to accelerate legislation and foster a more unified cross-border stablecoin regulatory framework.
5. ‌Boosting Institutional and Public Confidence‌
By early 2026, over 25% of Israelis had participated in crypto trading, with more than 20% still holding digital assets. The launch of BILS helps reduce ordinary users’ concerns about crypto volatility, increases the adoption of stablecoins in daily payments, cross-border remittances, and on-chain financial activities, further promoting mainstream adoption.

#Gate广场五月交易分享
May 6 Ethereum Market Analysis
Short-term trend: Ethereum price has recently been fluctuating between 2360 and 2398, with a high rally that failed to break through continuously, showing multiple upward pushes followed by pullbacks.
Support and resistance:
Support level: Around 2352-2360. If the price pulls back and stabilizes, it can be considered a valid short-term support.
Resistance level: 2398. If the price breaks above the resistance, it is expected to continue rising toward 2450.
Market characteristics: The obvious "up and down" oscillation pattern, with the price repeatedly fluctuating near the moving averages, indicates a market in wait-and-see mode. The real showdown may occur tonight, with a higher probability of an upward breakout.
Trading suggestions:
Long position strategy: If the price pulls back to 2360-2363 and stabilizes, consider a light long position, with a stop loss at 2355, targeting 2385-2398.
Short position strategy: If the price hits resistance at 2398-2400 and pulls back, consider a short-term light short position, with a stop loss at 2405, and take profit at 2375-2365.
Trading principles: Follow the trend, control position size, and observe during short-term oscillations.
Avoid frequent chasing of highs or lows, and strictly implement stop-loss and take-profit levels.

The current U.S. stablecoin legislation is entering a critical window:
The deadlock over the CLARITY Act has been broken. In May 2026, bipartisan senators reached a compromise on stablecoin reward provisions: crypto exchanges can issue rewards to users based on real transactions and network usage (such as consumption and transfers), but passive holding yields are prohibited. This compromise clears a key obstacle that previously stalled the legislation, and the Senate Banking Committee is expected to hold a vote as early as the week of May 11, 2026. The prediction market Polymarket has increased the probability of the bill being enacted in 2026 to 55%. However, new ethical clause disputes still pose a certain threat to the bill's passage.
The implementation details of the GENIUS Act are accelerating. The bill was officially signed into law in July 2025. Since 2026, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC), Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN), and Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) have gradually released supporting rules, covering licensing frameworks, investment rules, and anti-money laundering sanctions compliance requirements, building a federal-level regulatory system for payment-based stablecoins.
Global regulatory trends. Hong Kong’s Stablecoin Regulations came into effect in August 2025, and the first two stablecoin licenses were issued in April 2026; the regulatory transition period under the EU’s MiCA framework will also end in July 2026, as major economies accelerate the formation of their regulatory frameworks. #Gate广场五月交易分享

#Gate广场五月交易分享
Cryptocurrency legislation expectations boost bullish sentiment! Bitcoin returns to the $80k level
Bitcoin broke above $80,000 for the first time in three months, while Asian stock markets approached record highs. This largest global cryptocurrency rose 2.1% on Monday to $80,594, reaching its highest level since January 31. Other smaller tokens, including Ethereum, also gained.
As cryptocurrencies rise, the MSCI (159577) Asia stock index is approaching the record high set in February. Last week, tech company earnings exceeded expectations, boosting investor risk appetite and driving a stock market rebound. The market is currently digesting conflicting signals regarding the Iran situation.
U.S. President Trump stated that the U.S. will begin guiding ships unrelated to conflicts through the Strait of Hormuz, but an Iranian senior official warned that the Iranian government would consider any U.S. intervention in the strait as a violation of the ceasefire agreement. Bitcoin hit a record high slightly above $126,000 last October, followed by months of decline, dropping to around $60,000 in February. Since then, the token has gradually recovered, partly due to improved institutional demand. Data shows that U.S. Bitcoin exchange-traded funds recorded a net inflow of $630 million last Friday.
Sean McNulty, Head of Derivatives Trading for Asia-Pacific at FalconX, said that institutional activity in the derivatives market indicates "high confidence in Bitcoin reaching $85,000 mid-month."
Richard Galvin, Executive Chairman of cryptocurrency investment firm DACM, said that market optimism about the U.S. possibly reaching an agreement on key stablecoin yield terms has also boosted trader confidence, potentially paving the way for cryptocurrency policy progress in the Senate. He added that it is still in the "early stages," but $80,000 has been "an important psychological threshold."
As of press time, Bitcoin has given back some gains, trading slightly above $80,000. Carolyn Molron, co-founder of Orbit Markets, said that a clear breakthrough of the $80,000 level would "provide further upward momentum for this type of asset."

#Gate广场五月交易分享
The capital seesaw effect reappears—Bitcoin sucking blood from gold?
Recently, the most “money-attracting” asset in the financial markets besides U.S. stocks is Bitcoin, which today surged strongly past $80,500, shining brightly. In stark contrast, gold fell below $4,600, losing momentum. Ironically, a similar situation occurred earlier this year, when gold was once praised and broke through $5,500, while Bitcoin was ignored, dropping below $60,000. Just a few months later, the situation reversed completely. Does this switch in status imply the reemergence of the capital seesaw effect, with Bitcoin biting back and draining the gold market?
1. Core phenomenon: structural differentiation in capital rotation
‌Real-time price divergence‌
‌Bitcoin‌: Broke $80k (RMB 552k) on May 5, 2026, with a daily increase of 1.13%, rebounding 45% from April lows;
‌Gold‌: Spot price hovers around $4,587 per ounce, down 18% from the early-year high, ETF holdings drop to the lowest since 2024.
‌Historical ratio change‌
Bitcoin/gold ratio fell from the 2025 peak of 40 ounces per BTC (1 BTC = 40 ounces of gold) to the current 17.4 ounces per BTC, but remains above the 10-year average (8-12 ounces), indicating Bitcoin’s relative valuation advantage still exists.
2. The fundamental driving force behind capital flow
(1)‌ Sensitivity differences to liquidity‌
‌Bitcoin‌: Highly sensitive to global financial liquidity
After the Fed paused interest rate hikes, leverage in the crypto market quickly rebounded (perpetual contract funding rates turned positive)
Spot ETF weekly net inflow of $2.4 billion, accounting for 15% of daily trading volume
‌Gold‌: Suppressed by real interest rates and the dollar
U.S. 10-year TIPS yield rose to 1.8%, a new high since 2025
Dollar index stabilized above 108, increasing gold holding costs
(2)‌ Rebuilding risk attributes‌
Bitcoin attracts young capital with its narrative of digital safe-haven asset, while gold is sold off by institutions for dollars during liquidity crises.
(3)‌ On-chain data reveals capital migration‌:
‌Bitcoin on-chain activity cools but whale accumulation increases‌:
Active addresses drop to 890k/day (a 2-year low), but addresses holding >1,000 BTC rise to 41.5%
‌Gold ETF continues to bleed‌:
Global gold ETF outflows for 11 consecutive weeks, with total holdings down by 197 tons (about $12 billion)
3. Medium- and long-term positioning: complementary rather than substitutive
‌Bitcoin: a volatile asset for the digital age‌
Advantages‌:
Driven by halving cycles that increase scarcity (block rewards to drop to 0.78 BTC in 2028)
Accelerating institutionalization (U.S. government holds 330k BTC, accounting for 1.6% of circulating supply)
‌Bottlenecks‌:
Volatility exceeds 80% (gold only 15%), not yet incorporated into mainstream reserve assets
‌Gold: the ultimate anchor of the credit system‌
Indispensability‌:
Global central banks increased gold holdings by 228 tons in Q1 2026, with China’s reserves rising to 4.9%
Millennium currency consensus supports its ability to resist extreme risks (such as sovereign debt crises)
‌Practical constraints‌:
Physical delivery is inefficient and difficult to meet the transaction needs of the digital era

‍#Gate广场五月交易分享
Trump's claim that "the U.S. holds 300k BTC and will not sell"
Recently, a piece of news about Donald Trump has been widely circulated in the crypto market—"The U.S. government holds about 300k Bitcoins and will not sell." This statement quickly sparked market discussion, with many investors even interpreting it as an important signal that Bitcoin has entered a "state endorsement era."
But if we analyze the source of the information and the policy background, this claim is not entirely accurate.
1. Source of the message: Not from Trump himself
First, it needs to be clarified that this statement did not come directly from Donald Trump, but from his son Eric Trump during a Bitcoin conference.
At that event, Eric Trump mentioned that the U.S. government currently holds about 300k BTC and implied that these assets would not be sold. This view was then propagated secondarily and gradually evolved into a "Trump statement" version, spreading rapidly on social media.
This dissemination path itself has already planted the seed of information bias.
2. 300k BTC: Basically true, but considered a "historical legacy"
From a data perspective, the claim of "300k BTC" is not unfounded.
For a long time, the U.S. government has confiscated a large amount of Bitcoin through law enforcement actions (such as cracking down on dark web platforms, cybercrime, etc.), with the most typical case being the "Silk Road" incident. These assets are usually managed by the United States Marshals Service and have been gradually disposed of through auctions in the past.
Therefore, the current market generally estimates that the U.S. government holds between 200k and 300k BTC, which can be considered "basically true."
But it should be noted that these BTC are not actively allocated but are law enforcement assets passively acquired. Their nature differs fundamentally from sovereign funds or central bank reserves.
3. "Will not sell": Policy inclination, not a confirmed fact
What truly causes market sentiment to fluctuate is the phrase "will not sell."
From a policy perspective, the Trump camp has indeed shown clear signals of crypto friendliness in recent years. For example, discussions around a "strategic Bitcoin reserve" have gradually heated up, similar to gold reserves, viewing Bitcoin as a long-term strategic asset.
But the issues are:
- The U.S. government has auctioned BTC multiple times in the past, not holding it long-term
- The "strategic reserve" remains more at the policy conceptual level
- There is no legally binding mechanism explicitly stating "never sell"
In other words, a more accurate current statement should be:
👉 Policy direction may lean toward reducing sales, but "never selling" has not been institutionalized or confirmed.
4. Why is the market so excited?
Despite the information bias, this news still spread rapidly, reflecting the market's high sensitivity to "national-level buying."
At this stage, Bitcoin's price is largely constrained by macro liquidity and selling pressure structures. If the U.S. government shifts from a "potential seller" to a "long-term holder," the symbolic significance far exceeds actual supply and demand changes:
- Reduced selling pressure (fewer auctions)
- Narrative upgrade (transition from risk assets to reserve assets)
- Strengthened policy endorsement (sovereign-level recognition)
This is also why similar statements, even if unconfirmed, can influence market sentiment in a short period.
5. Beyond truth and falsehood, the more important thing is the trend
Returning to the initial question—"Is it true that Trump said the U.S. holds 300k BTC and will not sell?"
The answer is:
✔️ Holding scale: roughly true
❗ Source of information: not from U.S. President Trump himself, but from his son Eric Trump
❗ Not selling: not officially confirmed
But more than the truth or falsehood, what’s more worth paying attention to is that such narratives are gradually becoming one of the main market themes.

#Gate广场五月交易分享
BTC has regained above $80k, but on-chain activity has dropped to a two-year low
Bitcoin today strongly broke through $80,500, reaching a new high in this rebound, but one indicator is worth noting, Santiment data shows wallet activity hitting a two-year low, with only 531k wallets transferring daily, and 203k newly created.
🔍 Core Contradiction Analysis
‌1. The contrast between on-chain calmness and price enthusiasm‌
Active addresses sharply decreased: Currently, about 531k wallets transfer daily, with only 203k new wallets created (down more than 40% from the 2024 peak), the lowest level since March 2024.
‌Trading depth shrinks‌: Despite BTC breaking above $80k, on-chain trading volume has not expanded accordingly. During the nearly 5-week price increase of 22%, on-chain participation remained subdued.
‌
2. The market essence behind the divergence‌
Stock game characteristics: The rally is mainly driven by leverage in the futures market (shorts liquidated $359 million within 24 hours), rather than new capital entering. Spot ETF weekly net inflows are $630 million, but mainly due to institutional rebalancing rather than incremental funds.
‌Increasing concentration of holdings‌: Medium wallets (100-1000 BTC) inflow to exchanges has fallen to 2023 levels, while long-term holders’ share of holdings has risen to a historic high, indicating chips are accelerating to be concentrated among whales.
3. Reduced selling pressure favors upward movement?
The inflow of medium wallets in Binance is at a 2023 low, indicating that selling pressure is actually very small.
⚠️ Hidden Risks in the Divergence
‌Liquidity trap‌:
BTC reserves on exchanges have decreased for 7 consecutive weeks (a total outflow of 105k BTC), but buy-side depth remains insufficient. If a sudden sell-off occurs, a liquidity crisis similar to the Luna collapse in 2022 could reemerge.
‌Leverage bubble buildup‌:
Perpetual contract funding rates are low, but demand for bullish contracts above $80,000 in the options market has surged, with open interest in derivatives approaching historical peaks, indicating the market is overly reliant on leverage to sustain the rally.
‌Stagnation of new ecosystem growth‌:
The shrinking number of new wallets reflects stagnating user growth. On-chain application indicators such as DeFi locked value and NFT trading volume have not broken previous highs, indicating the current rally lacks fundamental ecosystem support.
📉 Market Outlook and Strategies
Scenario 1: Fake breakout attracting buy (probability 60%)
‌Trigger condition‌: Unable to hold above $80,500 within 3 days, with a single exchange deposit >5,000 BTC
‌Target‌: Quickly fall back to $74,680 (April low), with an extreme test of $65,000 (institutional ETF cost zone)
‌Strategy‌: Use high-position put options, with a stop-loss at $81,300
Scenario 2: Short squeeze rally (probability 40%)
‌Trigger condition‌: Weekly close above $82,000, Coinbase shows withdrawals of ten-thousand BTC level
‌Target‌: Short-term push to $85,000, but strong resistance exists in the $88,000–$95,000 range
‌Strategy‌: Combine spot holdings with protective put options to avoid naked long positions
‌
On-chain monitoring focus‌:
Whale dormant address anomalies (monitor wallets inactive for >10 years)
bn/Cbase large transaction temperature difference (currently, Cbase daily inflow once reached 8,500 BTC)

Who can refuse the Gate X RedBull racing gift box merchandise? 🔥
#Gate广场五月交易分享 is so hot that it’s driving a fierce race up the rankings—posting guarantees a 100% hit on the red envelope, and there are also collectible-grade prizes waiting for you!
This wave of merchandise—everyone in the know wants it:
🥇 Top 1-3: Gate X RedBull building block racing gift box + $100U tokens + $1000 Position Experience Voucher
🥈 Top 4-10: Quick-dry sports set + $500 Position Experience Voucher
🥉 Top 11-100: Gate Ukey security key & high-value experience vouchers—everyone has a chance.
💡 Ranking-rush mantra: Post often, post great content, and interact more! The more hardcore your takes are, the higher your ranking.
👉 https://www.gate.com/post
Details: https://www.gate.com/announcements/article/50981 #BTC #ETH #GT

#Gate广场五月交易分享
Little Trump’s empty-handed wolf?
The NASDAQ-listed Bitcoin mining company, American Bitcoin Company, is facing intense controversy over its business model. Forbes released an investigative report this week accusing the company of essentially being a “arbitrage tool” that uses the Trump brand effect to attract retail investors (especially MAGA supporters), resulting in retail investor losses of approximately $500 million since going public last September.
Forbes accuses: Overpriced listing and “empty-handed wolf”
　　The report states that American Bitcoin Company raises funds by repeatedly issuing overvalued stocks to directly buy Bitcoin on the open market, rather than primarily through mining. Since going public in September, its stock price has plummeted over 92% from a peak of $14.52, and the company's market value has shrunk from $13.2 billion to about $1.24 billion. In contrast, co-founder Eric Trump’s personal net worth has increased from about $190 million to $280 million during this period. The report also points out that the company actually has only two full-time employees, with daily operations mainly outsourced to partner Hut 8.
Eric Trump’s counterattack: Accusing “political motives” and “Chinese propaganda”
　　Eric Trump fiercely attacked the report on social media platform X, calling it “politically motivated propaganda,” and directed his criticism at Forbes’ owner—Hong Kong investment firm. He responded by showcasing the company's operational data: holding over 7,000 Bitcoin, possessing 28 EH/s of computing power, and nearly 90k mining machines, emphasizing that revenue in the fourth quarter increased by 22% quarter-over-quarter to $78.3 million.
Controversy focus and industry observations
　　Despite Eric Trump’s vigorous defense, market reactions have been severe. As of this week, American Bitcoin Company’s stock has fallen about 85% from its IPO price. However, a few institutions still maintain a “buy” rating.
　　The core of this debate is whether the company's huge market value is based on solid fundamentals or mainly relies on Trump’s brand premium. As Bitcoin prices retreat from their highs, the risks of its “large-scale hoarding” strategy are gradually being exposed to the public.

‍#Gate广场四月发帖挑战
‍#加密市场回升
Have the U.S. and Iran stopped fighting? How should we strategize
On April 15, U.S. President Trump said in a recent interview that the war against Iran has “ended.” At the same time, he hinted that in the next two days, the U.S. and Iran may return to the negotiating table in Pakistan. Driven by the news, U.S. stocks surged overnight, gold rose in tandem, crude oil fell sharply, and after Bitcoin briefly spiked higher, it then oscillated and pulled back; as of now, it’s not up but down. At present, it looks like the chances that both sides of the U.S.-Iran conflict will stop fighting and seek peace are very high. The main point of contention—Iran’s pursuit of nuclear weapons—is that, under the proposal to pause uranium enrichment technology research for 20 years, Iran is very likely to make a concession and address the urgent problem of U.S. forces pressing right up at the doorstep.
I think the “ceiling” of this rebound is in the 76000-77500 area—this is the middle line of the Bollinger Bands on the weekly chart. If it breaks through this level, it would mean the trend could reverse, but for now, that seems difficult. Aggressive family members can open a short position from this level and wait for the price to rebound to above 76000 to add to their position; for the more prudent family members, it’s safer to wait to open a short position near 76000.
Given the changes in the situation, and with the direction of gold remaining unclear, investors can focus on setting up short positions in Bitcoin on rallies. Meanwhile, considering that the U.S.-Iran war may be moving toward an end, you can also short some crude oil on rallies. For gold, since the market direction is still uncertain, it’s recommended that everyone mainly adopt a wait-and-see approach.

#Gate广场四月发帖挑战
Whale sell-off triggers the most brutal "Soul-Ending Blade," ARIA drops to zero overnight
📉 Early this morning, it was definitely a nightmare for retail investors holding ARIA, as the price briefly surged to $1.06 last night before suddenly turning downward, declining all the way down, and at 00:00, experiencing the most aggressive sell-off, with the price dropping 90% overnight, closing at only $0.089.
On-chain monitoring data shows that suspected ARIA-related addresses concentrated selling about 45.64 million ARIA tokens early this morning, exchanging approximately 5.42 million USDT at an average price of about $0.12.
Meanwhile, the project's circulating market cap also plummeted from about $315 million to roughly $38.5 million, significantly impacting market confidence.
🔎 On-chain fund flow
Data indicates that this batch of sold tokens was transferred from the exchange Gate to on-chain wallets via 8 wallet addresses about three weeks ago. The sudden concentration of selling has sparked speculation about large holders withdrawing funds or early profit-taking.
📊 Market outlook
It’s worth noting that this is not ARIA’s first flash crash. On April 9th, the price also plummeted over 90% in a single day, dropping from a high of $0.70 to $0.059, but then started to rebound, recovering all losses and rising to a new all-time high of 1.1298. Whether this decline will repeat the previous “routine” remains to be seen. Bold investors might consider small positions for bottom-fishing and set stop-loss orders below yesterday’s low.
🌱 A word for investors
In a bull market, making money depends on courage;
In a volatile market, survival depends on discipline.
There will always be new opportunities in the market, but capital only comes once.
Learning to respect risks is the key to going further in this market.